Jacob B. Lowenstern

To improve our understanding of hydrothermal activity on the Yellowstone Plateau volcanic field, we collected and analyzed a large data set of δ²H, δ¹⁸O, and the ³H concentrations of circum‐neutral and alkaline waters. We find that (a) hot springs are fed by recharge throughout the volcanic plateau, likely focused through fractured, permeable tuff units. Previous work had stressed the need for light δ²H water recharge restricted to the northern part of the plateau or recharge during past cold periods. However, new data from the Y‐7 drill hole suggests that recharge is not restricted to a certain area or a cold period. (b) δ¹⁸O values of thermal waters in the geyser basins are shifted from the global meteoric water line by temperature‐dependent water‐rock reactions with higher subsurface temperatures resulting in a greater shift. (c) Large temporal variations in the isotopic composition of meteoric water recharge and small temporal variability in the isotopic composition of hot spring discharge implies that the volume of groundwater in, and around the Yellowstone caldera is substantially larger than the volume of annual water recharge. (d) Hot springs discharged through different rhyolitic units correlate with identifiable differences in δ²H and δ¹⁸O compositions, ³H concentrations, and water chemistry that imply equilibration at different temperatures and travel along different flow paths. (e) Based on measured ³H concentrations, we calculate that hot spring waters in the central part of the geyser basins mostly contain <2% post‐1950 meteoric water, whereas waters discharged at the basin margins contain larger fractions of post‐1950s meteoric water.

Natural radiogenic isotopes (primarily ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr) from hot springs in the Upper Geyser Basin of the Yellowstone Plateau volcanic field and associated rocks were used to evaluate groundwater flow patterns, water‐rock reactions, and the extent of mixing between various groundwater sources. Thermal waters have very low uranium concentrations and ²³⁴U/²³⁸U activity ratios near 1.0, which limit their utility as tracers in this reducing setting. Thermal waters have higher Sr concentrations (87Sr/⁸⁶Sr values that vary both temporally at individual discharge sites and between adjacent springs, indicating that conduits tap different subsurface reservoirs to varying degrees. Sr from local rhyolites have ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr compositions that bound the range of values observed in groundwater throughout the basin. Non‐boiling springs on the west flank of the basin discharge water with low ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr consistent with flow through young volcanic rocks exposed at the surface. Boiling springs in the central basin have higher ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values reflecting interactions with older, more radiogenic volcanic rocks. Variability in upwelling thermal waters requires mixing with a low ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr component derived from young lava or glacial sediments, or more likely, from deeper sources of hot groundwater circulating through buried Lava Creek Tuff having intermediate ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr. Isotope data constrain basin‐wide output of thermal water to 110–140 kg·s⁻¹. Results underscore the utility of radiogenic Sr isotopes as valuable tracers of hydrothermal flow patterns and improve the understanding of temperature‐dependent water‐rock reactions in one of the largest continental hydrothermal systems on Earth.

The distribution of volcano monitoring networks and volcano expertise does not correlate well with the global distribution of volcanic risk. All countries have cultural, financial, bureaucratic, political, and logistical barriers to effective risk reduction. The lack of parity amongst volcano observatories jeopardizes public safety and curtails scientific research and understanding. Having global data compiled daily to retain a full record of volcanic unrest would lead to large and meaningful improvements in future eruption forecasts. To make progress on these issues, the volcanological community needs greater collaboration, standardization, and support..

The National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS) was authorized and partially funded by the U.S. Government in 2019. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program asked its scientists to reflect on and summarize their views of best practices for volcano monitoring. The goal was to review and update the recommendations of a previous report (Moran and others, 2008) and to provide a more detailed analysis of capabilities and instrumentation for monitoring networks for U.S. volcanoes. This Scientific Investigations Report and its chapters reflect those USGS scientists’ views and summaries and will serve as a guide for future network upgrades funded through NVEWS.Given the well-documented hazards posed by volcanoes to population centers and aviation (for example, Blong, 1984; Scott, 1989; Neal and others, 1997, 2019; Guffanti and others, 2010; Shroder and Papale, 2014; Prata and Rose, 2015; Palmer, 2020), volcano monitoring is critical for ensuring public safety and for mitigating the impacts of volcanic activity. Accurate and timely forecasts are facilitated by well-designed monitoring networks that are in place long enough to allow for background behavior to be recognized and understood. Because precursory signals may be limited and unrest may progress rapidly to an eruption, our goal is to deploy monitoring systems that enable detection of the reactivation of dormant volcanoes as early as possible, allowing for public safety and risk mitigation. NVEWS planning is also informed by the results of Ewert and others (2005, 2018), whereby 161 U.S. volcanoes are currently categorized and ranked commensurate with their relative threat.In each chapter, author(s) considered the need for some redundancy of instrumentation and telemetry, given the likelihood of occasional equipment failure, particularly in extreme and remote environments. Establishing digital telemetry networks requires advanced planning, sighting, radio-shot testing, and, inevitably, troubleshooting in the field. This is harder to achieve rapidly during a crisis; thus, an important goal for monitoring U.S. volcanoes is to establish digital telemetry backbones with redundancy and extra capacity to absorb additional instruments should a volcano begin to exhibit signs of unrest (fig. A1). The National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) imposed new regulations in the United States, eliminating the use of older analog radios for many purposes, which had been one previous means for redundant data delivery. However, the resulting conversion from analog to digital systems usefully enables stations to accommodate new and multivariate real-time data streams (for example, Global Navigation Satellite System [GNSS] receivers, infrasound arrays, gas spectrometers, visible and infrared cameras, and broadband seismometers).We note that other USGS and broader national and international hazard programs can leverage NVEWS instrumentation plans. Examples of this include the following:Improved seismic coverage of volcanoes will increase the capability of the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program to detect and locate earthquakes, estimate ground shaking, and provide timely early warnings through the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System (Given and others, 2018).The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Tsunami Program will benefit from additional seismic stations, particularly within the sparsely instrumented Aleutian Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa.Infrasound stations can detect signals from landslides, debris flows and lahars, floods, and weather events, providing benefits to the National Weather Service and the USGS Landslide Hazards Program.

Installation of instrument packages in deep (several hundred to several thousand meters) boreholes near volcanoes is relatively expensive (a few million to tens of millions of U.S. dollars), but can provide a low-noise, high-quality source of geophysical (seismic, strain, tilt, and pore pressure), physical (temperature and water level), and geochemical data. Observations from instruments at depth have the potential to provide insights into processes associated with magma intrusion, unrest, and eruption that would not otherwise be possible (Lowenstern and others, 2017; Eichelberger, 2020). Examples of instrumented boreholes in volcanic areas include the 3-kilometer (km)-deep Long Valley Exploratory Well (LVEW) in California (for example, Priest and others, 1998; Prejean and Ellsworth, 2001; Fischer and others, 2003; Roeloffs and others, 2003; Sorey and others, 2003), the 1,262 meter-deep NSF Well (commonly referred to as the “Keller Well”) within the summit caldera of Kīlauea, Hawaiʻi (Keller and others, 1979; Myren and others, 2006), and the Caribbean Andesite Lava Island-volcano Precision Seismo-geodetic Observatory (CALIPSO) project at Soufrière Hills, Montserrat, which includes a series of four 200-meter (m)-deep holes (for example, Mattioli and others, 2004; Voight and others, 2006). The Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) of the National Science Foundation’s Earthscope project placed seismometers, tiltmeters, strainmeters, and pore-pressure sensors at depths of 100 to 250 m in more than 100 boreholes scattered in western North America, including at Mount St. Helens, Washington, and Yellowstone Caldera, Wyoming. The total cost for an instrumented PBO borehole ranged from $250,000 to $270,000 U.S. dollars (USD) and a few thousand USD are required annually for maintenance (David Mencin, UNAVCO, written commun., October 2020).

In November 2019, the fourth Volcano Observatory Best Practices workshop was held in Mexico City as a series of talks, discussions, and panels. Volcanologists from around the world offered suggestions for ways to optimize volcano-observatory crisis operations. By crisis, we mean unrest that may or may not lead to eruption, the eruption itself, or its aftermath, all of which require analysis and communications by the observatory. During a crisis, the priority of the observatory should be to acquire, process, analyze, and interpret data in a timely manner. A primary goal is to communicate effectively with the authorities in charge of civil protection. Crisis operations should rely upon exhaustive planning in the years prior to any actual unrest or eruptions. Ideally, nearly everything that observatories do during a crisis should be envisioned, prepared, and practiced prior to the actual event. Pre-existing agreements and exercises with academic and government collaborators will minimize confusion about roles and responsibilities. In the situation where planning is unfinished, observatories should prioritize close ties and communications with the land and civil-defense authorities near the most threatening volcanoes.To a large extent, volcanic crises become social crises, and any volcano observatory should have a communication strategy, a lead communicator, regular status updates, and a network of colleagues outside the observatory who can provide similar messaging to a public that desires consistent and authoritative information. Checklists permit tired observatory staff to fulfill their duties without forgetting key communications, data streams, or protocols that need regular fulfilment (Bretton et al. Volcanic Unrest. Advances in Volcanology, 2018; Newhall et al. Bull Volcanol 64:3–20, 2020). Observatory leaders need to manage staff workload to prevent exhaustion and ensure that expertise is available as needed. Event trees and regular group discussions encourage multi-disciplinary thinking, consideration of disparate viewpoints, and documentation of all group decisions and consensus. Though regulations, roles and responsibilities differ around the world, scientists can justify their actions in the wake of an eruption if they document their work, are thoughtful and conscientious in their deliberations, and carry out protocols and procedures developed prior to volcanic unrest. This paper also contains six case studies of volcanic eruptions or observatory actions that illustrate some of the topics discussed herein. Specifically, we discuss Ambae (Vanuatu) in 2017–2018, Kīlauea (USA) in 2018, Etna (Italy) in 2018, Bárðarbunga (Iceland) in 2014, Cotopaxi (Ecuador) in 2015, and global data sharing to prepare for eruptions at Nyiragongo (Democratic Republic of Congo). A Spanish-language version of this manuscript is provided as Additional file 1.

We consider the future of volcano observatories in a world where new satellite technologies and global data initiatives have greatly expanded over the last two decades. Observatories remain the critical tie between the decision-making authorities and monitoring data. In the coming decade, the global scientific community needs to continue to collaborate in a manner that will strengthen volcano observatories while building those databases and scientific models that allow us to improve forecasts of eruptions and mitigate their impacts. Observatories in turn need to contribute data to allow these international collaborations to prosper.

Recent activity has provided new insights into the causes of surface deformation in and around the Yellowstone Caldera, a topic that has been debated since the discovery of caldera floor uplift more than four decades ago. An episode of unusually rapid uplift (>15 cm/yr) centered near Norris Geyser Basin along the north caldera rim began in late 2013 and continued until a M_w 4.9 earthquake on 30 March 2014; thereafter, uplift abruptly switched to subsidence. Uplift at rates of several centimeters per year resumed in 2016 and continued at least through the end of 2018. Modeling of Global Positioning System and interferometric synthetic aperture radar data suggests an evolving process of deep magma intrusion during 1996–2001 followed by volatile ascent and accumulation at shallow levels, perhaps as shallow as a few hundred meters depth. The depth of shallow volatile accumulation appears to have shallowed from the 2014 to the 2016 deformation episode, and frequent eruptions of Steamboat Geyser since March 2018 are likely a surface manifestation of this ongoing process. Hydrothermal explosion features are prominent in the Norris Geyser Basin area, and the apparent shallow nature of the volatile accumulation implies an increased risk of hydrothermal explosions.

Alteration in magmatic-hydrothermal systems leads to distinct changes in rock texture and mineralogy, and a strong redistribution of elements between fluid and rock. Here, we experimentally interacted andesite scoria with hyperacidic, high-sulfidation style fluids from Kawah Ijen volcano (Indonesia) at 25 and 100 °C, seeking to reproduce the textures observed in natural samples from this volcano, and to understand the element fluxes that accompany alteration. The susceptibility to alteration in the experiments is Cu–Fe-sulphide > calcic plagioclase > pyroxene > titano-magnetite > sodic plagioclase, with complete preservation of glass. Silicate minerals alter to opaline silica, and gypsum, barite and a Zr-phase precipitate. The selective alteration of the phenocryst minerals results in a preferential release of compatible elements, as the glass is the main incompatible element host. The experiments reproduce the alteration textures of the natural samples, including the preservation of glass, but the predicted compatible over incompatible element enrichment in the alteration element flux is not observed in the natural setting. This suggests that alteration at Kawah Ijen is dominated by lithologies that lack abundant glass, in particular lava flows where the glass has devitrified, despite these lava flows having a lower surface area compared to scoria.