Zack Norwood

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0112442.].

The European roadmap for the power sector dictates an 80–95% cut of existing levels of carbon dioxide emissions is needed by the year 2050 to meet climate goals. This article describes results from a linear cost optimization investment model, ELIN, coupled with a solar technology model, Distributed Concentrating Solar Combined Heat and Power (DCS-CHP), using published investment costs for a comprehensive suite of renewable and conventional electricity generation technologies, to compare possible scenarios for the future electricity grid. The results of these model runs and sensitivity analyses indicate that: (1) solar photovoltaics (PV) with battery storage will likely play a very large role in meeting European targets; (2) concentrating solar power (CSP) with thermal energy storage is at a slight economic disadvantage with respect to PV to compete economically; (3) the economic potential of wind power is only comparable with solar PV if high wind penetration levels are allowed in the best wind sites in Europe; and (4) carbon capture and nuclear technologies are unlikely to compete economically with renewable technologies in creating a low-carbon future grid.

The global trends for the rapid growth of distributed solar heat and power in the last decade will likely continue as the levelized cost of production for these technologies continues to decline. To be able to compare the economic potential of solar technologies one must first quantify the types and amount of solar resource that each technology can utilize; second, estimate the technological performance potential based on that resource; and third, compare the costs of each technology across regions. In this analysis, we have performed the first two steps in this process. We use physical and empirically validated models of a total of 8 representative solar system types: non-tracking photovoltaics, 2d-tracking photovoltaics, high concentration photovoltaics, flat-plate thermal, evacuated tube thermal, concentrating trough thermal, concentrating solar combined heat and power, and hybrid concentrating photovoltaic/thermal. These models are integrated into a simulation that uses typical meteorological year weather data to create a yearly time series of heat and electricity production for each system over 12,846 locations in Europe and 1,020 locations in the United States. Through this simulation, systems composed of various permutations of collector-types and technologies can be compared geospatially and temporally in terms of their typical production in each location. For example, we see that silicon solar cells show a significant advantage in yearly electricity production over thin-film cells in the colder climatic regions, but that advantage is lessened in regions that have high average irradiance. In general, the results lead to the conclusion that comparing solar technologies across technology classes simply on cost per peak watt, as is usually done, misses these often significant regional differences in annual performance. These results have implications for both solar power development and energy systems modeling of future pathways of the electricity system.

In this article, we present performance results and analysis of a novel rotary lobe expander device. This is part of a larger research effort into the analysis and design of a small‐scale solar system that would compete with available distributed technologies for heat and electricity generation. To choose an appropriate working fluid and components for a distributed concentrating solar combined heat and power (DCS‐CHP) system, we compared many different working fluids, collectors, and expander choices. Of the expanders analyzed, including piston expanders, radial inflow turbines, Tesla turbines, screw expanders, and scroll expanders, the rotary lobe expander shows the greatest promise in small‐scale power applications due to its high efficiency in expanding fluids over large pressure ratios and its low cost to manufacture. This article focuses on testing of a prototype small‐scale expander that was chosen because, to date, no suitable commercial product of less than 10 kW has been found for this application. Initial testing was completed with air to get results that should be indicative of future testing with steam. The test system consists of a compressed air expander (a prototype designed by Katrix, Inc. of Australia) connected to an induction motor driven by a variable frequency drive (VFD) that enables expander testing at varying shaft speeds. Results of the expander testing are reported isentropic efficiencies of 22–25%, thermomechanical efficiencies of 80–95%, and pressure ratios of 6–11 at the tested speeds. Despite mixed results from this particular expander, future refinements could lead to a new class of expanders with low cost and high performance for use in solar combined heat and power and waste‐heat recovery.

A small, efficient, and robust turbine is essential to the development of a small-scale (∼10 kWe) Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Rankine cycle system. While the Tesla turbine design offers a versatile solution with a low manufacturing and maintenance cost, its successful use in systems of this type hinges on development of a design that also offers high energy conversion efficiency. The investigation summarized here explored the parametric trends in Tesla turbine efficiency using model analysis of the turbine performance in tandem with experimental testing of a small scale Tesla turbine. The experimental data were used to evaluate the accuracy of trends predicted by the model analysis. Results of this evaluation show agreement between calculated and experiential efficiency. To further test the model, several non-dimensional parameters that arise from the model analysis were used to predict design modifications to the existing turbine that would improve turbine performance. Several of these modifications were fabricated and tested. Results show that the model is able to accurately predict efficiency variations that result from changes in turbine design. The model is then used to project new turbine designs that will maximize the efficiency of the turbine and recommendations are made for further improving Tesla turbine efficiency. Lastly, improved Tesla turbine designs are discussed in terms of their appropriateness for use in CHP Rankine cycle systems.

Recent studies suggest that small scale (5–10kW) distributed solar Rankine combined heat and power could be a viable renewable energy strategy for displacing fossil fuel use in residential buildings, small commercial buildings, or developing rural communities. One of the primary obstacles of scaling down solar Rankine technology to this level is finding an appropriate expander design. This paper considers the radial-inflow turbine for such an application. Although well-tested methodologies exist for design analysis of radial inflow turbines, existing analysis tools are generally focused on machines using a combustion gases in a Brayton cycle. Use of Rankine cycle working fluids under conditions optimal for small scale Rankine solar systems result in turbine operating conditions that can be dramatically different from those in combustion-based Brayton cycle power systems. This investigation explored how analysis tools developed by NASA and others for conventional Brayton cycle power systems can be adapted to analyze and design radial inflow expanders for small scale Rankine solar combined heat and power systems. Using a 1D model derived from analysis methodologies used by NASA for conventional aerospace gas turbine power applications, the effect of reduced power output on performance is explored. Since the model contains several non-dimensional variables, a variety of geometries are surveyed, and performance sensitivity to various geometric parameters is observed. The interplay between radial inflow turbine performance and cycle efficiency for the system is examined in detail. Several fluids are compared to access how critical temperature and the shape of the saturation dome affect thermodynamic performance of the cycle and efficiency of the turbine. Conclusions regarding optimal fluids and geometric parameters for the radial-inflow turbine are discussed.

Solar combined heat and power (CHP) systems can compete or exceed solar photovoltaics (PV) — which is often used as the benchmark in terms of efficiency, performance, and cost — in a range of distributed generation applications, and across a range of specific technology platforms. A common metric to evaluate the cost of photovoltaics is a cost per peak power output or “dollars per watt” metric. For the purpose of comparison, we develop a new analytic methodology to evaluate the cost of the electricity generated from a solar CHP system. The electricity generation and thermal subsystems of a solar CHP system are energetically intertwined, yet by comparing thermal and electrical outputs a sensible cost division can be determined. This method is then used to compare the cost of stationary PV and solar Rankine CHP systems with tracking and stationary collectors. The capacity factors of electricity generation for each system is found in simulation using NREL TMY3 climatic data for 1020 sites in the United States. The solar Rankine system with stationary collectors outperforms the PV system in warmer and sunnier climates relative to its rated “dollar per watt” output, while PV outperforms solar Rankine in cooler climates. With tracking concentrating collectors, the solar Rankine system outperforms PV systems in the vast majority of US sites at an estimated cost of $4/W and a collector high temperature of 250°C. In conclusion, a PV system and solar Rankine CHP system, sized equally in terms of peak power output, will produce comparable amounts of electricity (+/− 10% on average), however the solar Rankine CHP system will additionally provide 4 to 6 units of useful heat energy for every one unit of electricity generated.

This report analyzes the current economic and environmental performance of combined heat and power (CHP) systems in power interruption intolerant commercial facilities. Through a series of three case studies, key trade-offs are analyzed with regard to the provision of black-out ridethrough capability with the CHP systems and the resutling ability to avoid the need for at least some diesel backup generator capacity located at the case study sites. Each of the selected sites currently have a CHP or combined heating, cooling, and power (CCHP) system in addition to diesel backup generators. In all cases the CHP/CCHP system have a small fraction of the electrical capacity of the diesel generators. Although none of the selected sites currently have the ability to run the CHP systems as emergency backup power, all could be retrofitted to provide this blackout ride-through capability, and new CHP systems can be installed with this capability. The following three sites/systems were used for this analysis: (1) Sierra Nevada Brewery - Using 1MW of installed Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells operating on a combination of digestor gas (from the beer brewing process) and natural gas, this facility can produce electricty and heat for the brewery and attached bottling plant. Themore » major thermal load on-site is to keep the brewing tanks at appropriate temperatures. (2) NetApp Data Center - Using 1.125 MW of Hess Microgen natural gas fired reciprocating engine-generators, with exhaust gas and jacket water heat recovery attached to over 300 tons of of adsorption chillers, this combined cooling and power system provides electricity and cooling to a data center with a 1,200 kW peak electrical load. (3) Kaiser Permanente Hayward Hospital - With 180kW of Tecogen natural gas fired reciprocating engine-generators this CHP system generates steam for space heating, and hot water for a city hospital. For all sites, similar assumptions are made about the economic and technological constraints of the power generation system. Using the Distributed Energy Resource Customer Adoption Model (DER-CAM) developed at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, we model three representative scenarios and find the optimal operation scheduling, yearly energy cost, and energy technology investments for each scenario below: Scenario 1 - Diesel generators and CHP/CCHP equipment as installed in the current facility. Scenario 1 represents a baseline forced investment in currently installed energy equipment. Scenario 2 - Existing CHP equipment installed with blackout ride-through capability to replace approximately the same capacity of diesel generators. In Scenario 2 the cost of the replaced diesel units is saved, however additional capital cost for the controls and switchgear for blackout ride-through capability is necessary. Scenario 3 - Fully optimized site analysis, allowing DER-CAM to specify the number of diesel and CHP/CCHP units (with blackout ride-through capability) that should be installed ignoring any constraints on backup generation. Scenario 3 allows DER-CAM to optimize scheduling and number of generation units from the currently available technologies at a particular site. The results of this analysis, using real data to model the optimal schedulding of hypothetical and actual CHP systems for a brewery, data center, and hospital, lead to some interesting conclusions. First, facilities with high heating loads will typically prove to be the most appropriate for CHP installation from a purely economic standpoint. Second, absorption/adsorption cooling systems may only be economically feasible if the technology for these chillers can increase above current best system efficiency. At a coefficient of performance (COP) of 0.8, for instance, an adsorption chiller paired with a natural gas generator with waste heat recovery at a facility with large cooling loads, like a data center, will cost no less on a yearly basis than purchasing electricity and natural gas directly from a utility. Third, at marginal additional cost, if the reliability of CHP systems proves to be at least as high as diesel generators (which we expect to be the case), the CHP system could replace the diesel generator at little or no additional cost. This is true if the thermal to electric (relative) load of those facilities was already high enough to economically justify a CHP system. Last, in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, the modeled CHP and CCHP systems provide some degree of decreased emissions relative to systems with less CHP installed. The emission reduction can be up to 10% in the optimized case (Scenario 3) in the application with the highest relative thermal load, in this case the hospital. Although these results should be qualified because they are only based on the three case studies, the general results and lessons learned are expected to be applicable across a broad range of potential and existing CCHP systems.« less