Daniel P. Crear

Climate change will continue to alter key physical and biological oceanographic processes throughout the global ocean, modifying environmental conditions for U.S. highly migratory fish species found in the Atlantic Ocean. The Atlantic Highly Migratory Species Climate Vulnerability Assessment evaluated the vulnerability of 58 species and stocks to projected ocean conditions, using a combined qualitative and quantitative analysis of species sensitivity (physiological, ecological, and behavioral attributes) and estimated exposure to possible future ocean stressors. Key modeled environmental variables included bottom and sea surface temperature, sea surface oxygen, and ocean acidification (pH), whereas the most influential biological attributes considered were population growth rate, stock size, and stock status. We produced vulnerability rankings (i.e., low, moderate, high, and very high) based on biological attribute sensitivity and exposure to the environmental variables, and separate analyses including estimated ability of distributional shifts, predicted directional effects of climate change, certainty, and data quality scores for the species and stocks assessed, with exceptions for species with undetermined geographic distributions. Of the 58 species and stocks assessed, 4 had very high vulnerability to climate change, 14 had high vulnerability, 22 had moderate vulnerability, 6 had low vulnerability, and 12 could not be assigned a rank. The majority (n = 45) of species and stocks had high ability for distributional shifts in response to projected changes in climate. Further, directional effect results suggest that climate change impacts on the majority of species and stocks will be neutral, implying that these species have life history or behavioral traits that impart some level of resilience and adaptability to the impacts of climate change. These results provide information for use in ecosystem-based fisheries management, particularly for prioritization of vulnerable species and stocks in conservation activities and research endeavors.

Context: Nursery areas provide refuge from predators, rich foraging grounds, and physical conditions conducive to growth and development of juvenile inhabitants. Specifically, the Mississippi Sound in the northern Gulf of Mexico is likely a nursery ground for multiple large and small coastal sharks. Aims and methods: Using over a decade of shark survey catch data, we employed habitat modelling approaches to identify preferred environmental conditions and spatial distribution, and quantify core habitat overlap within the Mississippi Sound for young-of-year (YOY), juvenile and adult life stages of four coastal shark species. Results: YOY Atlantic sharpnose (Rhizoprionodon terraenovae), blacktip (Carcharhinus limbatus) and finetooth (Carcharhinus isodon) sharks showed a preference for a combination of shallow, warm, low salinity, low dissolved oxygen and turbid waters. Corresponding to shared environmental preferences, spatial distributions of YOY sharks showed a high degree of overlap, particularly in the northern portion of the Mississippi Sound where few adult sharks were observed, suggesting that these life stages partition themselves to avoid predation. Conclusion and implications: With a continued rise in US coastal shark populations, we hope this study can help further refine essential fish habitat for these coastal species and provide a framework analysis that can be used to understand habitat partitioning in other regions.

The Northwest Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico are among the fastest warming ocean regions, a trend that is expected to continue through this century with far-reaching implications for marine ecosystems. We examine the distribution of 12 highly migratory top predator species using predictive models and project expected habitat changes using downscaled climate models. Our models predict widespread losses of suitable habitat for most species, concurrent with substantial northward displacement of core habitats >500 km. These changes include up to >70% loss of suitable habitat area for some commercially and ecologically important species. We also identify predicted hot spots of multi-species habitat loss focused offshore of the U.S. Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts. For several species, the predicted changes are already underway, which are likely to have substantial impacts on the efficacy of static regulatory frameworks used to manage highly migratory species. The ongoing and projected effects of climate change highlight the urgent need to adaptively and proactively manage dynamic marine ecosystems.

As the world develops sources of renewable energy, there is an intensifying interest in offshore wind energy production. The Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf (NES) ecosystem has favorable wind dynamics, with active development of wind energy. In this study, we present species distribution models that consider both occupancy and biomass responses for a broad spectrum of fish and macroinvertebrate taxa (n = 177). Building upon prior analyses, habitat was differentiated into overall and core habitats based on statistical distributions of habitat scores. Overall habitat was used to show each species' regional distribution based on fishery-independent survey captures between 1976 and 2019, whereas core habitat represented where the focus of the species' abundance was located as a subset of overall habitat. Wind energy developments may modify the water column in ways that impact lower-trophic-level productivity; therefore, added attention was given to the response of forage species. Over 20% of species showed preferential use of putative and potential wind development areas, including a disproportionate number of forage taxa. Principal usage varied by season, with forage species like Atlantic Menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus and Atlantic Mackerel Scomber scombrus preferentially using the lease areas in spring and Round Herring Etrumeus teres and longfin inshore squid Doryteuthis pealeii using lease areas in autumn. For species with relatively low usage of the lease areas, there was a tendency for the usage related to overall habitat to be lower than usage for core habitat; in contrast, for species with high usage of the lease areas, that usage was higher for overall habitat than for core habitat. The area of habitat tended to have positive trends across species, with these positive trends being disproportionately higher among forage taxa. These results frame the importance of wind lease areas for species in the NES, particularly forage taxa that fulfill many important ecological functions.

The distribution of marine species is changing as a direct result of climate change. Large pelagic highly migratory species (HMS), like tunas, billfishes, and sharks, are particularly sensitive to environmental change due to their migratory nature and use of large‐scale ocean features. These temporal and spatial shifts are likely reflected in the Atlantic HMS recreational fishery and could have downstream effects on coastal communities. We utilized dockside intercept data from the Large Pelagics Survey (LPS) from 2002 to 2019, which conducts sampling from June to October and spans Maine to Virginia, USA. We assessed how species catch composition has changed and developed spatiotemporal models to understand latitudinal and temporal shifts in the recreational catch of 12 HMS groups. Latitudinal shifts were significantly affected by Northeast Shelf SST for 11 of the 12 HMS groups and ranged from 3 ± 1 km°C⁻¹ for the large bluefin tuna to 40 ± 1 km°C⁻¹ for the blue shark. In addition, the estimated day of the year when the first 25% of bigeye tuna intercepts occurred, happened over 50 days earlier in 2019 compared to 2002, suggesting the initial catch is happening earlier in recent years. These results suggest that changes in species distribution and phenology are affecting where and when HMS recreational catch occurs. Understanding these shifts would allow managers to be more responsive and flexible and also help communities prepare for changes, whether it would be a switch to a new species or shifts in the fishing season.

Spatial management for highly migratory species (HMS) is difficult due to many species’ mobile habits and the dynamic nature of oceanic habitats. Current static spatial management areas for fisheries in the United States have been in place for extended periods of time with limited data collection inside the areas, making any analysis of their efficacy challenging. Spatial modeling approaches can be specifically designed to integrate species data from outside of closed areas to project species distributions inside and outside closed areas relative to the fishery. We developed HMS-PRedictive Spatial Modeling (PRiSM), which uses fishery-dependent observer data of species’ presence–absence, oceanographic covariates, and gear covariates in a generalized additive model (GAM) framework to produce fishery interaction spatial models. Species fishery interaction distributions were generated monthly within the domain of two HMS longline fisheries and used to produce a series of performance metrics for HMS closed areas. PRiSM was tested on bycatch species, including shortfin mako shark (Isurus oxyrinchus), billfish (Istiophoridae), and leatherback sea turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) in a pelagic longline fishery, and sandbar shark (Carcharhinus plumbeus), dusky shark (C. obscurus), and scalloped hammerhead shark (Sphyrna lewini) in a bottom longline fishery. Model validation procedures suggest PRiSM performed well for these species. The closed area performance metrics provided an objective and flexible framework to compare distributions between closed and open areas under recent environmental conditions. Fisheries managers can use the metrics generated by PRiSM to supplement other streams of information and guide spatial management decisions to support sustainable fisheries.

Cobia (Rachycentron canadum) is a large coastal pelagic fish species that represents an important fishery in many coastal Atlantic states of the U.S. They are heavily fished in Virginia when they migrate into Chesapeake Bay during the summer to spawn and feed. These coastal habitats have been subjected to warming and increased hypoxia which in turn could impact the timing of migration and the habitat suitability of Chesapeake Bay. With conditions expected to worsen, we project current and future habitat suitability of Chesapeake Bay for cobia and predict changes in their arrival and departure times as conditions shift. To do this we developed a depth integrated habitat model from archival tagging and physiology data from cobia that used Chesapeake Bay, and applied the model to contemporary and future temperature and oxygen output from a coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model of Chesapeake Bay. We found that estimated arrival occurs earlier and estimated departure time occurs later when temperatures are warmer and that by mid- and end-of-century cobia may spend on average up to 30 and 65 more days, respectively, in Chesapeake Bay. By mid-century we do not expect habitat suitability to change substantially for cobia, but by end-of-century we project it will significantly decline and shift closer to the mouth of Chesapeake Bay. Our study provides evidence that cobia will have the capacity to withstand near term impacts of climate change, but that their migration phenology varies from year to year with changing temperatures. These findings emphasize the need to incorporate the relationship between fishes and their environment into how fisheries are managed. This information can also help guide managers when deciding the timing and allocation of a fishery.

Aim: Climate change has influenced the distribution and phenology of marine species, globally. However, knowledge of the impacts of climate change is lacking for many species that support valuable recreational fisheries. Cobia (Rachycentron canadum) are the target of an important recreational fishery along the U.S. east coast that is currently the subject of a management controversy regarding allocation and stock structure. Further, the current and probable future distributions of this migratory species are unclear, further complicating decision‐making. The objectives of this study are to better define the contemporary distribution of cobia along the U.S. east coast and to project potential shifts in distribution and phenology under future climate change scenarios.Location: Chesapeake Bay and the U.S. east coast.Methods: We developed a depth‐integrated habitat suitability model using archival tagging data from cobia that were caught and tagged in Chesapeake Bay during summer months and coupled those data with high‐resolution ocean models to project the contemporary and future distributions of cobia along U.S. east coast.Results: During the winter months, suitable cobia habitat currently occurs in offshore waters off North Carolina and further south, whereas during the summer months, suitable habitat occurs in waters from Florida to southern New England. In warmer years, the availability of suitable habitat increases in northern latitudes. Under continued climate change over the next 40–80 years, suitable habitat is projected to shift northward and decrease over the shelf.Main conclusions: Habitat distributions suggest cobia overwinter offshore and could inhabit waters further north during warmer months, into state jurisdictions that do not have strict management regulations for cobia. When waters are warmer, distributions are projected to shift poleward and seasonal migrations may begin earlier. These results can inform resource allocation discussions between fishery managers and resource users.