Degui Li

This paper introduces a flexible time-varying network vector autoregressive model framework for large-scale time series. A latent group structure is imposed on the heterogeneous and node-specific time-varying momentum and network spillover effects so that the number of unknown time-varying coefficients to be estimated can be reduced considerably. A classic agglomerative clustering algorithm with nonparametrically estimated distance matrix is combined with a ratio criterion to consistently estimate the latent group number and membership. A postgrouping local linear smoothing method is proposed to estimate the group-specific time-varying momentum and network effects, substantially improving the convergence rates of the preliminary estimates which ignore the latent structure. We further modify the methodology and theory to allow for structural breaks in either the group membership, group number or group-specific coefficient functions. Numerical studies including Monte-Carlo simulation and an empirical application are presented to examine the finite-sample performance of the developed model and methodology.

This paper introduces a flexible time-varying network vector autoregressive model framework for large-scale time series. A latent group structure is imposed on the heterogeneous and node-specific time-varying momentum and network spillover effects so that the number of unknown time-varying coefficients to be estimated can be reduced considerably. A classic agglomerative clustering algorithm with nonparametrically estimated distance matrix is combined with a ratio criterion to consistently estimate the latent group number and membership. A postgrouping local linear smoothing method is proposed to estimate the group-specific time-varying momentum and network effects, substantially improving the convergence rates of the preliminary estimates which ignore the latent structure. We further modify the methodology and theory to allow for structural breaks in either the group membership, group number or group-specific coefficient functions. Numerical studies including Monte-Carlo simulation and an empirical application are presented to examine the finite-sample performance of the developed model and methodology.

We consider detecting and estimating breaks in heterogenous mean functions of high-dimensional functional time series which are allowed to be cross-sectionally correlated. A new test statistic combining the functional CUSUM statistic and power enhancement component is proposed with asymptotic null distribution comparable to the conventional CUSUM theory derived for a single functional time series. In particular, the extra power enhancement component enlarges the region where the proposed test has power, and results in stable power performance when breaks are sparse in the alternative hypothesis. Furthermore, we impose a latent group structure on the subjects with heterogenous break points and introduce an easy-to-implement clustering algorithm with an information criterion to consistently estimate the unknown group number and membership. The estimated group structure improves the convergence property of the break point estimate. Monte Carlo simulation studies and empirical applications show that the proposed estimation and testing techniques have satisfactory performance in finite samples.

We propose a new estimator of high-dimensional spot volatility matrices satisfying a low-rank plus sparse structure from noisy and asynchronous high-frequency data collected for an ultra-large number of assets. The noise processes are allowed to be temporally correlated, heteroskedastic, asymptotically vanishing and dependent on the efficient prices. We define a kernel-weighted pre-averaging method to jointly tackle the microstructure noise and asynchronicity issues, and we obtain uniformly consistent estimates for latent prices. We impose a continuous-time factor model with time-varying factor loadings on the price processes, and estimate the common factors and loadings via a local principal component analysis. Assuming a uniform sparsity condition on the idiosyncratic volatility structure, we combine the POET and kernel-smoothing techniques to estimate the spot volatility matrices for both the latent prices and idiosyncratic errors. Under some mild restrictions, the estimated spot volatility matrices are shown to be uniformly consistent under various matrix norms. We provide Monte-Carlo simulation and empirical studies to examine the numerical performance of the developed estimation methodology.

We study a functional version of nonstationary fractionally integrated time series, covering the functional unit root as a special case. The time series taking values in an infinite-dimensional separable Hilbert space are projected onto a finite number of sub-spaces, the level of nonstationarity allowed to vary over them. Under regularity conditions, we derive a weak convergence result for the projection of the fractionally integrated functional process onto the asymptotically dominant sub-space, which retains most of the sample information carried by the original functional time series. Through the classic functional principal component analysis of the sample variance operator, we obtain the eigenvalues and eigenfunctions which span a sample version of the dominant sub-space. Furthermore, we introduce a simple ratio criterion to consistently estimate the dimension of the dominant sub-space, and use a semiparametric local Whittle method to estimate the memory parameter. Monte-Carlo simulation studies are given to examine the finite-sample performance of the developed techniques.

This paper explores the homogeneity of coefficient functions in nonlinear models with functional coefficients and identifies the underlying semiparametric modelling structure. With initial kernel estimates, we combine the classic hierarchical clustering method with a generalised version of the information criterion to estimate the number of clusters, each of which has a common functional coefficient, and determine the membership of each cluster. To identify a possible semi-varying coefficient modelling framework, we further introduce a penalised local least squares method to determine zero coefficients, non-zero constant coefficients and functional coefficients which vary with an index variable. Through the nonparametric kernel-based cluster analysis and the penalised approach, we can substantially reduce the number of unknown parametric and nonparametric components in the models, thereby achieving the aim of dimension reduction. Under some regularity conditions, we establish the asymptotic properties for the proposed methods including the consistency of the homogeneity pursuit. Numerical studies, including Monte-Carlo experiments and two empirical applications, are given to demonstrate the finite-sample performance of our methods.

This article studies stationary functional time series with long‐range dependence, and estimates the memory parameter involved. Semiparametric local Whittle estimation is used, where periodogram is constructed from the approximate first score, which is an inner product of the functional observation and estimated leading eigenfunction. The latter is obtained via classical functional principal component analysis. Under the restrictive condition of constancy of the memory parameter over the function support, and other conditions which include rather unprimitive ones on the first score, the estimate is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal with asymptotic variance free of any unknown parameter, facilitating inference, as in the scalar time series case. Although the primary interest lies in long‐range dependence, our methods and theory are relevant to short‐range dependent or negative dependent functional time series. A Monte Carlo study of finite sample performance and an empirical example are included.