Igor A. Mayburov

This study examines the relative implementation efficiency under a specified input–output framework and documented sustainability outcomes of New Development Bank (NDB)-financed infrastructure projects in India, China, and South Africa. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is applied to 24 projects using loan amount and planned project duration as inputs and completion status and disbursement rate as outputs. An input-oriented Variable Returns to Scale (VRS) model is employed as the primary specification, complemented by Constant Returns to Scale (CRS) and scale-efficiency estimates. The results indicate substantial variation in relative implementation efficiency, with mean VRS efficiency of 0.631 and only three projects reaching the efficiency frontier. Mean scale efficiency is 0.882, with 17 of 24 projects exhibiting full scale efficiency. Sustainability evidence was available for 20 projects and was organized using a Sustainable Infrastructure Outcome Matrix (SIOM), which records project-specific environmental, social, and economic/development outcomes without aggregating heterogeneous indicators into a single sustainability index. Comparison of the efficiency and sustainability profiles indicates that implementation efficiency and documented sustainability outcomes do not necessarily coincide. Supplementary analysis further shows that financial disbursement represents a distinct dimension of project performance. The findings support a multidimensional approach to evaluating NDB infrastructure projects in which implementation efficiency, financial execution, and project-specific sustainability outcomes are assessed separately but considered together.

This article explores the development of methodological tools for assessing and managing the resource efficiency of Russia's fuel and energy complex (FEC) in the context of energy transformation, geopolitical instability, and increasing demands for sustainable development. The objective of the study is to develop a comprehensive approach to assessing the resource efficiency of FEC sectors based on the principles of resource conservation, resource security, and balanced development. The methodological basis of the study includes system and factor analysis, a comparative assessment of industry indicators, and forecasting methods. An integrated assessment system is proposed that combines indicators of resource intensity, resource conservation, and resource security. A set of indicators has been developed, including energy intensity, energy losses, return on investment in resource-saving measures, the level of fixed capital renewal, energy self-sufficiency, and the share of renewable energy sources. The developed toolkit was tested using data from key sectors of the Russian fuel and energy complex for 2020–2024, including the oil and gas sector, coal mining, oil refining, electric and thermal power generation, pipeline transportation, and water supply. The study results revealed significant intersectoral differentiation in resource efficiency levels. It was established that the reduction in energy intensity in the extractive and processing industries was largely due to favorable pricing conditions, while in the electric power sector, improvements were primarily due to technological modernization. Industries located in zones of qualitative growth, price masking, and systemic risk were identified. The hypothesis that price factors have a dominant influence on energy intensity dynamics in the fuel and energy complex was confirmed. The developed toolkit can be used to formulate industry strategies for resource conservation, improve energy security, and implement sustainable development principles.

Excise taxes on tobacco, alcohol, and other unhealthy products are widely regarded as important policy instruments for improving public health, yet their effectiveness may vary across regions with different consumption patterns and socioeconomic characteristics. This study examines the relationship between excise taxation and health outcomes in China, with particular attention to regional heterogeneity between northern and southern provinces and differences in urbanization levels. The analysis is based on a balanced panel dataset covering 31 Chinese provinces from 2015 to 2024. A two-way fixed effects model with province-clustered robust standard errors is employed to estimate the association between excise tax revenues and two health indicators: mortality rates and healthcare visits. The results show that higher excise tax revenues are associated with improved health outcomes. At the national level, a 1% increase in excise tax revenue corresponds to approximately 0.015–0.017% decline in mortality and a 0.014% reduction in healthcare visits. However, the magnitude of these effects remains relatively modest. Significant regional differences are identified. The health effect of excise taxation is statistically significant in northern provinces but insignificant in southern provinces. Interaction analysis confirms that excise taxes contribute more strongly to mortality reduction in the north. Additional evidence from urbanization-based subgroup analysis indicates that the largest effects occur in northern low-urbanization areas, where traditional unhealthy consumption habits are more deeply rooted and price sensitivity is higher. Vegetable consumption consistently demonstrates a protective association with health outcomes, while cigarette production is linked to poorer health indicators. The findings suggest that the effectiveness of excise taxation depends on regional consumption culture and local socioeconomic conditions. These results support the development of more differentiated and region-sensitive excise tax policies aimed at promoting healthier lifestyles and reducing health inequalities in China.

Improving tax compliance among small and medium-sized enterprises remains a critical challenge for fiscal sustainability in developing economies, where administrative capacity is limited and traditional enforcement mechanisms are costly. Although behavioral interventions based on “nudge” theory have demonstrated promising results in tax compliance research, rigorous experimental evidence for business taxpayers in Sub-Saharan Africa remains scarce. This study examines the effectiveness of low-cost behavioral interventions in improving small and medium-sized enterprises tax compliance at the municipal level in Ethiopia. A randomized controlled trial was conducted in Woldia Town using a stratified random sample of 120 formally registered small and medium-sized enterprises. Firms were randomly assigned to one of four groups: a control group, a reminder intervention group, a social norm intervention group, and a combined intervention group. Tax compliance was measured as a binary outcome based on timely filing and payment using administrative tax records. Treatment effects were estimated under an intention-to-treat framework using logistic regression and average marginal effects. The results indicate that all behavioral interventions significantly improve tax compliance relative to the control group. Reminder messages produce the strongest individual effect, increasing the probability of compliance by 54 percentage points, while social norm messages increase compliance by 27 percentage points. The combined intervention yields the largest overall effect, increasing compliance probability by 68 percentage points, although the effect is not strictly additive. Firm-level characteristics and owner demographics are not statistically significant predictors of compliance, suggesting that behavioral interventions outweigh structural determinants in this context. This study contributes to the tax compliance literature by providing rare causal evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa and demonstrating that simple, scalable reminder systems constitute an effective and cost-efficient policy instrument for improving SME tax compliance in resource-constrained settings.

The transformation of tax administration in the context of digitalization and risk-based approaches has fundamentally altered the role of tax audits, raising new challenges for their evaluation. In Russia, the current system of performance indicators for on-site tax audits remains largely focused on formal fiscal outcomes, particularly the amount of additionally assessed taxes, which may lead to a distorted understanding of their effectiveness and broader economic impact. This study aims to assess the completeness and adequacy of the existing system of performance indicators for on-site tax audits in Russia. The paper hypothesizes that the current evaluation framework fails to capture key dimensions of effectiveness and performance, particularly those related to actual revenue collection, long-term behavioural effects, and the quality of control procedures. To address this issue, the study employs a triangulation approach combining three sources of evidence: (i) indicators derived from 22 academic studies, (ii) the OECD framework for tax administration performance, and (iii) the current system of indicators used by the Federal Tax Service of Russia. The analysis is complemented by a logical structuring of evaluation criteria using Ishikawa diagrams and a comparative assessment of convergence and divergence across the three datasets. The results reveal significant divergences in the Russian system, including the absence of indicators reflecting actual tax collection, deterrence effects, audit quality, and sectoral differentiation, as well as a limited orientation toward strategic objectives such as reducing the tax gap. At the same time, the findings identify important areas of convergence, particularly the recognition of effectiveness as a multidimensional concept. The study contributes to the literature by proposing a more comprehensive framework for evaluating tax audit performance and provides policy-relevant insights for improving tax administration systems in the context of digital transformation.

This study examines whether stricter enforcement of mandatory social insurance contributions affects corporate income tax behavior in China. In the Chinese institutional context, mandatory social insurance refers to payroll-based employer and employee contributions to five statutory programs: basic pension insurance, basic medical insurance, work-injury insurance, unemployment insurance, and maternity insurance. These programs are directly related to social sustainability because they finance old-age income security, medical protection, workplace injury compensation, unemployment support, maternity protection, and labor-market stability. Using China’s 2018 social insurance collection reform as a quasi-natural experiment, we analyze A-share listed companies from 2014 to 2024 through a difference-in-differences design based on differential exposure between private firms and state-owned enterprises. To assess the reliability of the identification strategy, we employ firm and year fixed effects, event-study analysis, placebo tests, alternative measures of tax avoidance, and propensity score matching difference-in-differences robustness checks. The findings show a tax-fee seesaw effect: private firms subject to extensive regulatory scrutiny respond to more rigorous enforcement of social insurance contributions by increasing corporate income tax avoidance. Analysis of the mechanisms shows that the Whited-Wu index of financial constraints partially explains this phenomenon. The effect is more pronounced in firms with higher labor costs and greater administrative expense intensity, indicating that the increased response is driven by labor cost exposure and organizational discretion. By contrast, the effect is weaker among firms audited by the Big Four accounting networks—Deloitte, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Ernst & Young, and KPMG—indicating that high-quality external audits constrain aggressive tax planning. Regionally, the effect is most pronounced in eastern China, where markets, labor costs, and tax-planning services are more developed. The findings contribute to the sustainable development literature by demonstrating that reforms designed to strengthen social insurance sustainability can unintentionally weaken tax compliance if payroll contributions, tax administration, and corporate financial pressures are not coordinated. The study highlights the importance of integrated fiscal governance for achieving socially sustainable and fiscally balanced development.

The study investigated the correlation of corporate digital transformation and tax avoidance among non-financial listed companies in China from 2011 to 2023. In the context of the rapidly evolving digital economy, we seek to assess how technological advances such as artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, and blockchain are impacting corporate tax behavior. Our hypothesis suggests digital transformation enhances financial operational capabilities and refines sophisticated tax planning, thereby increasing the likelihood of corporate tax avoidance. The results, based on annual report data, reveal a significant positive correlation: a one-unit increase in digital transformation is associated with a 0.06% increase in book tax difference (BTD), indicating that companies with higher levels of digitalization are more likely to engage in tax avoidance. Further heterogeneity analysis reveals that this effect is more pronounced among non-state-owned enterprises and companies audited by the Big Four accounting firms. These findings challenge the view that digital transformation inherently promotes tax compliance and instead highlights the potential of digital tools to facilitate tax avoidance. Furthermore, the observed heterogeneity across ownership structures and audit quality indicates that institutional environment and governance quality are important moderators in the digitalization-tax avoidance nexus. Our research underlines the urgent need for the government to strengthen digital tax governance to mitigate the unintended consequences of technological advancement, thereby emphasizing the importance and urgency of the issue.

The objective of this study was to determine the impact of general characteristics of a risk-based approach on the certainty of tax participants' behavior. This study utilized systematic review methods, economic and mathematical modeling, and game theory. The PRISMA methodology was used to conduct systematic reviews. This methodology involves searching databases for articles of interest using keywords. Of the 4,585 articles identified for the period 2013–2025, 38 studies were included in the qualitative synthesis after completing the identification, selection, and eligibility screening stages. The search for sources was conducted on ResearchGate and Scopus platforms. Based on the results of the systematic review, the risk-based approach mechanism is presented as a system of three interrelated elements: the organization of tax risk assessment, the prevention mechanism, and the tax risk avoidance mechanism. The selected scientific papers include studies of risk-based approaches in tax control systems in 15 countries. In analyzing the qualitative data obtained, we formulated characteristics common to all the countries studied for each element of the risk-based approach to tax control. To study taxpayer behavior under various risk-based tax control systems, we applied game theory, specifically the zero-sum antagonist game model, as the most appropriate way to characterize tax relations between the state and taxpayers. It should be noted that the zero-sum antagonist game model includes different behavioral strategies depending on certain conditions. This condition is represented by the parameter of uncertainty in the participants' behavior. Using the Fechner coefficient, we established the relationship between these parameters and each of the formulated general characteristics of the risk-based approach. The cross-country model, formed in the form of a system of mathematical equations based on the identified relationships, confirms the hypothesis posed in this study.

This study investigates the size, determinants, and fiscal impact of Ethiopia’s shadow economy from 1990 to 2023, addressing a critical gap in understanding how pervasive informality constrains tax policy and revenue mobilization in developing economies. The research employs a sequential three-stage econometric methodology. First, an Enhanced Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (EMIMIC) model, estimated within a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework, is used to quantify the latent shadow economy, analysing seven cause variables (e. g., tax burden, GDP per capita, government expenditure) and four indicator variables (e. g., self-employment, electricity consumption gap). Second, these estimates are calibrated to construct a shadow-adjusted GDP series. Third, the fiscal implications are rigorously assessed through comparative Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models and Diebold-Mariano tests to evaluate differences in tax elasticity and revenue forecasting performance between conventional and shadow-adjusted specifications. The results reveal a dramatic expansion of the shadow economy from 24.79 % to 61.69 % of official GDP over the period. The analysis identifies a paradoxical positive association with GDP per capita (+0.581) and a significant negative relationship with government expenditure (-0.350), while the direct tax burden is statistically insignificant. Fiscal impact analysis demonstrates that accounting for informality alters the long-run tax elasticity estimate by 13.8 %. The recommendations include integrating shadow economy estimates into national accounts and fiscal planning, simplifying tax systems through broad-based digital presumptive regimes, and using public procurement to encourage business formalization. Together, these measures can support a more sustainable and inclusive fiscal framework.

Excessive corporate use of fossil fuels has significantly worsened global air quality. In response, many governments, including China’s, have implemented tax incentives to promote sustainable development, though their effectiveness at the firm level remains unclear. This study empirically examines the relationship between tax incentives and corporate green transition using a panel of 30,483 firm-year observations from Chinese A-share non-financial listed firms spanning 2009–2023. We construct a Green Sustainable Development Performance (GSDP) index based on green patent applications and environmental disclosure and identify innovation investment as the main transmission mechanism. The results show that stronger tax incentives are associated with higher GSDP scores. This relationship is largely driven by innovation: after controlling R&D input, the direct effect of tax incentives declines, while the indirect effect through innovation remains both statistically and economically significant. The effect is more evident in large firms and those in eastern provinces, but weaker in regions with higher financial constraints with limited time lags. The findings offer practical implications for designing targeted, verifiable, and innovation-oriented tax instruments to foster high-quality, sustainable corporate development.