Thelma Alafia Samuels

Addressing the World Health Organization’s noncommunicable disease (NCD) “best buys” is key to reducing the disease burden in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Yet, the potential impact of addressing NCD risk factors on current health expenditures (CHE) in LAC countries is unknown. This study uses both Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data and administrative information to model the impact of addressing four risk factors on CHE trends for 24 LAC countries. A comparative risk assessment model estimates changes in CHE associated with reducing five NCDs. Reducing the prevalence of the four risk factors by 10% could save $ 185 billion in cumulative expenditure by 2050 (1.32% of cumulative expenditure from 2020 to 2050) for all LAC countries assessed, with substantial heterogeneity across risk factors. Reducing the prevalence of high blood pressure had the largest impact. On average, a reduction of 10% in high blood pressure, tobacco use, high blood glucose, and alcohol use would reduce cumulative CHE by US$59bn (0.4% of the cumulative CHE by 2050), US$68bn (0.5%), US$46bn (0.3%), and US$12bn (0.1%), respectively for all LAC countries. While addressing NCD risk factors is a key step to improving health in LAC countries, the impact on CHE is relatively small though meaningful in absolute terms, and additional strategies need to be implemented to control increasing CHE levels that threaten health systems’ sustainability.

Diabetes and obesity present a high and increasing burden of disease in the Caribbean that have failed to respond to prevention policies and interventions. These conditions are the result of a complex system of drivers and determinants that can make it difficult to predict the impact of interventions. In partnership with stakeholders, we developed a system dynamics simulation model to map the system driving diabetes and obesity prevalence in the Caribbean using Jamaica as a test case. The study aims to use the model to assess the magnitude changes necessary in physical activity and dietary intake to achieve global targets set by the WHO Global Action plan and to test scenarios for interventions to reduce the burden of diabetes and obesity. Continuing current trends in diet, physical activity, and demographics, the model predicts diabetes in Jamaican adults (20+ years) to rise from 12% in 2018 to 15.4% in 2030 and 20.9% by 2050. For obesity, it predicts prevalence to rise from 28.6% in 2018 to 32.1% by 2030 and 39.2% by 2050. The magnitude change necessary to achieve the global targets set by the World Health Organization is so great as to be unachievable. However, a combination of measures both upstream (including reducing the consumption of sugar sweetened beverages and ultra processed foods, increasing fruit and vegetable intake, and increasing moderate-to-vigorous activity) at the population level, and downstream (targeting people at high risk and with diabetes) can significantly reduce the future burden of diabetes and obesity in the region. No single intervention reduces the prevalence of these conditions as much as a combination of interventions. Thus, the findings of this model strongly support adopting a sustained and coordinated approach across various sectors to synergistically maximise the benefits of interventions.

Analysis of the temporal, seasonal and demographic distribution of dengue virus (DENV) infections in Barbados was conducted using national surveillance data from a total of 3994 confirmed dengue cases. Diagnosis was confirmed either by DENV–specific real time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT–PCR), or non–structural protein 1 (NS1) antigen or enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) tests; a case fatality rate of 0.4% (10/3994) was observed. The dengue fever (DF) prevalence varied from 27.5 to 453.9 cases per 100,000 population among febrile patients who sought medical attention annually. DF cases occurred throughout the year with low level of transmission observed during the dry season (December to June), then increased transmission during rainy season (July to November) peaking in October. Three major dengue epidemics occurred in Barbados during 2010, 2013 and possibly 2016 with an emerging three–year interval. DF prevalence among febrile patients who sought medical attention overall was highest among the 10–19 years old age group. The highest DF hospitalisation prevalence was observed in 2013. Multiple serotypes circulated during the study period and Dengue virus serotype 2 (DENV–2) was the most prevalent serotype during 2010, whilst DENV–1 was the most prevalent serotype in 2013. Two DENV–1 strains from the 2013 DENV epidemic were genetically more closely related to South East Asian strains, than Caribbean or South American strains, and represent the first ever sequencing of DENV strains in Barbados. However, the small sample size (n = 2) limits any meaningful conclusions. DF prevalence was not significantly different between females and males. Public health planning should consider DENV inter–epidemic periodicity, the current COVID–19 pandemic and similar clinical symptomology between DF and COVID–19. The implementation of routine sequencing of DENV strains to obtain critical data can aid in battling DENV epidemics in Barbados.

Many Small Island Developing States of the Caribbean experience a triple burden of malnutrition with high rates of obesity, undernutrition in children, and iron deficiency anemia in women of reproductive age, driven by an inadequate, unhealthy diet. This study aimed to map the complex dynamic systems driving unhealthy eating and to identify potential points for intervention in three dissimilar countries. Stakeholders from across the food system in Jamaica (n = 16), St. Kitts and Nevis (n = 19), and St. Vincent and the Grenadines (n = 6) engaged with researchers in two group model building (GMB) workshops in 2018. Participants described and mapped the system driving unhealthy eating, identified points of intervention, and created a prioritized list of intervention strategies. Stakeholders were also interviewed before and after the workshops to provide their perspectives on the utility of this approach. Stakeholders described similar underlying systems driving unhealthy eating across the three countries, with a series of dominant feedback loops identified at multiple levels. Participants emphasized the importance of the relative availability and price of unhealthy foods, shifting cultural norms on eating, and aggressive advertising from the food industry as dominant drivers. They saw opportunities for governments to better regulate advertising, disincentivize unhealthy food options, and bolster the local agricultural sector to promote food sovereignty. They also identified the need for better coordinated policy making across multiple sectors at national and regional levels to deliver more integrated approaches to improving nutrition. GMB proved to be an effective tool for engaging a highly diverse group of stakeholders in better collective understanding of a complex problem and potential interventions.

Hantavirus and dengue virus (DENV) infections are caused by RNA viruses which infect immune systems’ cells including monocytes, macrophages and dendritic cells and occur year-round in Barbados. A retrospective serological study (2008–2015) was conducted on hantavirus and dengue patient sera confirmed by IgM and IgG ELISA, NS1 and RT-PCR using Limulus amoebocyte lysate (LAL) kinetic turbidimetric method to determine serum endotoxin levels. Hantavirus patients were categorized into two groups, namely (a) hospitalized and (b) non-hospitalized. Dengue patients were categorized into 3 groups using 2009 WHO dengue guidelines (a) severe dengue (SD), (b) hospitalized non-severe dengue (non-SD) and (c) non-hospitalized non-SD. Statistical analyses were conducted to determine the association of endotoxin levels with hantavirus disease severity based on hospitalization and dengue disease severity. Serum endotoxin levels are associated with hantavirus disease severity and hospitalization and dengue disease severity (p < 0.01). Similar studies have found an association of serum endotoxin levels with dengue disease severity but never with hantavirus infection. Co-detection of hantavirus- and DENV-specific IgM in some patients were observed with elevated serum endotoxin levels. In addition, previous studies observed hantavirus replication in the gut of patients, gastrointestinal tract as a possible entry route of infection and evidence of microbial translocation and its impact on hantavirus disease severity. A significant correlation of serum endotoxin and hantavirus disease severity and hospitalization in hantavirus infected patients is reported for the first time ever. In addition, serum endotoxin levels correlated with dengue disease severity. This study adds further support to the role of endotoxin in both hantavirus and dengue virus infection and disease severity and its role as a possible therapeutic target for viral haemorrhagic fevers (VHFs).

The World Health Organization has advocated for sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes as part of a broader non-communicable disease prevention strategy, and these taxes have been recently introduced in a wide range of settings. However, much is still unknown about how SSB taxes operate in various contexts and as a result of different tax designs. In 2015, the Government of Barbados implemented a 10% ad valorem (value-based) tax on SSBs. It has been hypothesized that this tax structure may inadvertently encourage consumers to switch to cheaper sugary drinks. We aimed to assess whether and to what extent there has been a change in sales of SSBs following implementation of the SSB tax. We used electronic point of sale data from a major grocery store chain and applied an interrupted time series (ITS) design to assess grocery store SSB and non-SSB sales from January 2013 to October 2016. We controlled for the underlying time trend, seasonality, inflation, tourism and holidays. We conducted sensitivity analyses using a cross-country control (Trinidad and Tobago) and a within-country control (vinegar). We included a post-hoc stratification by price tertile to assess the extent to which consumers may switch to cheaper sugary drinks. We found that average weekly sales of SSBs decreased by 4.3% (95%CI 3.6 to 4.9%) compared to expected sales without a tax, primarily driven by a decrease in carbonated SSBs sales of 3.6% (95%CI 2.9 to 4.4%). Sales of non-SSBs increased by 5.2% (95%CI 4.5 to 5.9%), with bottled water sales increasing by an average of 7.5% (95%CI 6.5 to 8.3%). The sensitivity analyses were consistent with the uncontrolled results. After stratifying by price, we found evidence of substitution to cheaper SSBs. This study suggests that the Barbados SSB tax was associated with decreased sales of SSBs in a major grocery store chain after controlling for underlying trends. This finding was robust to sensitivity analyses. We found evidence to suggest that consumers may have changed their behaviour in response to the tax by purchasing cheaper sugary drinks, in addition to substituting to untaxed products. This has important implications for the design of future SSB taxes.

High sodium diets with inadequate potassium and high sodium-to-potassium ratios are a known determinant of hypertension and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The Caribbean island of Barbados has a high prevalence of hypertension and mortality from CVD. Our objectives were to estimate sodium and potassium excretion, to compare estimated levels with recommended intakes and to identify the main food sources of sodium in Barbadian adults. A sub-sample (n = 364; 25–64 years) was randomly selected from the representative population-based Health of the Nation cross-sectional study (n = 1234), in 2012–13. A single 24-h urine sample was collected from each participant, following a strictly applied protocol designed to reject incomplete samples, for the measurement of sodium and potassium excretion (in mg), which were used as proxy estimates of dietary intake. In addition, sensitivity analyses based on estimated completeness of urine collection from urine creatinine values were undertaken. Multiple linear regression was used to examine differences in sodium and potassium excretion, and the sodium-to-potassium ratio, by age, sex and educational level. Two 24-h recalls were used to identify the main dietary sources of sodium. All analyses were weighted for the survey design. Mean sodium excretion was 2656 (2488–2824) mg/day, with 67% (62–73%) exceeding the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended limit of 2000 mg/d. Mean potassium excretion was 1469 (1395–1542) mg/d; < 0.5% met recommended minimum intake levels. Mean sodium-to-potassium ratio was 2.0 (1.9–2.1); not one participant had a ratio that met WHO recommendations. Higher potassium intake and lower sodium-to-potassium ratio were independently associated with age and tertiary education. Sensitivity analyses based on urine creatinine values did not notably alter these findings. In this first nationally representative study with objective assessment of sodium and potassium excretion in a Caribbean population in over 20 years, levels of sodium intake were high, and potassium intake was low. Younger age and lower educational level were associated with the highest sodium-to-potassium ratios. These findings provide baseline values for planning future policy interventions for non-communicable disease prevention.

In 2007, the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) convened the world's first-ever heads of government summit on noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and issued the landmark Declaration of Port-of-Spain: Uniting to Stop the Epidemic of Chronic NCDs. Since then, ministry of health (MoH) focal points in each country have self-reported annually on their NCD efforts, using a 26-indicator grid created to assess implementation of the Declaration. Our objective was to assess the validity of those grid responses, as compared to information from in-depth interviews and document reviews. Seven national case studies on policy responses to the Declaration were undertaken in 2015. In-depth, semistructured interviews were conducted with stakeholders from multiple sectors, including the MoH. Policy documents were also identified and reviewed. The results from the 2015 case studies were compared to the 2014 MoH focal point grid responses. Kappa statistics evaluated chance agreement. The information from the grid and from the case studies agreed closely. Out of a total of 182 indicators (26 each for seven countries), there was a lack of agreement on just 9 (4.9%). All the differences were between policy statements and implementation. Except for physical activity, kappa statistics indicated that agreement was good to excellent for all the clusters of the grid and for the grid as a whole, but with wide confidence intervals. In general, the monitoring grid accurately assessed the national situation, but with a possible tendency to overstate performance in some areas. These findings contributed to the design of a new, 50-indicator monitoring grid in 2016. Alongside these improvements, CARICOM countries face a substantial burden from having to complete many other required NCD reports, mainly for the Pan American Health Organization and the World Health Organization.

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are a threat to social and economic development, including in the Caribbean. In 2007 the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) held the world's first-ever summit of heads of government on NCD prevention and control and issued the landmark Declaration of Port-of-Spain: Uniting to Stop the Epidemic of Chronic NCDs. The objectives of this paper are to provide an overview of a formal evaluation of the Declaration and to highlight key findings that could inform further implementation of the Declaration's 15 mandates. The evaluation's six research objectives were decided through stakeholder engagement and assessed by concurrent quantitative and qualitative research methods, using the following four themes: 1) trends in risk factors, morbidity, and mortality; 2) national and Caribbean-wide policy responses, and factors associated with policy successes and difficulties; 3) the international impact of the Declaration; and 4) the potential for raising revenue from tobacco and alcohol taxation in order to support NCD prevention and control. There are marked disparities in NCD mortality and trends among the 20 CARICOM member countries and territories. No CARICOM member had fully implemented all of the Declaration's 15 mandates (which were monitored by 26 indicators), with 10 CARICOM members implementing fewer than half of the indicators, and with most members lacking a well-functioning multisectoral NCD Commission. Larger CARICOM members tended to have higher levels of implementation than did smaller members. Mandates that received active support from regional institutions tended to be better implemented by the CARICOM members than did mandates that lacked that kind of support. Feasible national tobacco and alcohol tax increases could more than cover the cost of implementing the World Health Organization NCD "best buy" interventions in the CARICOM member countries and territories. Priorities for further implementation of the mandates from the Port-of-Spain Declaration include establishing throughout the CARICOM member countries and territories fully functioning national bodies to support multisectoral action for NCD prevention; greater regional support in policy development and implementation for smaller countries; and greater targeted use of taxes on tobacco and alcohol to support NCD control and prevention.

Like many nations in the Americas, the countries of the Caribbean are facing increasing morbidity and mortality associated with noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). In 2007, based on advocacy by Sir George Alleyne and others, the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) convened the first in the world Heads of Government NCDs Summit. This summit issued the Port of Spain Declaration that served not only as a rallying point to accelerate the regional NCDs response, but also as a catalyst for the first United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs in September 2011. In 2014, seven years after the CARICOM NCDs Summit, a formal evaluation of the Port of Spain Declaration (POSDEVAL) was conducted to investigate its impact and learn lessons to support and further accelerate its implementation. One mechanism was to review successes and challenges in the NCDs response and effectively communicate findings to stakeholders and the public. The results of the evaluation and the implementation of the Port of Spain Declaration are presented by other papers in this supplement. The present paper describes the communication and social information process used for sharing POSDEVAL findings across multiple layers of social influence in the Caribbean, primarily in 2016 - 2017. The main steps of the communication process are shared as a possible strategy for disseminating NCDs research information and accelerating control and policy adoption in other Small Island Developing States and middle-income countries.