Gerald Norman Flerchinger

The Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW) and Critical Zone Observatory (CZO), located south of the western Snake River Plain in the Intermountain West of the United States, is the site of over 60 years of research aimed at understanding integrated earth processes in a semi‐arid climate to aid sustainable use of environmental resources. Meteoric water lines (MWLs) are used to interpret hydrologic processes, though equilibrium and nonequilibrium processes affect the linear function and can reveal seasonal and climatological effects, necessitating the development of local meteoric water lines (LMWLs). At RCEW‐CZO, an RCEW LMWL was developed using non‐volume‐weighted, orthogonal regression with assumed error in both predictor and response variables from several years of precipitation (2015, 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2021) primarily at three different elevations (1203, 1585, and 2043 m). As most precipitation is evaporated or intercepted by vegetation in the driest months, an RCEW LMWL for groundwater recharge (RCEW LMWL‐GWR) was also developed using precipitation from the wettest months (November through April). The RCEW LMWL (δ ² H = 7.41 × δ ¹⁸ O – 3.09) is different from the RCEW LMWL‐GWR (δ ² H = 8.21 × δ ¹⁸ O + 9.95) and compares favorably to other LMWLs developed for the region and climate. Comparative surface, spring, and subsurface water datasets within the RCEW‐CZO are more similar to precipitation during the wettest months than dry months, illustrating that some semi‐arid hydrologic systems may most appropriately be compared to MWLs developed from precipitation only from the wettest season.

Soil moisture and evapotranspiration (ET) are important components of boreal forest hydrology that affect ecological processes and land‐atmosphere feedbacks. Future trends in soil moisture in particular are uncertain. Therefore, accurate modeling of these dynamics and understanding of concomitant sources of uncertainty are critical. Here, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo parameterization, and analysis of parameter uncertainty and its contribution to future soil moisture and ET uncertainty using a physically based ecohydrologic model in multiple boreal forest types. Soil and plant hydraulic parameters and LAI have the largest effects on simulated summer soil moisture at two contrasting sites. In future scenario simulations, the selection of parameters and global climate model (GCM) choice between two GCMs influence projected changes in soil moisture and ET about as much as the projected effects of climate change in the less sensitive GCM with a late‐century, high‐emissions scenario, though the relative effects of parameters, GCM, and climate vary among hydrologic variables and study sites. Saturated volumetric water content and sensitivity of stomatal conductance to vapor pressure deficit have the most statistically significant effects on change in ET and soil moisture, though there is considerable variability between sites and GCMs. The results of this study provide estimates of: (a) parameter importance and statistical significance for soil moisture modeling, (b) parameter values for physically based soil‐vegetation‐atmosphere transfer models in multiple boreal forest types, and (c) the contributions of uncertainty in these parameters to soil moisture and ET uncertainty in future climates.