Teemu Pennanen

This paper applies computational techniques of convex stochastic optimization to optimal operation and valuation of electricity storage systems in the face of uncertain electricity prices. Our valuations are based on the indifference pricing principle, which builds on optimal trading strategies and calibrates to the user’s financial position, market views and risk preferences. The underlying optimization problem is solved with the Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming algorithm, which is applicable to various specifications of storage systems, and it allows for e.g. hard constraints on storage capacity and charging speed. We illustrate the approach in intraday trading where the agent charges or discharges a battery over a finite number of delivery periods, and the electricity prices are subject to bid-ask spreads and significant uncertainty. Optimal strategies are found in a matter of minutes on a regular PC. We find that the corresponding trading strategies and battery valuations vary consistently with respect to the agent’s risk preferences as well as the physical characteristics of the battery.

This paper applies computational techniques of convex stochastic optimization to optimal operation and valuation of electricity storages in the face of uncertain electricity prices. Our valuations are based on the indifference pricing principle, which builds on optimal trading strategies and calibrates to the user's financial position, market views and risk preferences. The underlying optimization problem is solved with the Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming algorithm which is applicable to various specifications of storages, and it allows for e.g. hard constraints on storage capacity and charging speed. We illustrate the approach in intraday trading where the agent charges or discharges a battery over a finite number of delivery periods, and the electricity prices are subject to bid-ask spreads and significant uncertainty. Optimal strategies are found in a matter of minutes on a regular PC. We find that the corresponding trading strategies and battery valuations vary consistently with respect to the agent's risk preferences as well as the physical characteristics of the battery.

This paper applies computational techniques of convex stochastic optimization to optimal operation and valuation of electricity storages in the face of uncertain electricity prices. Our valuations are based on the indifference pricing principle, which builds on optimal trading strategies and calibrates to the user's financial position, market views and risk preferences. The underlying optimization problem is solved with the Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming algorithm which is applicable to various specifications of storages, and it allows for e.g. hard constraints on storage capacity and charging speed. We illustrate the approach in intraday trading where the agent charges or discharges a battery over a finite number of delivery periods, and the electricity prices are subject to bid-ask spreads and significant uncertainty. Optimal strategies are found in a matter of minutes on a regular PC. We find that the corresponding trading strategies and battery valuations vary consistently with respect to the agent's risk preferences as well as the physical characteristics of the battery.

This paper studies stochastic optimization problems and associated Bellman equations in formats that allow for reduced dimensionality of the cost-to-go functions. In particular, we study stochastic control problems in the “decision-hazard-decision” form where at each stage, the system state is controlled both by predictable as well as adapted controls. Such an information structure may result in a lower dimensional system state than what is required in more traditional “decision-hazard” or “hazard-decision” formulations. The dimension is critical for the complexity of numerical dynamic programming algorithms and, in particular, for cutting plane schemes such as the stochastic dual dynamic programming algorithm. Our main result characterizes optimal solutions and optimum values in terms of solutions to generalized Bellman equations. Existence of solutions to the Bellman equations is established under general conditions that do not require compactness. We allow for general randomness but show that, in the Markovian case, the dimensionality of the Bellman equations reduces with respect to randomness just like in more traditional control formulations.

This paper studies duality and optimality conditions for general convex stochastic optimization problems. The main result gives sufficient conditions for the absence of a duality gap and the existence of dual solutions in a locally convex space of random variables. It implies, in particular, the necessity of scenario-wise optimality conditions that are behind many fundamental results in operations research, stochastic optimal control, and financial mathematics. Our analysis builds on the theory of Fréchet spaces of random variables whose topological dual can be identified with the direct sum of another space of random variables and a space of singular functionals. The results are illustrated by deriving sufficient and necessary optimality conditions for several more specific problem classes. We obtain significant extensions to earlier models, for example, on stochastic optimal control, portfolio optimization, and mathematical programming.

This paper studies stochastic optimization problems and associated Bellman equations in formats that allow for reduced dimensionality of the cost-to-go functions. In particular, we study stochastic control problems in the ``decision-hazard-decision'' form where at each stage, the system state is controlled both by predictable as well as adapted controls. Such an information structure may result in a lower dimensional system state than what is required in more traditional ``decision-hazard'' or ``hazard-decision'' formulations. The dimension is critical for the complexity of numerical dynamic programming algorithms and, in particular, for cutting plane schemes such as the stochastic dual dynamic programming algorithm. Our main result characterizes optimal solutions and optimum values in terms of solutions to generalized Bellman equations. Existence of solutions to the Bellman equations is established under general conditions that do not require compactness. We allow for general randomness but show that, in the Markovian case, the dimensionality of the Bellman equations reduces with respect to randomness just like in more traditional control formulations.

This paper applies computational techniques of convex stochastic optimization to optimal operation and valuation of electricity storages in the face of uncertain electricity prices. Our approach is applicable to various specifications of storages, and it allows for e.g. hard constraints on storage capacity and charging speed. Our valuations are based on the indifference pricing principle, which builds on optimal trading strategies and calibrates to the user’s initial position, market views and risk preferences. We illustrate the effects of storage capacity and charging speed by numerically computing the valuations using stochastic dual dynamic programming.