Richard P. Hale

The principal nature-based solution for offsetting relative sea-level rise in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta is the unabated delivery, dispersal, and deposition of the rivers’ ~1 billion-tonne annual sediment load. Recent hydrological transport modeling suggests that strengthening monsoon precipitation in the 21st century could increase this sediment delivery 34-60%; yet other studies demonstrate that sediment could decline 15-80% if planned dams and river diversions are fully implemented. We validate these modeled ranges by developing a comprehensive field-based sediment budget that quantifies the supply of Ganges-Brahmaputra river sediment under varying Holocene climate conditions. Our data reveal natural responses in sediment supply comparable to previously modeled results and suggest that increased sediment delivery may be capable of offsetting accelerated sea-level rise. This prospect for a naturally sustained Ganges-Brahmaputra delta presents possibilities beyond the dystopian future often posed for this system, but the implementation of currently proposed dams and diversions would preclude such opportunities.

The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta (GBMD) is among the largest in the world, nourished by the ~1 Gt/yr sediment load of its titular rivers. Approximately 75% of this sediment load is debouched to the Bay of Bengal, with ~180 Mt subsequently reworked by tidal processes across the southwestern portion of the delta. This region includes this Sundarbans National Reserve Forest (SNRF), which is the words’ largest continuous mangrove stand. In addition to global sea level rise and the enhanced subsidence intrinsic to deltas, ongoing and proposed alterations to the upstream fluvial sediment supply threaten the future viability of this important ecological and cultural resource. In this study, we use data collected in situ by acoustic and optical instrumentation to examine the physical processes controlling sedimentation in the mangrove forest along the southern coast during both the monsoon (October 2019) and dry seasons (March 2020).  These data are then compared with sedimentation rates measured using sediment elevation tables and marker horizons, as well as observations made 100 km further inland near the northern extent of the SNRF. At this inland site, sediment supply, inundation depth, and salinity have been identified as important factors controlling sediment deposition to the mangrove platform, which ranges from ~1 cm during the dry season (November – June), to > 2 cm during the monsoon (July-October). Data from the second location along the coast are vital for understanding the regional nature of the various threats to delta viability. Preliminary analysis of the 2019 monsoon season data from the southern coast reveals the relative importance of water depth, water velocity, and mangrove pneumatophore density on modulating both water velocity and suspended sediment concentration. Previous studies have identified that while the inland location features a larger tidal range (~5 m vs. ~3 m), frequent cyclone activity likely impacts sedimentation at the coastal site. Data collected in March 2020 will address how these variables impact controls on sedimentation both seasonally and regionally. Results from this study demonstrate the importance of providing regional context to sedimentation studies, as delta communities adapt to dynamic forcing conditions.   

Southwest Bangladesh, located on the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, is experiencing the impacts of sea level rise (SLR) due to processes at both the local and global scale. In particular, regional alterations of the hydrodynamic network, due to embankment construction, have drastically altered effective SLR, placing millions of inhabitants at risk of prolonged inundation, and threatening the world’s largest continuous mangrove stand, the Sundarbans National Forest (SNF). In order to effectively employ landscape recovery solutions, an understanding of local sediment transport and deposition is critical. This field-based study investigates the sediment dynamics between the mangrove platform and tidal channels of the SNF using data from a variety of instruments and sediment samples collected within a forested sub-basin (∼20 km²) fed by a major tidal channel. We observe profound seasonal variability within the sub-basin, with the wet season exhibiting a deeper and longer inundation of the mangrove platform and greater suspended sediment concentrations (SSC). Further, there exists a trend of decreasing SSC and median grain size from the perimeter of the SNF to the interior, and decreasing SSC from the tidal channel to the platform at both locations. We project seasonal platform sedimentation rates ranging from 0.17 ± 0.16 cm in the dry season to 1.8 ± 0.35 cm in the wet season. Importantly, the annual deposition rate measured at either location is sufficiently rapid to keep pace with observed rates of effective SLR published in other studies (∼1.0–1.7 cm/year). Based on our results, it appears that many controls on sedimentation are both covariant and of similar importance to land aggradation in the SNF. While inundation depth and frequency will likely increase under future SLR scenarios, sediment supply is threatened by India’s proposed River Linking Project, which could decrease the sediment loads of the Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers by as much as 75 and 25%, respectively. These rivers provide the sediment for the entire delta, and we predict that with decreasing SSC, some regions—particularly interior sediment-depleted regions—may begin to deteriorate and become submerged, including within the SNF.

We examine variations in discharge exchange between two parallel, 1‐ to 2‐km‐wide tidal channels (the Shibsa and the Pussur) in southwestern Bangladesh over spring‐neap, and historical timescales. Our objective is to evaluate how large‐scale, interconnected tidal channel networks respond to anthropogenic perturbation. The study area spans the boundary between the pristine Sundarbans Reserved Forest, where regular inundation of the intertidal platform maintains the fluvially abandoned delta plain, and the anthropogenically modified region to the north, where earthen embankments sequester large areas of formerly intertidal landscape. Estimates of tidal response to the embankment‐driven reduction in basin volume, and hence tidal prism, predict a corresponding decrease in size of the mainstem Shibsa channel, yet the Shibsa is widening and locally scouring even as the interconnected Pussur channel faces rapid shoaling. Rather, the Shibsa has maintained or even increased its pre‐polder tidal prism by capturing a large portion of the Pussur's basin via several “transverse” channels that are themselves widening and deepening. We propose that an enhanced tidal setup in the Pussur and the elimination of an effective Shibsa‐Pussur flow barrier are driving this basin capture event. These results illustrate previously unrecognized channel interactions and emphasize the importance of flow reorganization in response to perturbations of interconnected, multichannel tidal networks that characterize several large tidal delta plains worldwide.

Constraining time is of critical importance to evaluating the rates and relative contributions of processes driving landscape change in sedimentary basins. The geomorphic character of the field setting guides the application of geochronologic or instrumental tools to this problem, because the viability of methods can be highly influenced by geomorphic attributes. For example, sediment yield and the linked potential for organic preservation may govern the usefulness of radiocarbon dating. Similarly, the rate of sediment transport from source to sink may determine the maturity and/or light exposure of mineral grains arriving in the delta and thus the feasibility of luminescence dating. Here, we explore the viability and quirks of dating and instrumental methods that have been applied in the Bengal Basin, and review the records that they have yielded. This immense, dynamic, and spatially variable system hosts the world's most inhabited delta. Outlining a framework for successful chronologic applications is thus of value to managing water and sediment resources for humans, here and in other populated deltas worldwide. Our review covers radiocarbon dating, luminescence dating, archaeological records and historical maps, short‐lived radioisotopes, horizon markers and rod surface elevation tables, geodetic observations, and surface instrumentation. Combined, these tools can be used to reconstruct the history of the Bengal Basin from Late Pleistocene to present day. The growing variety and scope of Bengal Basin geochronology and instrumentation opens doors for research integrating basin processes across spatial and temporal scales. © 2019 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The landscape of southwest Bangladesh, a region constructed primarily by fluvial processes associated with the Ganges River and Brahmaputra River, is now maintained almost exclusively by tidal processes as the fluvial system has migrated east and eliminated the most direct fluvial input. In natural areas such as the Sundarbans National Forest, year-round inundation during spring high tides delivers sufficient sediment that enables vertical accretion to keep pace with relative sea-level rise. However, recent human modification of the landscape in the form of embankment construction has terminated this pathway of sediment delivery for much of the region, resulting in a startling elevation imbalance, with inhabited areas often sitting >1 m below mean high water. Restoring this landscape, or preventing land loss in the natural system, requires an understanding of how rates of water and sediment flux vary across timescales ranging from hours to months. In this study, we combine time series observations of water level, salinity, and suspended sediment concentration with ship-based measurements of large tidal-channel hydrodynamics and sediment transport. To capture the greatest possible range of variability, cross-channel transects designed to encompass a 12.4 h tidal cycle were performed in both dry and wet seasons during spring and neap tides. Regional suspended sediment concentration begins to increase in August, coincident with a decrease in local salinity, indicating the arrival of the sediment-laden, freshwater plume of the combined Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna rivers. We observe profound seasonality in sediment transport, despite comparatively modest seasonal variability in the magnitude of water discharge. These observations emphasize the importance of seasonal sediment delivery from the main-stem rivers to this remote tidal region. On tidal timescales, spring tides transport an order of magnitude more sediment than neap tides in both the wet and dry seasons. In aggregate, sediment transport is flood oriented, likely as a result of tidal pumping. Finally, we note that rates of sediment and water discharge in the tidal channels are of the same scale as the annually averaged values for the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. These observations provide context for examining the relative importance of fluvial and tidal processes in what has been defined as a quintessentially tidally influenced delta in the classification scheme of Galloway (1975). These data also inform critical questions regarding the timing and magnitude of sediment delivery to the region, which are especially important in predicting and preparing for responses of the natural system to ongoing environmental change.

The landscape of southwest Bangladesh, a region constructed primarily by fluvial processes associated with the Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers, is now maintained almost exclusively by tidal processes as the fluvial system has migrated to the east through the Holocene. In natural areas such as the Sundarbans National Forest, year-round spring-tide inundation delivers sufficient sediment for vertical accretion to keep pace with relative sea-level rise. However, recent human modification of the landscape in the form of embankment construction has terminated this pathway of sediment delivery for much of the region, resulting in a startling elevation imbalance, with inhabited areas often sitting > 1 m below mean high water. Restoring this landscape, or preventing land loss in the natural system, requires an understanding of how rates of water and sediment flux vary across time scales ranging from hours to months. In this study, we combine time-series observations of water level, salinity, and suspended sediment concentration, with ship-based measurements of large tidal channel hydrodynamics and sediment transport. To capture the greatest possible range of variability, cross-channel transects designed to encompass a 12.4-h tidal cycle were performed in both dry and wet seasons, during spring and neap tides. Regional suspended sediment concentration begins to increase in August, coincident with a decrease in local salinity, indicating the arrival of the sediment-laden, freshwater plume of the combined Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna rivers. We observe profound seasonality in sediment transport, despite somewhat modest seasonal variability in the magnitude of water discharge, indicating the importance of this seasonal sediment delivery. On tidal time-scales, spring tides transport an order of magnitude more sediment than neap tides in both the wet and dry seasons. In aggregate, sediment transport is flood-oriented, likely a result of tidal pumping. Finally, we note that rates of sediment and water discharge in the tidal channels are of the same scale as the annually averaged values for the Ganges or Brahmaputra rivers. These observations provide context for examining the relative importance of fluvial and tidal processes in what has been defined as the quintessential tidal delta in the classification scheme of Galloway. These data also inform critical questions regarding the timing and magnitude of sediment delivery to the region, which are especially important in predicting, and preparing for, future change under changing environmental conditions.

Since the 1960s, ~5000 km2 of tidal deltaplain in southwest Bangladesh has been embanked and converted to densely inhabited, agricultural islands (i.e., polders). This landscape is juxtaposed to the adjacent Sundarbans, a pristine mangrove forest, both well connected by a dense network of tidal channels that effectively convey water and sediment throughout the region. The extensive embanking in poldered areas, however, has greatly reduced the tidal prism (i.e., volume of water) transported through local channels. We reveal that >600 km of these major waterways have infilled in recent decades, converting to land through enhanced sedimentation and the direct blocking of waterways by embankments and sluice gates. Nearly all of the observed closures (~98%) have occurred along the embanked polder systems, with no comparable changes occurring in channels of the Sundarbans (<2% change). We attribute most of the channel infilling to the local reduction of tidal prism in poldered areas and the associated decline in current velocities. The infilled channels account for ~90 km2 of new land in the last 40–50 years, the rate of which, ~2 km2/yr, offsets the 4 km2/yr that is eroded at the coast, and is equivalent to ~20% of the new land produced naturally at the Ganges-Brahmaputra tidal rivermouth. Most of this new land, called ‘khas’ in Bengali, has been reclaimed for agriculture or aquaculture, contributing to the local economy. However, benefits are tempered by the loss of navigable waterways for commerce, transportation, and fishing, as well as the forced rerouting of tidal waters and sediments necessary to sustain this low-lying landscape against rising sea level. A more sustainable delta will require detailed knowledge of the consequences of these hydrodynamic changes to support more scientifically-grounded management of water, sediment, and tidal energy distribution.