Susan J. Mazer

Populations that have detectable additive genetic variance for fitness (V _A (W)) have the capacity for increase in their mean fitness through natural selection. The extent to which the magnitude of V _A (W) in wild populations is predictive of the rate of adaptation is not well known, because few empirical field-based studies have been designed to address this question. Here, we report a two-year field experiment with pedigreed seeds embedded in four natural populations of the annual wildflower Baby Blue Eyes ( Nemophila menziesii H. & A.), a species native to western North America. We first estimated V _A (W) in a parental generation and then evaluated whether that estimate accurately predicted the adaptive response observed in the subsequent offspring generation grown under natural field conditions. We achieved this by directly comparing the mean fitnesses of the parental generation and their progeny grown under the same environmental conditions. We detected V _A (W) and evidence of adaptation in all populations despite inter-annual differences in environmental conditions that directly affected fitness. Genotype-by-year interactions in fitness indicate that the fitness ranking of families differed between years, implying that the selective environment shifted over time. Additionally, although the environment in the second year reduced population mean fitness in three sites, the offspring generation maintained mean fitness at or above replacement, suggesting that adaptive evolution may have buffered the effects of environmental change. Overall, our results suggest that the four populations harbored sufficient V _A (W) for adaptation through natural selection to the environmental conditions observed during the two years of this study. Teaser Text: When does adaptive potential lead to adaptation? In this study of Baby Blue Eyes ( Nemophila menziesii) , we planted seeds of known parentage from four natural populations into their site of origin and, in the following year, sowed the same sibships alongside their offspring. We evaluated the potential for adaptation in each population and the extent to which it was realized in the offspring generation. For all populations, we detected a significant capacity for adaptive evolution, which was expressed in the second generation. In all populations, the combination of survivorship and offspring production was sufficient for population replacement (i.e., mean fitness ≥ 1). Genotype-by-year interactions among sire effects on fitness suggest that the selective environment differed between years. Our study provides evidence that wild populations in their home environment possess the capacity for adaptation due to natural selection over short time scales.

Darwin’s Naturalization Conundrum holds that both functional similarity and distinctiveness can facilitate biological invasions: invaders similar to natives may succeed through preadaptation to local abiotic conditions, whereas functionally distinct invaders may succeed by reducing competition. Yet the contexts in which either mechanism dominates are unclear. Prior research has primarily attributed variability in native–invasive differentiation to shifts in the balance between biotic and climatic barriers to invasion from local to regional scales. However, similarity and distinctiveness are frequent at both local and regional levels, indicating key drivers of native–invasive differentiation remain overlooked. Crucially, theory and evidence show that as climatic stress increases, competition weakens. This implies that harsh climates should favor invaders functionally similar to natives, whereas mesic climates should favor distinctiveness. However, this hypothesis has not been tested across climate regimes and functional traits. We addressed this gap by combining models of species distributions and flowering phenology for 2,810 species across the United States, estimating phylogenetic distance and phenological differentiation between natives and invasives relative to differentiation among co-occurring natives. In warm, humid regions, invasives flowered earlier, less synchronously, and were more distantly related to natives. In cold or dry regions, they flowered at similar or later times, more synchronously, and were more closely related than natives themselves. Across all climates, invasives consistently exhibited longer flowering durations, with little evidence of greater phenological plasticity. These findings reveal that Darwin’s Conundrum reflects a predictable continuum shaped by environmental context, highlighting climate as a key axis of invasion success.

Global change is altering the phenology and geographic ranges of flowering species, with potentially profound consequences for the timing and composition of floral resources and the seasonal structure of ecological communities. However, shifts in flowering phenology and species distributions have historically been studied in isolation due to disciplinary silos and limited data, leaving critical gaps in our understanding of their combined effects. To address this, we used millions of herbarium and occurrence records to model phenological and range shifts for 2837 plant species in the United States across historical, recent, and projected climate and land cover conditions, enabling us to scale responses from species to communities, and from local to continental geographies. Our analysis reveals that communities are shifting toward earlier, longer flowering seasons in most biomes, with co‐flowering species richness increasing at the edges of the season and declining at historical peaks—trends projected to intensify under ongoing environmental trends. Although range and phenology shifts operate concurrently, they predominantly affect different aspects of the flowering season: phenological changes primarily alter seasonality—its start, end, and duration—and co‐flowering diversity at the edges of the season, while range shifts more strongly influence co‐flowering species richness during historical seasonal peaks and the identity and degree of flowering synchrony among co‐occurring species pairs. Together, these results demonstrate that shifts in phenology and species ranges act synergistically to restructure the flowering seasons across the conterminous United States, revealing wide variation in the pace and direction of change among biomes.

Summary: Phenological response to global climate change can impact ecosystem functions. There are various data sources from which spatiotemporal and taxonomic phenological data may be obtained: mobilized herbaria, community science initiatives, observatory networks, and remote sensing. However, analyses conducted to date have generally relied on single sources of these data. Siloed treatment of data in analyses may be due to the lack of harmonization across different data sources that offer partially nonoverlapping information and are often complementary. Such treatment precludes a deeper understanding of phenological responses at varying macroecological scales. Here, we describe a detailed vision for the harmonization of phenological data, including the direct integration of disparate sources of phenological data using a common schema. Specifically, we highlight existing methods for data harmonization that can be applied to phenological data: data design patterns, metadata standards, and ontologies. We describe how harmonized data from multiple sources can be integrated into analyses using existing methods and discuss the use of automated extraction techniques. Data harmonization is not a new concept in ecology, but the harmonization of phenological data is overdue. We aim to highlight the need for better data harmonization, providing a roadmap for how harmonized phenological data may fill gaps while simultaneously being integrated into analyses.

Summary: Anthropogenetic climate change has caused range shifts among many species. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to predict how species ranges may change in the future. However, most SDMs rarely consider how climate‐sensitive traits, such as phenology, which affect individuals' demography and fitness, may influence species' ranges. Using > 120 000 herbarium specimens representing 360 plant species distributed across the eastern United States, we developed a novel ‘phenology‐informed’ SDM that integrates phenological responses to changing climates. We compared the ranges of each species forecast by the phenology‐informed SDM with those from conventional SDMs. We further validated the modeling approach using hindcasting. When examining the range changes of all species, our phenology‐informed SDMs forecast less species loss and turnover under climate change than conventional SDMs. These results suggest that dynamic phenological responses of species may help them adjust their ecological niches and persist in their habitats as the climate changes. Plant phenology can modulate species' responses to climate change, mitigating its negative effects on species persistence. Further application of our framework will contribute to a generalized understanding of how traits affect species distributions along environmental gradients and facilitate the use of trait‐based SDMs across spatial and taxonomic scales.

Phenology varies widely over space and time because of its sensitivity to climate. However, whether phenological variation is primarily generated by rapid organismal responses (plasticity) or local adaptation remains unresolved. Here we used 1,038,027 herbarium specimens representing 1,605 species from the continental United States to measure flowering-time sensitivity to temperature over time (S_time) and space (S_space). By comparing these estimates, we inferred how adaptation and plasticity historically influenced phenology along temperature gradients and how their contributions vary among species with different phenology and native climates and among ecoregions differing in species composition. Parameters S_space and S_time were positively correlated (r = 0.87), of similar magnitude and more frequently consistent with plasticity than adaptation. Apparent plasticity and adaptation generated earlier flowering in spring, limited responsiveness in late summer and delayed flowering in autumn in response to temperature increases. Nonetheless, ecoregions differed in the relative contributions of adaptation and plasticity, from consistently greater importance of plasticity (for example, southeastern United States plains) to their nearly equal importance throughout the season (for example, Western Sierra Madre Piedmont). Our results support the hypothesis that plasticity is the primary driver of flowering-time variation along temperature gradients, with local adaptation having a widespread but comparatively limited role.

Restricting seed collecting to local populations is a common practice in restoration because it is assumed that most plants are adapted to local environmental conditions. However, there is still considerable debate about whether local seed collection should be the default seed‐provenancing strategy as the effects of climate change are increasingly considered in restoration planning. It is especially important to explore whether local seed provenance is necessary for dominant species used in restoration because the success of these projects often rests on these species. Stipa pulchra is one such species that is commonly used in grassland restoration projects in California. To explore how different seed‐provenancing strategies affected the establishment and growth of S. pulchra, we established three common garden experiments distributed across a latitudinal gradient in California. We collected seeds from seven wild populations, germinated seeds in a common greenhouse, then planted all populations at the three common gardens. We assessed growth and reproduction for 2 years. We found limited evidence that restricting seed sourcing to local populations increased the establishment of S. pulchra compared to seeds from more distant populations. Instead, we found evidence to support the use of regional admixture seed sourcing to increase resiliency to environmental variation. In particular, we found being sourced from a dry location during the dry 2018 season was a benefit, highlighting the importance of including dry‐adapted populations to increase climate resilience. Our experiment highlights the importance of exploring multiple seed‐provenancing methods when designing a project to improve long‐term success.

Plants interact extensively with their neighbors, but the evolutionary consequences of variation in neighbor identity are not well understood. Seedling traits are likely to experience selection that depends on the identity of neighbors because they influence competitive outcomes. To explore this, we evaluated selection on seed mass and emergence time in two California grasses, the native perennial Stipa pulchra and the non-native annual Bromus diandrus, in the field with six other native and non-native neighbor grasses in single and mixed species treatments. We also quantified characteristics of each neighbor treatment to further investigate factors influencing their effects on fitness and phenotypic selection. Selection favored larger seeds in both focal species and this was largely independent of neighbor identity. Selection generally favored earlier emergence in both focal species, but neighbor identity influenced the strength and direction of selection on emergence time in S. pulchra but not B. diandrus. Greater light interception, higher soil moisture, and greater productivity of neighbors was associated with more intense selection for earlier emergence and larger seeds. Our findings suggest that changes in plant community composition can alter patterns of selection in seedling traits, and that these effects can be associated with measurable characteristics of the community.

Wild plant species provide excellent examples of qualitative traits that evolve in response to environmental challenges (e.g., flower color, heavy metal tolerance, cyanogenesis, and male sterility). In addition to such discrete characters, a dazzling array of continuously distributed, quantitative traits are expressed at every phase of the life cycle. These traits are known or suspected to have evolved by natural selection because they are heritable, differ among populations or closely related taxa occupying distinct habitats, and have individual phenotypes associated with survival and reproductive success. This special issue [American Journal of Botany 109(11)] focuses on the tools and approaches for detecting or inferring the ecological and genetic factors contributing to changes in genetically based variation of quantitative traits within or among populations, or causing their divergence among taxa. The assembled articles use one or more of three primary approaches to detect the process or outcome of natural selection on morphological, life history, reproductive, chemical, and physiological quantitative traits: the analysis of phenotypic or artificially imposed selection to detect direct and indirect selection on traits whose function is well‐understood; common garden experiments, including reciprocal transplants and “resurrection” experiments; and quantitative genetic analyses designed to detect and to estimate the environmental and genetic sources of phenotypic variation or to forecast short‐term evolutionary change. Together, these articles examine and reveal the adaptive capacity of quantitative traits and the genetically based constraints that may limit their directional evolutionary change, thereby informing and testing inferences, hypotheses, and predictions concerning the evolutionary trajectories of wild plant species.