Robert Stephen Paton

Usutu virus (USUV) is a mosquito‑borne flavivirus that has recently expanded northwards in Europe and become endemic in the UK. USUV emergence often precedes the closely related West Nile virus (WNV), potentially reflecting differences in epidemiological parameters. One key parameter is the extrinsic incubation period (EIP), the time required for a mosquito to become infectious following an infected blood meal. Here we present the first ever estimate of the temperature dependent EIP for USUV in the vector Culex pipiens molestus . We were able to quantify the shortening of the EIP with temperature by re-analysing published laboratory data with bespoke Bayesian model that accounted for key features of the experimental design. Under typical UK summer temperatures, the median EIP (EIP ₅₀ ) of USUV is shorter than that of WNV, and the potential transmission season of USUV is both longer and geographically more extensive. Under RCP8.5 climate projections, WNV transmission suitability is expected to match or exceed current USUV levels between 2055 and 2065, highlighting the future threat to the UK from emerging mosquito borne pathogens. Our findings support USUV as a precursor for WNV in northern Europe and provide a robust characterisation of a key epidemiological parameter of USUV, enabling accurate modelling of its transmission dynamics.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus continues to cause substantial morbidity and mortality, particularly during the winter period. The Winter Covid Infection Study (WCIS) ran from the 14 ^th of November 2023 to the 7 ^th of March 2024, and enabled the UK Health Security Agency to publish fortnightly estimates of the incidence and prevalence of SARS-CoV-2. Testing was performed using Lateral Flow Devices (LFD), and a repeat testing design was used to estimate key epidemiological parameters of SARS-CoV-2. This facilitated the estimation of time-varying prevalence, incidence, and test sensitivity. A Bayesian multilevel regression and poststratification model was developed to produce representative and unbiased estimates. In England and Scotland, prevalence peaked at 4.54% (95% CI: 3.90 to 5.24), and incidence peaked at 498 (95% CrI: 429 to 585) new infections per 100,000 individuals per day. The average LFD test sensitivity in England and Scotland during the study was estimated to be 72.1% (95% CrI: 70.3, 74.0), though due to epidemic phase bias this varied from a minimum value of 68.6% (95% CrI: 66.4 to 70.7) to a maximum value of 77.2% (95% CrI: 75.3 to 79.2). The novel study design of WCIS addressed key survey design challenges faced by previous large-scale SARS-CoV-2 population prevalence studies. The study demonstrated the utility and cost-benefit of LFD tests in large community surveys of prevalence.

The emergence of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variant caused international concern due to its rapid spread in Southern Africa. It was unknown whether this variant would replace or coexist with (either transiently or long term) the then-dominant Delta variant on its introduction to England. We developed a set of hierarchical logistic growth models to describe changes in the frequency of S gene target failure (SGTF) PCR tests, a proxy for Omicron. The doubling time of SGTF cases peaked at 1.56 days (95% CI: 1.49 to 1.63) on 5 December, whereas triple-positive cases were halving every 5.82 days (95% CI: 5.11 to 6.67) going into Christmas 2021. We were unable to characterize the replacement of Delta by Omicron with a single rate. The replacement rate decreased by 53.56% (95% CrI: 45.38 to 61.01) between 14 and 15 December, meaning the competitive advantage of Omicron approximately halved. Preceding the changepoint, Omicron was replacing Delta 16.24% (95% CrI: 9.72 to 23.41) faster in those with two or more vaccine doses, indicative of vaccine escape being a substantial component of competitive advantage. Despite the slowdown, Delta was almost entirely replaced in England within a month of the first sequenced domestic case. The synchrony of changepoints across regions at various stages of Omicron epidemics suggests that the growth rate advantage was not attenuated because of biological mechanisms related to strain competition. The step change in replacement could have resulted from behavioral changes, potentially elicited by public health messaging or policies, that differentially affected Omicron.

Prior studies have demonstrated that immunologic dysfunction underpins severe illness in COVID-19 patients, but have lacked an in-depth analysis of the immunologic drivers of death in the most critically ill patients. We performed immunophenotyping of viral antigen-specific and unconventional T cell responses, neutralizing antibodies, and serum proteins in critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, using influenza infection, SARS-CoV-2-convalescent health care workers, and healthy adults as controls. We identify mucosal-associated invariant T (MAIT) cell activation as an independent and significant predictor of death in COVID-19 (HR = 5.92, 95% CI = 2.49–14.1). MAIT cell activation correlates with several other mortality-associated immunologic measures including broad activation of CD8⁺ T cells and non-Vδ2 γδT cells, and elevated levels of cytokines and chemokines, including GM-CSF, CXCL10, CCL2, and IL-6. MAIT cell activation is also a predictor of disease severity in influenza (ECMO/death HR = 4.43, 95% CI = 1.08–18.2). Single-cell RNA-sequencing reveals a shift from focused IFNα-driven signals in COVID-19 ICU patients who survive to broad pro-inflammatory responses in fatal COVID-19 –a feature not observed in severe influenza. We conclude that fatal COVID-19 infection is driven by uncoordinated inflammatory responses that drive a hierarchy of T cell activation, elements of which can serve as prognostic indicators and potential targets for immune intervention.

Childhood malaria: Understanding how changes in community parasite prevalence alter the rate and age distribution of severe malaria is essential for optimizing control efforts. Paton et al . assessed the incidence of pediatric severe malaria admissions from 13 hospitals in East Africa from 2006 to 2020 (see the Perspective by Taylor and Slutsker). Each 25% increase in community parasite prevalence shifted hospital admissions toward younger children. Low rates of lifetime infections appeared to confer some immunity to severe malaria in very young children. Children under the age of 5 years thus need to remain a focus of disease prevention for malaria control. —CA

Background: Cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 from exposure to endemic human coronaviruses (eHCoV) is gaining increasing attention as a possible driver of both protection against infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we explore the potential role of cross-reactivity induced by eHCoVs on age-specific COVID-19 severity in a mathematical model of eHCoV and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Methods: We use an individual-based model, calibrated to prior knowledge of eHCoV dynamics, to fully track individual histories of exposure to eHCoVs. We also model the emergent dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of hospitalisation upon infection. Results: We hypothesise that primary exposure with any eHCoV confers temporary cross-protection against severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, while life-long re-exposure to the same eHCoV diminishes cross-protection, and increases the potential for disease severity. We show numerically that our proposed mechanism can explain age patterns of COVID-19 hospitalisation in EU/EEA countries and the UK. We further show that some of the observed variation in health care capacity and testing efforts is compatible with country-specific differences in hospitalisation rates under this model. Conclusions: This study provides a “proof of possibility” for certain biological and epidemiological mechanisms that could potentially drive COVID-19-related variation across age groups. Our findings call for further research on the role of cross-reactivity to eHCoVs and highlight data interpretation challenges arising from health care capacity and SARS-CoV-2 testing.

It is unclear whether prior endemic coronavirus infections affect COVID-19 severity. Here, we show that in cases of fatal COVID-19, antibody responses to the SARS-COV-2 spike are directed against epitopes shared with endemic beta-coronaviruses in the S2 subunit of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. This immune response is associated with the compromised production of a de novo SARS-CoV-2 spike response among individuals with fatal COVID-19 outcomes. Funding: This work was supported by the Georg and Emily von Opel Foundation, the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) [award CO-­‐CIN-­‐01], the Medical Research Council [grant MC_PC_19059], ME was supported by The Leona M. and Harry B. Helmsley Charitable Trust on May 31, 2021 for the project titled, "ICARUS –IBD: International study of COVID-­‐19 Antibody Response Under Sustained immune suppression in Inflammatory Bowel Disease. RP also supported by funds provided under Professor RW Snow’s Wellcome Trust Principal Fellowship (# 212176). Meso Scale Diagnostics (USA) provided loan of equipment, reagents and technical support. JSB was supported by funding from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) [grant number BB/M011224/1]. CPT was funded by an ERC research grant UNIFLUVAC’ and two MRC CiC grants (Ref: BR00140). ALM is funded by a NIHR Research Capability Funding grant. HJK is supported by The Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford DPhil Scholarship program. DE is funded by the Robertson Foundation. The funders played no role in the design, execution or reporting of the study. Declaration of Interest: DE declares lecture fees from Gilead. CPT and SG hold funding from Blue Water Vaccines. All others have nothing to disclose. Ethical Approval: Ethical approval was obtained for the Scottish National Blood Transfusion Service (SNBTS) anonymous archive -­‐ IRAS project number 18005. SNBTS blood donors gave fully informed consent to virological testing, donation was made under the SNBTS Blood Establishment Authorisation and the study was approved by the SNBTS Research and Sample Governance Committee.

Cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 from previous exposure to endemic coronaviruses (eHCoV) is gaining increasing attention as a possible driver of both protection against infection and severity of COVID-19 disease. Here, we use a stochastic individual-based model to show that heterogeneities in individual exposure histories to endemic coronaviruses are able to explain observed age patterns of hospitalisation due to COVID-19 in EU/EEA countries and the UK, provided there is (i) a decrease in cross-protection to SARS-CoV-2 with the number of eHCoV exposures and (ii) an increase in potential disease severity with number of eHCoV exposures or as a result of immune senescence. We also show that variation in health care capacity and testing efforts is compatible with country-specific differences in hospitalisation rates. Our findings call for further research on the role of cross-reactivity to endemic coronaviruses and highlight potential challenges arising from heterogeneous health care capacity and testing.

Despite continued efforts into improving biosecurity protocol, Campylobacter continues to be detected in the majority of commercial chicken flocks across Europe. Using an extensive data set of Campylobacter prevalence within a chicken breeder flock for over a year, multiple Bayesian models are presented to explore the dynamics of the spread of Campylobacter in response to seasonal variation, species-specificity, bird health and total infection prevalence. It was found that birds within the flock varied greatly in their response to bacterial challenge, and that this phenomena had a large impact in the overall prevalence of different species of Campylobacter. Campylobacter jejuni appeared more frequently in the summer, while Campylobacter coli persisted for a longer duration, amplified by the most susceptible birds in the flock. Our study suggests that strains of Campylobacter that appear most frequently likely possess no demographic advantage, but are instead amplified due to the health of the birds that ingest it.

Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assays are used to test patients and key workers for infection with the causative SARS-CoV-2 virus. RT-PCR tests are highly specific and the probability of false positives is low, but false negatives can occur if the sample contains insufficient quantities of the virus to be successfully amplified and detected. The amount of virus in a swab is likely to vary between patients, sample location (nasal, throat or sputum) and through time as infection progresses. Here, we analyse publicly available data from patients who received multiple RT-PCR tests and were identified as SARS-CoV-2 positive at least once. We identify that the probability of a positive test decreases with time after symptom onset, with throat samples less likely to yield a positive result relative to nasal samples. Empirically derived distributions of the time between symptom onset and hospitalisation allowed us to comment on the likely false negative rates in cohorts of patients who present for testing at different clinical stages. We further estimate the expected numbers of false negative tests in a group of tested individuals and show how this is affected by the timing of the tests. Finally, we assessed the robustness of these estimates of false negative rates to the probability of false positive tests. This work has implications both for the identification of infected patients and for the discharge of convalescing patients who are potentially still infectious.