Joe Premier

Context: Land use change is a major threat to the persistence of wildlife in human-dominated landscapes, making the knowledge of the amount and spatial configuration of suitable habitat essential for conservation. The European wildcat ( Felis silvestris ) currently persists in fragmented populations and faces ever increasing human pressure. Objectives: We modeled and mapped suitable wildcat habitats at the continental scale, to identify opportunities and constraints for its conservation. Methods: We compiled a large telemetry dataset comprising 200 wildcats across Europe and developed multi-scale habitat suitability models using Maxent. Habitat selection was analyzed at two hierarchical levels: home-range placement within the wider landscape and selection within the established home ranges. Results: At both levels, wildcats selected broadleaved forests, mixed forests, and grasslands, while avoiding landscapes dominated by large continuous forests. For home-range placement, they preferred lower terrain ruggedness and less intensive agriculture. Within the home ranges, wildcats selected forest edges and small woody features. Conclusions: Our results highlight the importance of heterogeneous forest–grassland mosaics habitats. More than half of the predicted suitable habitat occurred outside protected areas, highlighting the need for effective conservation strategies beyond their borders. Predictions of suitable areas should, however, be interpreted cautiously in regions where environmental conditions extend beyond those represented in the calibration data. By providing the first continental-scale habitat suitability map based on a large European telemetry dataset, our study offers a spatial foundation for identifying conservation priorities and supporting the long-term connectivity and recovery of wildcat populations.

Introduction: Apex predators exert top‐down pressure on food webs that can shape ecosystem dynamics, while also holding symbolic and utilitarian value for human communities. As human impacts increase, understanding these ecological and societal roles becomes increasingly important for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management. Hypothesis: Among apex predators, the Eurasian lynx ( Lynx lynx ; hereafter “lynx”) stands out for its relatively low conflict potential and broad public acceptance. Tolerance of lynx could maintain or help restore ecosystem processes in increasingly human‐modified landscapes. Far‐reaching ecological functions are frequently documented for large carnivores and often postulated for the lynx, yet the evidence base has never been systematically compiled. Methods: We synthesised research on the ecological and socioeconomic impacts of the lynx to evaluate its role in contemporary ecosystems. Given the few studies available, we qualitatively assessed the ecological effects of lynx, including trophic interactions and symbolic roles. Discussion: Lynx influence prey and mesopredator populations both consumptively and non‐consumptively, though consumptive trophic cascades were observed only in northern regions, and non‐consumptive trophic cascades only at fine timescales when perceived predation risk was elevated. Socioeconomic research has focused mainly on burdens associated with lynx, that is, “disservices”, like livestock predation, with less attention to potential benefits, like herbivore limitation in silviculture, that may constitute ecosystem services. Lynx hold intrinsic value for most people but their assumed roles as flagship or umbrella species, remain weakly evidenced and for some stakeholders the lynx may have a counter‐role. Conclusions: We conclude that the lynx's ecological and societal importance likely exceeds current literature, but key assumptions about its ecosystem functions remain insufficiently tested. We urge interdisciplinary research leveraging ongoing translocations and ecological gradients, including Asia, to test lynx effects and clarify their full contribution to ecosystem functioning and biodiversity in the Anthropocene.

Our understanding of the ecological factors and species-environment interactions driving reproduction in wildlife populations is limited. Collecting reproductive data across environmental gradients at the distribution range is particularly challenging in mammalian carnivores, though necessary to understand how environment and reproductive parameters interact. We explore the effects of environmental conditions on the reproduction of the European wildcat ( Felis silvestris ). By combining multiple survey methods we gathered a unique large-scale dataset of reproductive data across Europe. We assessed litter size, birth timing, birth synchrony, and reproductive rates of wildcats and determined the influence of anthropogenic, climatic and habitat factors on these reproductive parameters. Wildcat litter size ranged between one and six kittens with an average of 2.09 (± 1.30 SD). Litter size estimates varied substantially across survey methods. No significant effects of environmental or anthropogenic variables on litter size were detected. Female wildcats exhibited a long reproductive season, with births occurring between March and October with two distinct peaks in late April and August. Females at high elevation gave birth later and with higher synchrony but the effects of elevation and latitude could not be disentangled. Female reproductive rate -proportion of females reproducing- estimated from 14 females in a forested area of the Central European population was 0.79. Our study provides key reproductive parameters of wildcats. Our results are essential to plan and inform species-specific conservation actions and to improve our understanding of wildcat population dynamics. This study highlights the importance of international research networks to advance species research and conservation.

Effective conservation depends on demographic metrics that reliably reflect species status, particularly population abundance. For elusive species occurring at low densities, however, such metrics remain difficult to obtain. Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models are the standardized approach for estimating density in marked populations, but their data requirements, especially the need for multiple spatial recaptures across individuals, often limit applicability in small or data-poor populations. This constraint has resulted in knowledge gaps for some of the most vulnerable species, undermining evidence-based conservation planning and management. Using camera-trap data and SCR-derived density estimates from data-rich populations, we evaluated alternative, less data-demanding metrics and tested the hypothesis: Space to Event (STE), Mean Local Abundance (MLA), and Relative Abundance Index (RAI) exhibit predictable relationships with SCR-derived density; if supported, these metrics can reliably estimate density in populations where SCR models cannot be implemented. We applied this framework to the European wildcat ( Felis silvestris ), an elusive small felid with highly fragmented populations across Europe, for which density estimates are largely lacking despite growing conservation concern. Across 21 study areas spanning most of the species’ range, our results indicate that European wildcats generally occur at lower densities than previously reported. SCR-derived estimates (n=10) averaged 10.32 ± 11.56 inds/100km ² , while STE enabled density estimation in five additional data-poor areas (mean 5.52 ± 5.33 inds/100km ² ). STE showed a strong linear relationship with SCR-derived density (R ² =0.98), supporting its use as a viable alternative when SCR is infeasible, although it tended to underestimate compared to SCR, especially at higher densities. In contrast, MLA and RAI showed weaker and non-linear relationships with SCR-derived density (R ² =0.65), indicating substantially lower explanatory power and suggesting their estimates are more strongly influenced by confounding processes. By explicitly calibrating alternative metrics across a wide density gradient throughout most of the species’ distribution, this study provides a transferable methodological framework for estimating density in low-density wildlife populations and the first continent-wide, standardized density assessment of a carnivore species. From a management perspective, our findings identify populations that may be most vulnerable, particularly those with the lowest densities, and highlight the need to prioritize absolute abundance monitoring.

Reproductive lifespan and age-specific reproductive performance are key life-history traits, shaping individual fitness and population dynamics. Here, we examine age-specific variation in reproductive success in a wild large carnivore, the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), using 38 years of longitudinal data from 173 known-age females across Europe and western Asia. Female lynx exhibited age-related reproductive patterns: (i) breeding probability increased with age before declining at older ages, (ii) litter size remained generally stable at two kittens, although it declined to one kitten in older mothers at northern latitudes, and (iii) offspring survival peaked at intermediate female ages, with variation across individuals, years and latitudes. These patterns likely reflect physiological maturation and increased experience (ages 2 to 8), followed by declines due to reproductive and maternal effect senescence in older females. Temporal and latitudinal variations suggest that environmental conditions shape reproductive patterns in Eurasian lynx, with senescence particularly pronounced in resource-scarce environments. Our findings enhance the understanding of age-related reproductive patterns in carnivores across environmental contexts, contributing to life-history theory and improving evidence-based management by accounting for age structure in population forecasting.

Translocations and reintroductions aim to improve the viability of isolated populations and promote connectivity for large carnivores. However, there is no established framework for assessing their success. We used the Eurasian lynx ( Lynx lynx ) in western and central Europe to assess the impact of translocations on the viability of six populations and their interconnectivity. Lynx populations are small and isolated and have low genetic diversity. Population reinforcements have been carried out, but their impact has not been determined. We devised a workflow to evaluate how releasing new individuals affects population extinction probability and connectivity and patch colonization, and to estimate the minimum release population to create a stepping‐stone network. To this end, we calibrated a spatially explicit, individual‐based model with space use, survival, and reproductive rates observed in the populations and validated it with field data on population growth and expansion from the 1970s to 2020. We ran the model with the observed population structure in 1995−1996 to 2040 in two scenarios, with and without translocations. In both scenarios, most existing populations remained stable in our model for the next 20 years, but had low connectivity. Lynx translocations positively affected viability and connectivity on a population scale but did not increase connectivity between the eastern and western Alps. To create a stepping‐stone population that would significantly improve connectivity across the Alps, we conservatively estimated that at least 13 males and 37 females should be released in the Italian southeastern Alps based on the assumption of negligible immigration rates between patches. Concerted transboundary management to improve the future survival of lynx populations in western and central Europe is still needed.

Extra-territorial mating excursions (i.e. short-term movements beyond established home ranges to seek mating opportunities) represent an underexplored reproductive strategy in felids. Using telemetry data from 125 Eurasian lynx (172 lynx-years, 1995–2023) across Europe, we investigated sex-specific spatio-temporal patterns and drivers of these excursions during the mating season. Overall, 33% of males and 11% of females undertook excursions, with males having higher rates than females. Male excursions mostly occurred in March, coinciding with the peak of the conception period, while females tended to undertake excursions either before or after this peak. The median Euclidean distance travelled beyond the home range was 6.8 km for males and 2.6 km for females, with corresponding median durations of 119 h and 85 h, respectively. Translocated individuals exhibited higher excursion rates than those in established populations, suggesting mate-searching in novel environments. We found no evidence that human influences affected excursion rates or distances. Our findings highlight a mating tactic that is often overlooked and provide new insight into sex-specific and context-dependent movement strategies in Eurasian lynx. By linking extra-territorial excursions to reproduction patterns, our study informs future research on mate-searching behaviour in felids and offers implications for conservation planning, particularly in isolated or reintroduced populations.