Michael B. McElroy

Wind power is pivotal to global decarbonization, and China leads in both installed capacity and recent expansion. Yet rapid capacity expansion has not translated into commensurate growth in usable electricity. Here we reconstruct generation for 10,032 wind farms in China spanning 1989-2022 and find that over 20% of technically available generation is not utilized. Decomposition reveals that while grid-connection delays and officially reported curtailment have declined by ~70% in the past decade, a residual component - soft curtailment - has emerged. This component represents unreported losses arising from system inflexibility and regulatory distortions, such as rigid dispatch, strict curtailment targets, and premature reporting of grid connection incentivized by feed-in tariff policies. Soft curtailment now dominates wind power underperformance in China, offsetting technological improvements expected to raise capacity factors by ~20%, leaving them largely unchanged overall. Absorbing the unrealized generation through storage at multiple timescales and matching to flexible loads could enable China to reach its 2060 wind generation target for carbon neutrality up to 13 years earlier and avoid over 20 Gt CO₂ emissions cumulatively.

Green methanol could help decarbonize transport and industry, but its production roadmap remains uncertain because biomass conversion, renewable hydrogen supply, the emissions and cost of electricity are tightly coupled. Here we show, using pilot-scale gasification data and industrial process parameters, how four biomass- and renewable-power-based methanol routes differ in technical performance, life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and production cost, and identify deployment-relevant boundary conditions. Gasification integrated with renewable hydrogen balances carbon utilization and energy efficiency, reaching 92% and 54%, respectively. Direct combustion followed by carbon dioxide hydrogenation raises carbon utilization to 96% but requires substantially more electrolysis-derived hydrogen. Under hybrid wind and solar power, all routes remain below the European low-carbon fuel threshold, although the maximum electricity emission factors compatible with this threshold vary from 0.057 to 0.373 kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour. Gasification without added hydrogen is currently the least-cost route. Hydrogen-integrated gasification approaches its cost when renewable electricity falls below US$21 per megawatt-hour, and approaches coal-based methanol costs at carbon prices of US$40-90 per tonne of carbon dioxide. These results define practical boundaries for route deployment.

This chapter sums up how the intersection of scientific progress and economic policy can resolve the conflict between decarbonization and development not only in India but also for many of the developing countries located within the Earth’s tropical belt. It envisions transforming arid lands into solar power hubs, locating wind power turbines on farms in the dryland farming regions, and investing in biomass gasifiers fed by crop residues in every village in the irrigated, double and triple cropping areas of the country. These can provide the guaranteed 24 hour power supply that cold storage units need but have so far not received in any one of India’s 6,40,000 villages. Cold storages will allow horticulturists to control the price of their produce, instead of being at the mercy of the wholesalers who buy their produced by power supplied by gasification of crop residues. This would have particular advantage for the villages that hosted the irrigated areas fathered by the Green Revolution in the 1960s.

This chapter estimates the projected increase in demand for hydrogen in India. Hydrogen is currently produced entirely from oil, and the demand for it is expected to rise from 4.4 million tonnes in 2019 to 136.7 million tonnes by 2050. Hydrogen obtained from this source, referred to as grey hydrogen, is therefore a very important source of carbon dioxide. However, hydrogen can also be produced from in two other ways. The first is via electrolysis, by passing renewable electricity through water. The second is via biomass gasification, using the water gas process to convert carbon monoxide into hydrogen with an additional, residual ‘green’ CO2. This chapter first examines the substantial reduction in cost required to make green hydrogen obtained from electrolysis competitive with grey. It then explores the opportunity to produce green hydrogen through the gasification of biomass.

The chapter provides an in-depth analysis of India’s attempts to shift out of fossil fuels. It discusses the country’s initial experiments with concentrated solar thermal (CSP) power, solar photovoltaic (SPV) power, and wind power. It describes the subsequent decision to forego CSP, the rapid growth of wind power, and so far ineffective attempts to find an alternative to fossil fuels as an energy source in the transport sector. It reports outcomes of a conference co-hosted by NITI Aayog and the Rocky Mountain Institute in 2017 with participation by a number of influential Indian industrialists. The conference explored strategies to replace the use of fossil fuels as an energy source in the transportation sector with electric alternatives. It was followed 3 months later by a surprise announcement by NITI Aayog that India would replace its entire passenger vehicle fleet with electric cars by 2040.