Yiannis N. Krestenitis

This study presents a two-dimensional hydraulic modelling framework for the simulation of flash and compound flooding in coastal urban areas with non-perennial river systems. The model employs a rain-on-grid approach within HEC-RAS v6.7 beta5 (2D solver) to simulate rainfall-driven runoff and explicitly incorporates coastal water-level forcing to represent storm tides. The framework is applied to an ungauged coastal basin in northern Greece using a 50-year return period design storm. Model results show good agreement with official Flood Risk Management Plan maps while identifying additional inundated areas linked to lower-order streams. Compound flooding simulations indicate a 21% increase in flooded areas, highlighting the importance of integrated modelling for operational flood forecasting.

The Black Sea Waters (BSW) that are exported into the Aegean Sea largely control its overturning circulation, as well as its regional biogeochemical characteristics. Numerical modelling studies demonstrate the importance of the BSW outflow and its potential impact if it were to be disrupted, albeit only in a theoretical sense. Recent observational studies suggest a reduction in the exchange of water between the Black Sea and the Aegean Sea. However, all of these studies focus primarily on the impact on the Aegean Sea and do not examine the potential causes of the reduction in Black Sea water outflow. Using datasets spanning four decades, this study investigates the Black Sea’s freshwater surplus decline and reveal a persistent decline that is driven by increased evaporation and reduced riverine inflows. The result is a gradual salinification of the Black Sea, weakening of the surface outflow towards the Mediterranean, and the respective diminishing of the and the Northern Aegean Sea’s characteristic low-salinity layer due to the reduced inflow. The Northern Aegean’s higher salinity and weaker buoyant surface layer reflect these changes, impacting regional circulation and productivity. While sea level rises in both Black Sea and Northern Aegean due to thermal expansion, the increase is stronger in the Northern Aegean. This has led to a diminished sea level difference between the Bosporus and the Dardanelles, confirming the reduced sea level gradient driving the export to the Aegean. The decline in freshwater supply and reduced pressure difference indicate a long-term reduction in export from the Black Sea to the Northern Aegean. This suggests a long-term transition in the Black Sea and Northern Aegean systems, impacting stratification, dense-water formation, and ecosystem functioning in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The summer of 2024 witnessed record-high sea surface temperatures (SST) across the Aegean, Ionian, and Cretan Seas (AICS), following unprecedented air heatwaves over the sea under a long-term warming trend of 0.46 °C/decade for the mean atmospheric temperature (1982–2024). The respective mean SST trend for the same period is even steeper, increasing by 0.59 °C/decade. With mean summer surface waters surpassing 28 °C, particularly in the Ionian Sea, the southern Cretan, and northern Aegean basins, this summer marked the warmest ocean conditions over the past four decades. Despite a relatively lower number of marine heatwaves (MHWs) compared to previous warm years, the duration and cumulative intensity of these events in 2024 were the highest on record, reaching nearly twice the levels seen in 2018, which was the warmest until now. Intense MHWs were recorded, especially in the northern Aegean, with extensive biological consequences to ecosystems like the Thermaikos Gulf, a recognized MHW hotspot. The strong downward atmospheric heat fluxes in the summer of 2024, following an interannual increasing four-decade trend, contributed to the extreme warming of the water masses together with other met-ocean conditions such as lateral exchanges and vertical processes. The high temperatures were not limited to the surface but extended to depths of 50 m in some regions, indicating a deep and widespread warming of the upper ocean. Mechanisms typically mitigating SST rises, such as the Black Sea water (BSW) inflow and coastal upwelling over the eastern Aegean Sea, were weaker in 2024. Cooler water influx from the BSW decreased, as indicated by satellite-derived chlorophyll-a concentrations, while upwelled waters from depths of 40 to 80 m at certain areas showed elevated temperatures, likely limiting their cooling effects on the surface. Prolonged warming of ocean waters in a semi-enclosed basin such as the Mediterranean and its marginal sea sub-basins can have substantial physical, biological, and socioeconomic impacts on the AICS. This research highlights the urgent need for targeted monitoring and mitigation strategies to address the growing impact of MHWs in the region.

The Thermaikos Gulf (TG) is a semi-enclosed, river-influenced, marine system situated in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, sustaining both urban coastal regions and ecologically preserved natural areas. Facing a plethora of environmental and anthropogenic pressures, the TG serves as a critical nexus where human activities intersect with marine ecosystems. The quality and health of the TG’s marine environment are tightly linked to the socioeconomic activities of the coastal communities comprising approximately 1.5 million inhabitants. The main features of the TG’s environmental dynamics and ecological status have been scrutinized by dedicated research endeavors during the last 50 years. This review synthesizes the seminal findings of these investigations, offering an evaluation of their contribution to research, their present collective impact, and their trajectory toward the future. A severe deterioration of the TG’s environmental quality was detected in the 1970s and 1980s when the treatment of urban wastewater was completely absent. A steady trend of recovery was observed after the 1990s; however, so far, the goal of a “good environmental state” mandated by national legislation and European directives has not been achieved. A clear reduction in research was detected after 2010, associated with the recession of the Greek economy, following the “golden period” for research in the TG from the mid-1990s until the late 2000s. The most important research gaps and uncertainties are discussed, while specific targeted recommendations for the improvement of monitoring and understanding of the physical, biochemical, and ecological state of the gulf are provided: (i) increase in permanent observational stations (temporally and spatially); (ii) inclusion of all major environmental parameters; (iii) monitoring of the quantity and quality of all land-originated freshwater discharges; (iv) monitoring and management of important aspects of the marine environment that have received minimal attention in the past (e.g., coastal erosion, plastic pollution); (v) development of accurate prediction tools (e.g., numerical techniques) to support first-level responders and efficient management; (vi) establishment of a supervising public entity that would support the holistic overview and management of the entire TG. These suggestions are directed at overcoming the existing uncertainties in the knowledge of the TG, safeguarding its ecological integrity and its role as a crucial link to marine biodiversity and sustainability in the Mediterranean basin.

Thermaikos Gulf (TG) is a semi-enclosed, river-influenced, marine system situated in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, sustaining both urban coastal regions and ecologically preserved natural areas. Facing a plethora of environmental and anthropogenic pressures, the TG serves as a critical nexus where human activities intersect with marine ecosystems. The second largest city of Greece, Thessaloniki, is located in the northern part of the gulf, while a large environmentally protected zone with multiple river deltas is lying along its western coasts. The quality and health of the TG’s marine environment are tightly linked to the socioeconomic activities of the coastal communities comprising approximately 1.5 million inhabitants. The main features of TG’s environmental dynamics and ecological status have been scrutinized by dedicated research endeavours during the last 50 years. This review synthesizes the seminal findings of these investigations, offering an evaluation of their contribution to research, their present collective impact, and their trajectory toward the future. A severe deterioration of the TG’s environmental quality was detected in the 1970s and 1980s when treatment of urban wastewater was completely absent. A steady trend of recovery was observed after the 1990s, however without achieving, so far, the goal of a “good environmental state”, mandated by national legislation and European directives. The most important research gaps and uncertainties are also discussed and specific recommendations for the improvement of monitoring and understanding about the physical, biochemical, and ecological state of the gulf are provided. The most significant discrepancy is related to the fragmentary monitoring of the TG in both space (partial coverage) and time (temporal gaps), which has been intensified after 2010 due to the reduced funding for environmental research and protection under the severe Greek economic recession. This review aspires to highlight the importance of bolstering monitoring initiatives that can provide continuous observations and further understanding on the TG's ecological and physicochemical conditions. Targeted recommendations, aimed at ameliorating the fragmented monitoring processes, are also provided, advocating for a holistic approach that can safeguard the ecological integrity of the Thermaikos Gulf and uphold its role as a crucial link to marine biodiversity and sustainability in the Mediterranean basin.

A numerical stochastic wave model was developed in this study based on the quasi-coherent theoretical framework proposed by Smit and Janssen in 2013. Subsequently, the model was implemented to reproduce and cross-confirm the findings of the quasi-coherent (QC) spectral wave modeling approach. The process included simulations of experiments conducted by Vincent and Briggs regarding waves propagating over a submerged shoal. The results of the simulations agree with the expected results of the QC theory, which can account for the spatial coherence of inhomogeneous wave fields and capture wave interference more accurately than conventional spectral wave models. In addition, extra insight was gained about aspects of the overall numerical implementation of the QC theory.

Storm surges due to severe weather events threaten low-land littoral areas by increasing the risk of seawater inundation of coastal floodplains. In this paper, we present recent developments of a numerical modelling system for coastal inundation induced by sea level elevation due to storm surges enhanced by astronomical tides. The proposed numerical code (CoastFLOOD) performs high-resolution (5 m × 5 m) raster-based, storage-cell modelling of coastal inundation by Manning-type equations in decoupled 2-D formulation at local-scale (20 km × 20 km) lowland littoral floodplains. It is fed either by outputs of either regional-scale storm surge simulations or satellite altimetry data for the sea level anomaly. The presented case studies refer to model applications at 10 selected coastal sites of the Ionian Sea (east-central Mediterranean Sea). The implemented regular Cartesian grids (up to 5 m) are based on Digital Elevation/Surface Models (DEM/DSM) of the Hellenic Cadastre. New updated features of the model are discussed herein concerning the detailed surveying of terrain roughness and bottom friction, the expansion of Dirichlet boundary conditions for coastal currents (besides sea level), and the enhancement of wet/dry cell techniques for flood front propagation over steep water slopes. Verification of the model is performed by comparisons against satellite ocean color observations (Sentinel-2 images) and estimated flooded areas by the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI). The qualitative comparisons are acceptable, i.e., the modelled flooded areas contain all wet area estimations by NDWI. CoastFLOOD results are also compared to a simplified, static level, “bathtub” inundation approach with hydraulic connectivity revealing very good agreement (goodness-of-fit > 0.95). Furthermore, we show that proper treatment of bottom roughness referring to realistic Land Cover datasets provides more realistic estimations of the maximum flood extent timeframe.

The sea surface temperature (SST) is an important factor and indicator of the sea water quality, with various ecological and anthropogenic implications. We used high-resolution satellite-derived SST data, in tandem with field observations and long-term meteorological data, to investigate the spatial and interannual SST variability over the Aegean, Ionian, and Cretan (AIC) Seas during the recent 14-year period (2008–2021). Increasing trends were identified for most of the sub-basins of the AIC Seas. The numbers and durations (days) of the marine heat waves (MHWs) have significantly increased, especially during the last quadrennial period (2018–2021). Changes have been detected in both the maximum and minimum values; however, the trend of the mean annual values is mainly associated with the interannual increases in the lowest values (weaker minima during the cold seasons). The interannual variability and the increasing positive trends of the air temperature are very similar to the SST variations, showing a 5-to-10-day lag between the seasonal time series of the two parameters for all regions; however, extreme atmospheric events (e.g., cold fronts or heat waves) have a more direct impact on the SST variability (zero lag). MHWs were more frequent over the northern Aegean Sea, especially in Thermaikos Gulf, which is characterized as a “hot spot” for MHWs. MHWs were rarer over the southern regions, especially over the southeastern Aegean and Cretan Seas. A stratified upper ocean, controlled by buoyant brackish plumes, such as the Black Sea Waters (BSW) in the northern Aegean, may increase the heat storage capacity of the surface water masses, contributing to the further warming of the ocean. This was the case in the summer of 2021, which was a unique year for the AIC Seas, and especially for the northern Aegean, which revealed the highest SST values among all the study years. The satellite-derived observations of the 2008–2021 period showed increasing trends for all coastal waters, strong trend slopes for most of the coasts of the northern Aegean and central Ionian Seas, and milder trend slopes in the eastern Aegean.