Agnieszka Rutkowska

Climate change is affecting the intensity and frequency of precipitation. The main objective was to assess future changes in precipitation patterns in Poland. Ensembles of daily precipitation projections for 70 stations from CMIP5 and CMIP6 under RCP(SSP)4.5, RCP(SSP)8.5 pathways were statistically downscaled using the Quantile Perturbation Method (QPM), covering the reference period 1961–1990 and future period 2071–2100. We assessed annual and seasonal (winter, summer) changes in 12 extreme Precipitation Indices (PIs), their distributions across Poland, and shifts in design annual maximum (AM) precipitation intensities. Statistical measures included distribution fitting, Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency curves, and return periods. The projected changes (CMIP6‐8.5) in summer include: increase in the length of consecutive dry days (5%, on average), number of heavy precipitation days (4%) and 1‐, 3‐, 5‐day maximum intensity (8%, 6%, 5%), and decrease in the number of wet days (6%) and length of consecutive wet days (6%). In winter, projections show an increase in the number of heavy precipitation days (30%), 1‐,3‐, 5‐day maximum intensity (15%, 13%, 12%), and total precipitation (11%). The changes vary across Poland, with a more intense increase in the number of heavy precipitation days in the north‐west (summer) and in the 1‐day maximum intensity in the south (winter), higher precipitation totals in the south, southeast and coastal areas (winter), and a decrease in total precipitation in the south and east (summer). Uncertainty is large for the number of heavy precipitation days and maximum intensities, while it is low for total precipitation and the number of wet and dry days. Future return periods of extreme events are projected to shorten. A 100‐year 1‐day AM intensity can become a ‐year intensity. The results can be applied in flood and drought management plans, helping to adapt to future changes in precipitation patterns.

This editorial provides a definitive review of ten articles published in the Special Issue of the journal Water, entitled “Water Resource Management: Hydrological Modelling, Hydrological Cycles, and Hydrological Prediction”

The aim of this article is to analyse the spatial variability of SNQ, the average annual minimum river flow, as well as SNQm (m = 1, 2, …12), the average monthly minimum river flow in Poland. The data were obtained from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute (IMWM-NRI) in the form of the daily flow series from the period between 01 Nov 1990 and 31 Oct 2020 from 433 gauging cross-sections located within the territory of Poland. The results of the analyses are presented on maps of the physiographic regions of Poland (the Coastlands, the Lakelands, the Lowlands, the Highlands, the Carpathians and the Sudety Mountains). In order to compare SNqm – the unit average minimum monthly flow between the physiographic regions, the Kruskal-Wallis test with the Dunn (Bonferroni) adjustment was performed. In order to evaluate the spatial variability of the SNqm, the hypothesis was verified for each gauging station that the Spearman correlation coefficient between the SNqm and the zero point of the gauge was different from zero. The SNqm flow changed over the year. As expected, the highest values were observed in March and April, and the lowest in July and August. Regardless of the month, the rivers in the central part of Poland (the Lowlands) were less water abundant than those in other regions of the country while the greatest flows were observed in the mountain rivers. Statistically, no difference was observed between the SNqm in the Coastlands, the Carpathians and the Sudety Mts., and in nearly all of the months between the SNqm in the Lakelands and the Lowlands. In the whole territory of Poland, the river flow was dependent on the altitude of the catchment, while the strongest correlation was observed in the mountain regions.

River intermittence was studied based on data from hydrological monitoring in Poland. We screened the entire state database and two another data sources applying the criterion for zero-flow event: discharge less than 0.0005 m 3∙s –1, and found five intermittent rivers with catchment area from 9.2 to 303.7 km 2. We aimed at finding associations between intermittence and climatic driving forces (temperature and precipitation), and between intermittence and anthropogenic activity. We used the Spearman correlation coefficient, circular statistics, and statistical tests for trend. The concentration of zero-flow days, mostly in summer, and the decreasing trend in the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index ( SPEI) in all catchments at various aggregation levels, and an increasing trend in the total number of zero-flow days and in the maximum length of zero flow events in two rivers, were detected. The strong negative correlation (–0.62 ≤ ρ < 0) between intermittence and the SPEI backward lagged in time showed that intermittence resulted from prolonged deficits in climatic water balance due to increasing evapotranspiration. The reaction of the Noteć catchment, amplified by the anthropogenic pressure (brown coal mines), was reflected in the atypical shape of the rose diagram and in inhomogeneities in river discharges. The results show that the rose diagram can serve as an indicator of the degree of anthropogenic impact on runoff conditions.

Even though chinchillas have been farmed for a century, there are not many studies concerning their behaviour in captivity or their optimal housing conditions, both of which are important factors in the assessment of their welfare. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of different cage types on chinchillas’ behaviour and their reactions towards humans. Female chinchillas (n = 12) were kept in three types of cages: standard with a wire floor (S); standard with a deep litter floor of shavings (SR); and enlarged with a deep litter floor of shavings (LR). Animals spent 11 weeks in each type of cage. The chinchillas’ reactions toward humans were observed via intruder test. Ethograms were prepared based on round-the-clock video recordings. The activity of the chinchillas was compared, taking into account the different cage types and the animals’ varying responses to the hand test. The generalized ordered logistic regression model was used to ascertain whether cage type has an effect on a chinchilla’s behaviour towards humans. To compare the time distribution of various activity between chinchillas, the non-parametric Scheirer–Ray–Hare test was used. Animals kept in LR cages presented significantly less timid reactions in comparison to those kept in S and SR cages. The chinchillas spent most of their time resting (68% of the day), in locomotion (23%), and eating or drinking (8%); they spent only 1% on grooming behaviour. Cage enrichment generally reduced the fear of humans. However, the average chinchilla response to the hand test was classified in each type of cage as “cautious”. Analyses of the ethograms indicated that the chinchillas were active mostly during the dark stage of the day. In conclusion, the larger cage size and its enrichment (particularly litter) reduced the fearfulness and passivity of the animals, which could be evidence of better welfare conditions.

The proper assessment of design rainfalls with long return periods is very important because they are inputs for many flood studies. In this paper, estimations are performed on daily design rainfall totals from 16 meteorological stations located in the area of the Upper Vistula River Basin (UVB), Poland. The study material consists of a historical series of daily rainfall totals from the period of 1960–2021. The peak over threshold (POT) method is used, and the rainfall depth over threshold is assumed to follow the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) with parameters estimated from Hill statistics. Alternatively, the competitive method based on annual maxima (AM) is applied. The theoretical distribution of AM is assumed to follow a theoretical distribution function selected by using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) from a family of seven candidate distributions, the parameters of which are estimated by using the maximum likelihood method. The two methods are compared by using the root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean deviation error (MDE) criteria. It is found that the POT-based method with GPD and Hill estimators outperform the AM-based method when considering the highest rainfall events. The confidence intervals of the design rainfalls, derived by using the Monte Carlo simulation method, reflects their large spatial diversity across the UVB. It is shown that the station’s altitude strongly correlates with the threshold, variance, and design rainfall depth of the GPD. This proves the advantage of the GPD with Hill estimates, namely that it can accurately reflect the spatial properties of rainfall and its variability in the UVB. Results can be applied in water-management applications related to floods.

Dokonano oceny zasobności gleb Polski w fosfor przyswajalny na podstawie wyników badań agrochemicznych prowadzonych w latach 2016–2020 przez okręgowe stacje chemiczno-rolnicze. Wartości mediany zawartości gleb w P2O5 w klasie zasobności średniej stanowiły przyjętą wartość referencyjną, w odniesieniu do której wyliczone zostały potrzeby zmian zasobności w pozostałych klasach w poszczególnych województwach. Stwierdzono, że w skali całego kraju wielkość całkowitych potrzeb zmian zasobności gleby w fosfor kształtuje się na poziomie ponad 814 tys. t P2O5, przy znaczącym zróżnicowaniu w poszczególnych regionach. Całkowite rezerwy dopuszczalne, które stanowią rezerwy fosforu w glebach o zasobności dużej i bardzo dużej (do poziomu 40 mg P2O5/100 g gleby) wynoszą 1 614 tys. t.

Intermittent rivers are prevalent in many countries across Europe, but little is known about the temporal evolution of intermittence and its relationship with climate variability. Trend analysis of the annual and seasonal number of zero-flow days, the maximum duration of dry spells and the mean date of the zero-flow events, is performed on a database of 452 rivers with varying degrees of intermittence between 1970 and 2010. The relationships between flow intermittence and climate are investigated using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and climate indices describing large-scale atmospheric circulation. The results indicate a strong spatial variability of the seasonal patterns of intermittence and the annual and seasonal number of zero-flow days, highlighting the controls exerted by local catchment properties. Most of the detected trends indicate an increasing number of zero-flow days, which also tend to occur earlier in the year, particularly in southern Europe. The SPEI is found to be strongly related to the annual and seasonal zero-flow day occurrence in more than half of the stations for different accumulation times between 12 and 24 months. Conversely, there is a weaker dependence of river intermittence with large-scale circulation indices. Overall, these results suggest increased water stress in intermittent rivers that may affect their biota and biochemistry and also reduce available water resources.

The main objective of the paper was to propose and evaluate the performance of a regional approach to estimate CN values and to test the impact of different initial abstraction ratios. The curve number (CN) was analyzed for five Slovak and five Polish catchments situated in the Carpathian Mountains. The L-moment based method of Hosking and Wallis and the ANOVA test were combined to delineate the area in two homogenous regions of catchments with similar CN values. The optimization condition enabled the choice of the initial abstraction ratio, which provided the smallest discrepancy between the tabulated and estimated CNs and the antecedent runoff conditions. The homogeneity in the CN within the regions of four Slovak and four Polish catchments was revealed. Finally, the regional CN was proposed to be at the 50% quantile of the regional theoretical distribution function estimated from all the CNs in the region. The approach is applied in a group of Slovak and Polish catchments with physiographic conditions representative for the Carpathian region. The main benefit of introducing a common regional CN is the opportunity to apply this procedure in catchments of similar soil-physiographic characteristics and to verify the existing tabulated CN. The paper could give rise to an alternative way of estimating the CN values in forested catchments and catchments with a lack of data or without observations.