Ziding Feng

The biomarkers alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and protein induced by vitamin K absence/antagonist-II (PIVKA-II) may be useful for detecting early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We evaluated the performance of AFP and PIVKA-II levels, alone and in combination with clinical factors, for the early detection of HCC. In a case–control study, serum AFP and PIVKA-II were measured using the ARCHITECT immunoassay analyzer system in a cohort of 119 patients with HCC, 215 patients with non-malignant liver disease, and 34 healthy subjects. Five predictive models for detecting HCC were developed based on age, gender, AFP, and/or PIVKA-II levels; the best model was validated in an independent cohort of 416 patients with HCC and 412 control subjects with cirrhosis. In both cohorts, AFP and PIVKA-II concentrations were higher in patients with HCC compared to healthy controls and patients with non-malignant liver disease. The model that combined AFP and PIVKA-II, age, and gender had the highest AUC of 0.95 (0.95, 95% CI 0.93–0.98), with a sensitivity of 93% and a specificity of 84% in the development cohort, and an AUC of 0.87 (95% CI 0.85–0.90), sensitivity of 74%, and specificity of 85% in the validation cohort. When limiting the validation cohort to only early-stage HCC, the AUC was 0.85 (95% CI 0.81–0.88), sensitivity was 70%, and specificity was 86%. Compared to each biomarker alone, the combination of AFP and PIVKA-II with age and gender improved the accuracy of detecting HCC and differentiating HCC from non-malignant liver disease.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has limited treatment options in patients with advanced stage disease and early detection of HCC through surveillance programs is a key component towards reducing mortality. The current practice guidelines recommend that high-risk cirrhosis patients are screened every six months with ultrasonography but these are done in local hospitals with variable quality leading to disagreement about the benefit of HCC surveillance. The well-established diagnostic biomarker α-Fetoprotein (AFP) is used widely in screening but the reported performance varies widely across studies. We evaluate two biomarker screening approaches, a six-month risk prediction model and a parametric empirical Bayes (PEB) algorithm, in terms of their ability to improve the likelihood of early detection of HCC compared to current AFP alone when applied prospectively in a future study. We used electronic medical records from the Department of Veterans Affairs Hepatitis C Clinical Case Registry to construct our analysis cohort, which consists of serial AFP tests in 11,222 cirrhosis control patients and 902 HCC cases prior to their HCC diagnosis. The six-month risk prediction model incorporates routinely measured laboratory tests, age, the rate of change in AFP over the past year with the current AFP. The PEB algorithm incorporates prior AFP screening values to identify patients with a significant elevated level of AFP at their current screen. We split the analysis cohort into independent training and validation datasets. All model fitting and parameter estimation was performed using the training data and the algorithm performance was assessed by applying each approach to patients in the validation dataset. When the screening-level false positive rate was set at 10%, the patient-level true positive rate using current AFP alone was 53.88% while the patient-level true positive rate for the six-month risk prediction model was 58.09% (4.21% increase) and PEB approach was 63.64% (9.76% increase). Both screening approaches identify a greater proportion of HCC cases earlier than using AFP alone. The two approaches show greater potential to improve early detection of HCC compared to using the current AFP only and are worthy of further study.

Identifying the subset of patients with clinically localized prostate cancer (PCa) at the highest risk of recurrence remains challenging, and better prognostic markers are needed. Gleason score is the best predictor of PCa aggressiveness and prognosis. In the present study, we generated an epigenetic signature based on high versus low Gleason score tumors and evaluated its ability to predict recurrence after radical prostatectomy. Genome-wide DNA methylation data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA; no. of patients = 333) and the elastic net method were used to generate an epigenetic signature by contrasting patients with high (8–10) versus low (≤6) Gleason score tumors. The signature was then tested in a cohort of 523 patients with clinically localized disease who had radical prostatectomy. Samples taken from the primary tumor were used for DNA methylation and mRNA expression profiling. Patients were followed for PCa recurrence on average for 8 years after diagnosis. The epigenetic signature includes 52 differentially methylated CpG sites. In the testing cohort, the signature was associated with poorer recurrence-free survival (hazard ratio per 25 % increase = 1.78; 95 % confidence interval 1.48, 2.16). The signature significantly improved the area under the curve (AUC) for PCa recurrence compared to clinical-pathological parameters alone, particularly among patients diagnosed with Gleason score 7 tumors (0.64 vs. 0.76, P = 1.34E−4). Results were comparable for patients with Gleason 3 + 4 and those with 4 + 3 tumors. Gene Set Enrichment Analysis showed that higher levels of the signature were associated with increased expression of genes related to cell cycle proliferation and decreased expression of androgen-responsive genes. This report shows evidence that DNA methylation patterns measured in prostate tumor cells are predictive of PCa aggressiveness. The epigenetic signature may have clinical utility to improve prognostication particularly in patients with intermediate Gleason score 7 tumors.