Hazem Badreldin

Fractured carbonate reservoirs are highly heterogeneous, and their multiscale fracture systems make it difficult to reliably characterize fracture geometry and hydraulic properties. This study presents an integrated discrete fracture network (DFN) approach for a Carboniferous fractured carbonate reservoir in the Kappa Field. Seismic interpretation and curvature attributes were used to identify fracture-related structural features and constrain their spatial distribution at the field scale. These results were integrated with fracture orientations and occurrences identified from borehole image logs and core observations to constrain fracture geometry at the well scale. Dynamic well-test data were then incorporated through transmissivity (KH) calibration to constrain fracture aperture and permeability and to evaluate the hydraulic behavior of the modeled network. The integration of these datasets provides complementary constraints on fracture geometry and hydraulic properties across different observation scales. The resulting DFN model shows improved consistency with the observed reservoir pressure response and provides a more reliable representation of fracture connectivity and hydraulic communication. This study demonstrates that integrating seismic interpretation, curvature attributes, borehole image logs, core observations, and dynamic well-test data provides a robust basis for reducing uncertainty in DFN construction and developing fracture models for reservoir simulation and field development planning.

Multi-hazard disaster risk reduction and mitigation require high-resolution exposure models that grasp the characteristics of assets at the local scale. High-resolution exposure models may allow improving precision/accuracy of risk and damage assessments, especially for hazards which are characterised by high spatial variability or may be influenced by the presence of the assets, such as tsunami or flooding. We propose a methodology for developing a high-resolution population and residential buildings exposure models, to be used for multi-hazard risk reduction purposes at the local scale. This method has been tested and validated for a selected coastal area in the upper Adriatic, exposed to multiple hazards including earthquakes, tsunamis, meteorological events and coastal erosion. For the development of the population exposure model, a high-resolution population density data, collected at global scale, is combined with the national population census data, leveraging both on the accuracy of the national census and on the resolution of the global data. Also, the building census data is complemented with exposure indicators extracted from digital building footprints from the Carta Tecnica Regionale Numerica (CTRN), which is missing in census data, such as average built area, total built area, replacement cost, height and plan regularity. The final exposure layers are assembled at two resolutions: 100 meters and 30 meters, with information also provided at the census unit level. We discuss the development and use of these layers for multi-risk assessment and their potential combination with artificial intelligence. This research is a contribution to the projects: RETURN Extended Partnership (European Union Next-Generation EU—National Recovery and Resilience Plan—NRRP, Mission 4, Component 2, Investment 1.3—D.D. 1243 2/8/2022, PE0000005); PRIN-PNRR project SMILE: Statistical Machine Learning for Exposure development, funded by the European Union- Next Generation EU, Mission 4 Component 1 (CUP F53D23010780001).

After an earthquake event, major ground effects include landslides. In Italy, the most common type of earthquake-induced landslides are rockfalls. The assessment of the extent and magnitude of an earthquake-induced landslide event may be of importance for both preparedness and response operations. An earlier work devised a modeling chain including an empirical ground shaking scenario and a three-dimensional model for rockfalls, which can be calibrated and possibly applied in real time after an earthquake event. In this study, we explore the combined use of two physics-based methods for both earthquake and rockfall modeling and their possible contribution towards a better understanding of the triggering mechanisms and characterization of seismically induced rockfalls. Specifically, by modeling a set of ground shaking scenarios, which account for increasingly complex details (including multiple seismic events, as well as point and extended sources) and the related rockfall scenarios, we aim to capture the main spatial patterns of observed rockfalls. Application of the proposed modeling chain suggests an advantage of using multiple sources over a single source, and point sources with respect to approximate extended representations when constrained by limited available data. This follows from the comparison of rockfall trajectory simulations for the Friuli 1976 event in Northern Italy with observed rockfalls induced by the seismic sequence. The obtained results evidence the opportunity of including topographic effects in the ground shaking simulations and highlights the possibility of further investigating the cumulative effect of complex seismic sequences and their influence on modulating landslide susceptibility.

The available historical documents for the city of Alexandria indicate that it was damaged to varying degrees by several (historical and instrumentally recorded) earthquakes and by highly destructive tsunamis reported at some places along the Mediterranean coast. In this work, we applied the neo-deterministic seismic hazard analysis (NDSHA) approach to the Alexandria metropolitan area, estimating ground motion intensity parameters, e.g., peak ground displacement (PGD), peak ground velocity (PGV), peak ground acceleration (PGA), and spectral response, at selected rock sites. The results of this NDSHA zonation at a subregional/urban scale, which can be directly used as seismic input for engineering analysis, indicate a relatively high seismic hazard in the Alexandria region (e.g., 0.15 g), and they can provide an essential knowledge base for detailed and comprehensive seismic microzonation studies at an urban scale. Additionally, we established detailed tsunami hazard inundation maps for Alexandria Governorate based on empirical relations and considering various Manning’s Roughness Coefficients. Across all the considered scenarios, the average estimated time of arrival (ETA) of tsunami waves for Alexandria was 75–80 min. According to this study, the most affected sites in Alexandria are those belonging to the districts of Al Gomrok and Al Montazah. The west of the city, called Al Sahel Al Shamally, is less affected than the east, as it is protected by a carbonate ridge parallel to the coastline. Finally, we emphasize the direct applicability of our study to urban planning and risk management in Alexandria. Our study can contribute to identifying vulnerable areas, prioritizing mitigation measures, informing land-use planning and building codes, and enhancing multi-hazard risk analysis and early warning systems.

A multiparameter analysis was conducted to evaluate the impact of meteorological parameters, night sky brightness and seismic hazards on proposed sites for the new optical/infrared Egyptian astronomical telescope. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) data set is used to obtain the following meteorological parameters: total cloud coverage fraction, precipitable water vapour, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, and air temperature. To estimate the aerosol optical depth, we used the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2). Light pollution over the candidate sites was measured using the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) day/night band. In order to assess the seismic hazards for the candidate sites, the seismic input in terms of maximum acceleration and response spectra was computed using a physics-based ground motion approach to assess the seismic hazards and, consequently, the designation of a seismic-resistant structure for the proposed sites. Of the seven nominated sites, two sites are found to have the best measurements and might be considered as future sites for the new Egyptian astronomical telescope. The first site is located in the south of the Sinai peninsula, while the second site is located in the Red Sea mountains region.