Joshua C. Bregy

Streamflow variability is a critical component of water availability across the South Atlantic-Gulf (SAG) water resource region of the United States, yet long-term coherence among basins remains poorly understood. We developed independent May–July streamflow reconstructions for the Roanoke River (South Atlantic), Pascagoula River (southern Mississippi Basin), and St. Johns River (northern and central Florida) spanning 1100–2015 CE. Each reconstruction is highly skillful (RE = 0.39–0.62; CE = 0.39–0.62) and explains 51–63% of observed variance. Across the 916-year record, only five droughts affected all three basins simultaneously, yet three occurred since 2000 (2006, 2007, 2011). These 21st-century droughts were broader and more spatially coherent than comparable events in 1491 and 1587. Basin-to-basin comparisons reveal shared low-flow years were most frequent between the Pascagoula and St. Johns Rivers (15 events), followed by Roanoke–Pascagoula (12) and Roanoke–St. Johns (9). When the St. Johns River experienced low [high] flows, the Pascagoula River had a 40% [48%] likelihood of concurrent extremes—the highest regional coherence observed. Low-flow events for individual basins lasted 2–3 years on average, with the longest drought persisting 26 years on the St. Johns (1459 CE). For both the Pascagoula and St. Johns River, return intervals based on observational streamflow records underestimated the recurrence frequency of extreme events like the early-2000s low flow event by 100–500 years. In contrast, observationally based return intervals on the Roanoke overestimate the length of time between the driest events, indicating severe droughts are more likely to occur than previously thought. These findings illustrate the risk of multi-basin droughts in the SAG region, particularly for the closely linked Pascagoula and St. Johns basins. Future drought planning and water-resource management must account not only for drought in individual basins, but the complex effects of synchronous hydrologic drought across the region.

Droughts and tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the deadliest and costliest natural hazards and are expected to intensify in the twenty‐first century due to anthropogenic climate change. The Hurricane Region of the Americas (HRA), an area frequently affected by TCs and droughts, is home to some of the most vulnerable countries to these hazards and the impacts of climate change worldwide. While TCs and drought have been extensively studied separately, little research has been conducted on their interplay in the HRA, particularly in areas lacking quality long‐term climate data. In this work, we analyze the impact of TCs on drought characteristics, such as severity and duration, in the HRA from 1983 to 2024. We use high‐resolution gridded climate data and a variety of drought metrics to conduct our analysis. We find that, while TCs on average contribute to 4%–15% of annual and seasonal mean precipitation across the region, they also ameliorated or terminated drought at least once in ∼60% of the HRA in a single month in 1983–2024. As TCs continue to get wetter and droughts become more severe in the 21st century, it is critical to understand their interactions for water resource management and climate adaptation.

Summer circulation and moisture patterns in the Southeast United States are controlled by the position of the North Atlantic subtropical high. In a warming climate, the subtropical high is projected to strengthen and expand west, but there remains uncertainty regarding its variability and linkages to natural drivers. Here, we use a tree-ring network across the Southeast United States to reconstruct the relative intensity of the pressure gradient across the subtropical high’s western flank over the past 870 years. Variations in the flank’s position and the pressure gradient have been a major driver of the hydroclimate—including creating a Southeast-Caribbean moisture dipole—since 1140 CE. We document a significant increase in flank positional variability since 1900 CE, with westward migrations becoming more extreme. Likewise, major volcanic eruptions cause a multiyear period of westward positioning, leading to distinct regional moisture gradients. Our record highlights important changes in flank behavior, which has important implications for water resource management in a warming world.

The short and biased observational record of tropical cyclones (TCs) limits scientific understanding of how these destructive storms respond to climate forcing. Paleohurricane records use natural archives (tree rings, coarse‐grained sediment) to reconstruct TC properties (frequency and intensity of rainfall, wind) over the past few hundreds to thousands of years. However, different sensitivities and sampling biases in the various paleohurricane proxies restrict our ability to compile these records into regional or basin‐scale TC estimates. Here we test how well pseudo tree‐ring records of paleohurricanes capture TC rainfall and occurrence. Using a large set of statistically downscaled storms forced with the Max Planck Institute (MPI‐ESM‐P) model as boundary conditions for the past millennium, we generate a 1000‐member ensemble of pseudo tree‐ring records of latewood width from southern Mississippi using a Poisson process‐based random draw. Pseudo records convert synthetic TC rainfall into latewood width using a previously published statistical calibration and seasonal sensitivity. We show that fourth quantile thresholds applied to pseudo latewood data successfully identify years with TC strikes. Comparing pseudo tree‐ring records with pseudo sediment records from the Gulf Coast indicates promise in combining proxies sensitive to TC rainfall with proxies sensitive to storm overwash. Sediment records that are sensitive to lower intensity storms (≥Saffir Simpson Category 1) are more compatible with tree‐ring records, suggesting a need for more of these low intensity threshold records in the Gulf to facilitate future multi‐proxy efforts to reconstruct past TC properties.

Over recent decades, the southeastern United States (Southeast) has become increasingly well represented by the terrestrial climate proxy record. However, while the paleo proxy records capture the region's hydroclimatic history over the last several centuries, the understanding of near surface air temperature variability is confined to the comparatively shorter observational period (1895‐present). Here, we detail the application of blue intensity (BI) methods on a network of tree‐ring collections and examine their utility for producing robust paleotemperature estimates. Results indicate that maximum latewood BI (LWBI) chronologies exhibit positive and temporally stable correlations ( r = 0.28–0.54, p < 0.01) with summer maximum temperatures. As such, we use a network of LWBI chronologies to reconstruct August‐September average maximum temperatures for the Southeast spanning the period 1760–2010 CE. Our work demonstrates the utility of applying novel dendrochronological techniques to improve the understanding of the multi‐centennial temperature history of the Southeast.

Since 2013, extreme floods within the Santee River basin (North/South Carolina, USA) caused $1.5B in damage. The instrumental period, however, is too short to determine if recent extreme events are anomalous within a long‐term context. Here, we present reconstructions of storm‐, base‐, and total streamflow for the Santee River using a multi‐species tree‐ring network calibrated to flow data during the period 1923–2018. Tree‐ring data explained higher variance (r = 0.59; p < 0.01; 900–2018) of instrumental baseflow than total streamflow (r = 0.41; p < 0.01; 1500–2018) or stormflow (r = 0.26; p < 0.05; 1690–2018). Our reconstruction reveals a long‐term increase in baseflow over the past millennium. The North Atlantic subtropical high regulates baseflow in the Santee River (r = 0.45; p < 0.01). Recent high levels of baseflow may be connected to the position of the subtropical high, increasing the likelihood of flooding.

Understanding the response of tropical cyclone precipitation to ongoing climate change is essential to determine associated flood risk. However, instrumental records are short-term and fail to capture the full range of variability in seasonal totals of precipitation from tropical cyclones. Here we present a 473-year-long tree-ring proxy record comprised of longleaf pine from excavated coffins, a historical house, remnant stumps, and living trees in southern Mississippi, USA. We use cross-dating dendrochronological analyses calibrated with instrumental records to reconstruct tropical cyclone precipitation stretching back to 1540 CE. We compare this record to potential climatic controls of interannual and multidecadal tropical cyclone precipitation variability along the Gulf Coast. We find that tropical cyclone precipitation declined significantly in the two years following large Northern Hemisphere volcanic eruptions and is influenced by the behavior of the North Atlantic subtropical high-pressure system. Additionally, we suggest that tropical cyclone precipitation variability is significantly, albeit weakly, related to Atlantic multidecadal variability. Finally, we suggest that we need to establish a network for reconstructing precipitation from tropical cyclones in the Southeast USA if we want to capture regional tropical cyclone behavior and associated flood risks.

Despite significant advances in methods, reconstructions using multiple proxies are uncommon in paleotempestology. Studies employing multiproxy techniques often rely on homologous proxies (e.g., grain-size distribution and organic content, or total ring width and maximum latewood density) that complement one another as they often reflect similar processes occurring within tropical cyclones. Unifying seemingly diametric proxies (i.e., tree rings and overwash deposits) receives less attention as they typically record different aspects of a tropical cyclone over substantially different temporal resolutions. However, given the spatial characteristics of storm-related hazards, tree rings and overwash might be far more complementary than previously thought. Here, I present work reconstructing tropical cyclone rainfall using tree rings, from which I develop frequency curves based on the number of years receiving tropical cyclone rainfall amounts ≥75th percentile. Using this new metric, I compare tree-ring-based reconstructions with near-annually- to decadally-resolved sediment records from Florida and The Bahamas. Through this comparison, I demonstrate both synchronous and asynchronous behavior between records, highlighting the possible presence of regional signatures and climate controls in storm activity. While there remain numerous discrepancies between these records, this comparison serves as an example that these proxies augment one another when viewed through the lens of regional shifts in the hurricane climate. Given that trees respond to the widespread footprint of tropical cyclone rainfall, independent of storm intensity, tree rings may better capture regional changes in storm activity. As such, turning to the shorter, yet higher-resolution tree-ring record can provide additional context to active and quiescent intervals observed in overwash records, especially at sites with a higher sensitivity threshold. Comparing these two proxies is still in its infancy; however, we can use techniques unique to a particular proxy to produce analogous records of tropical cyclone activity. In addition to developing analogous records, is important to explore nontraditional signals of tropical cyclones in these proxies. In particular, I will discuss two approaches that could be key for developing holistic records of storm activity in the Gulf of Mexico. The first uses growth suppressions and geochemical signals in coastal trees in response to saltwater intrusion, while the second examines the sedimentary and geochemical signature of inland flooding from tropical cyclones. The advancement of paleotempestology necessitates developing multiproxy reconstructions. All of these novel approaches and proxies complement records of overwash, which is one of the few proxies able to provide a quantitative estimate of storm magnitude. Moreover, using these proxies in conjunction with one another is critical for understanding changes in the regional hurricane climate and reducing the manifold risks associated with tropical cyclones.

Our understanding of the natural variability of hydroclimate before the instrumental period (ca. 1900 CE in the United States) is largely dependent on tree-ring-based reconstructions. Large-scale soil moisture reconstructions from a network of tree-ring chronologies have greatly improved our understanding of the spatial and temporal variability in hydroclimate conditions, particularly extremes of both drought and pluvial (wet) events. However, certain regions within these large-scale network reconstructions in the US are modeled by few tree-ring chronologies. Further, many of the chronologies currently publicly available on the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) were collected in the 1980s and 1990s, and thus our understanding of the sensitivity of radial growth to soil moisture in the US is based on a period that experienced multiple extremely severe droughts and neglects the impacts of recent, rapid global change. In this study, we expanded the tree-ring network of the Ohio River valley in the US, a region with sparse coverage. We used a total of 72 chronologies across 15 species to examine how increasing the density of the tree-ring network influences the representation of reconstructing the Palmer Meteorological Drought Index (PMDI). Further, we tested how the sampling date and therefore the calibration period influenced the reconstruction models by creating reconstructions that ended in the year 1980 and compared them to reconstructions ending in 2010 from the same chronologies. We found that increasing the density of the tree-ring network resulted in reconstructed values that better matched the spatial variability of instrumentally recorded droughts and, to a lesser extent, pluvials. By extending the calibration period to 2010 compared to 1980, the sensitivity of tree rings to PMDI decreased in the southern portion of our region where severe drought conditions have been absent over recent decades. We emphasize the need of building a high-density tree-ring network to better represent the spatial variability of past droughts and pluvials. Further, chronologies on the ITRDB need updating regularly to better understand how the sensitivity of tree rings to climate may vary through time.