Imtiaz Dharssi

Though coarse in spatial resolution, the nearly all weather measurements from passive microwave sensors can help in improving the spatio‐temporal coverage of optical and thermal infrared sensors for monitoring vegetation changes on the land surface. This study demonstrates the use of vegetation optical depth (VOD) retrievals from the Soil Moisture Active Passive mission for capturing the vegetation alterations from the recent 2019 to 2020 Australian bushfires and drought. The impact of vegetation disturbances on terrestrial water budget is examined by assimilating the VOD retrievals into a dynamic phenology model. The results demonstrate that assimilating VOD observations lead to improved simulation of evapotranspiration, runoff, and soil moisture states. The study also demonstrates that the vegetation changes from the 2019 to 2020 Australian drought and fires led to significant modifications in the partitioning of evaporative and runoff fluxes, resulting in increased bare soil evaporation, reduced transpiration, and higher runoff.

The Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric high-resolution Regional Reanalysis for Australia (BARRA) is the first atmospheric regional reanalysis over a large region covering Australia, New Zealand, and Southeast Asia. The production of the reanalysis with approximately 12 km horizontal resolution – BARRA-R – is well underway with completion expected in 2019. This paper describes the numerical weather forecast model, the data assimilation methods, the forcing and observational data used to produce BARRA-R, and analyses results from the 2003–2016 reanalysis. BARRA-R provides a realistic depiction of the meteorology at and near the surface over land as diagnosed by temperature, wind speed, surface pressure, and precipitation. Comparing against the global reanalyses ERA-Interim and MERRA-2, BARRA-R scores lower root mean square errors when evaluated against (point-scale) 2 m temperature, 10 m wind speed, and surface pressure observations. It also shows reduced biases in daily 2 m temperature maximum and minimum at 5 km resolution and a higher frequency of very heavy precipitation days at 5 and 25 km resolution when compared to gridded satellite and gauge analyses. Some issues with BARRA-R are also identified: biases in 10 m wind, lower precipitation than observed over the tropical oceans, and higher precipitation over regions with higher elevations in south Asia and New Zealand. Some of these issues could be improved through dynamical downscaling of BARRA-R fields using convective-scale (<2 km) models.

The McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index used in Australia for operational fire warnings has a component representing fuel availability called the Drought Factor (DF). The DF is partly based on soil moisture deficit, calculated as either the Keetch‐Byram Drought Index (KBDI) or Mount's Soil Dryness Index (MSDI). The KBDI and MSDI are simplified water balance models driven by observation based daily rainfall and temperature. In this work, gridded KBDI and MSDI analyses are computed at a horizontal resolution of 5 km and are verified against in‐situ soil moisture observations. Also verified is another simple model called the Antecedent Precipitation Index (API). Soil moisture analyses from the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system as well as remotely sensed soil wetness retrievals from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) are also verified. The verification shows that the NWP soil wetness analyses have greater skill and smaller biases than the KBDI, MSDI and API analyses. This is despite the NWP system having a coarse horizontal resolution and not using observed precipitation. The average temporal correlations (root mean square difference) between cosmic ray soil moisture monitoring facility observations and modeled or remotely sensed soil wetness are 0.82 (0.15 ±0.02), 0.66 (0.33 ±0.07), 0.77 (0.20 ±0.03), 0.74 (0.22 ±0.03) and 0.83 (0.18 ±0.04) for NWP, KBDI, MSDI, API and ASCAT. The results from this study suggests that analyses of soil moisture can be greatly improved by using physically based land surface models, remote sensing measurements and data assimilation.

Modern land surface model simulations capture soil profile water movement through the use of soil hydraulics sub-models, but good hydraulic parameterisations are often lacking, especially in the tropics. We present much-improved gridded data sets of hydraulic parameters for surface soil for the critical area of tropical South America, describing soil profile water movement across the region to 30 cm depth. Optimal hydraulic parameter values are given for the Brooks and Corey, Campbell, van Genuchten–Mualem and van Genuchten–Burdine soil hydraulic models, which are widely used hydraulic sub-models in land surface models. This has been possible through interpolating soil measurements from several sources through the SOTERLAC soil and terrain data base and using the most recent pedotransfer functions (PTFs) derived for South American soils. All soil parameter data layers are provided at 15 arcsec resolution and available for download, this being 20x higher resolution than the best comparable parameter maps available to date. Specific examples are given of the use of PTFs and the importance highlighted of using PTFs that have been locally parameterised and that are not just based on soil texture. We discuss current developments in soil hydraulic modelling and how high-resolution parameter maps such as these can improve the simulation of vegetation development and productivity in land surface models.

We describe the HadGEM2 family of climate configurations of the Met Office Unified Model, MetUM. The concept of a model "family" comprises a range of specific model configurations incorporating different levels of complexity but with a common physical framework. The HadGEM2 family of configurations includes atmosphere and ocean components, with and without a vertical extension to include a well-resolved stratosphere, and an Earth-System (ES) component which includes dynamic vegetation, ocean biology and atmospheric chemistry. The HadGEM2 physical model includes improvements designed to address specific systematic errors encountered in the previous climate configuration, HadGEM1, namely Northern Hemisphere continental temperature biases and tropical sea surface temperature biases and poor variability. Targeting these biases was crucial in order that the ES configuration could represent important biogeochemical climate feedbacks. Detailed descriptions and evaluations of particular HadGEM2 family members are included in a number of other publications, and the discussion here is limited to a summary of the overall performance using a set of model metrics which compare the way in which the various configurations simulate present-day climate and its variability.

Currently, no extensive, near real time, global soil moisture observation network exists. Therefore, the Met Office global soil moisture analysis scheme has instead used observations of screen temperature and humidity. A number of new space-borne remote sensing systems, operating at microwave frequencies, have been developed that provide a more direct retrieval of surface soil moisture. These systems are attractive since they provide global data coverage and the horizontal resolution is similar to weather forecasting models. Several studies show that measurements of normalised backscatter (surface soil wetness) from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) on the meteorological operational (MetOp) satellite contain good quality information about surface soil moisture. This study describes methods to convert ASCAT surface soil wetness measurements to volumetric surface soil moisture together with bias correction and quality control. A computationally efficient nudging scheme is used to assimilate the ASCAT volumetric surface soil moisture data into the Met Office global soil moisture analysis. This ASCAT nudging scheme works alongside a soil moisture nudging scheme that uses observations of screen temperature and humidity. Trials, using the Met Office global Unified Model, of the ASCAT nudging scheme show a positive impact on forecasts of screen temperature and humidity for the tropics, North America and Australia. A comparison with in-situ soil moisture measurements from the US also indicates that assimilation of ASCAT surface soil wetness improves the soil moisture analysis. Assimilation of ASCAT surface soil wetness measurements became operational during July 2010.

Currently, no extensive global soil moisture observation network exists. Therefore, the Met Office global soil moisture analysis scheme has instead used observations of screen temperature and humidity. A number of new space-borne remote sensing systems, operating at microwave frequencies, have been developed that provide a more direct retrieval of surface soil moisture. These systems are attractive since they provide global data coverage and the horizontal resolution is similar to weather forecasting models. Several studies show that measurements of normalised backscatter (surface soil wetness) from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) on the meteorological operational (MetOp) satellite contain good quality information about surface soil moisture. This note describes methods to convert ASCAT surface soil wetness measurements to volumetric surface soil moisture together with bias correction and quality control. A computationally efficient nudging scheme is used to assimilate the ASCAT volumetric surface soil moisture data into the Met Office global soil moisture analysis. This ASCAT nudging scheme works alongside a soil moisture nudging scheme that uses observations of screen temperature and humidity. Trials, using the Met Office global Unified Model, of the ASCAT nudging scheme show a positive impact on forecasts of screen temperature and humidity for the tropics, North America and Australia. A comparison with in-situ soil moisture measurements from the US also indicates that assimilation of ASCAT surface soil wetness improves the soil moisture analysis. Assimilation of ASCAT surface soil wetness measurements became operational during July 2010.