Frank Mousset

Let $X$ be the number of $k$-term arithmetic progressions contained in the $p$-biased random subset of the first $N$ positive integers. We give asymptotically sharp estimates on the logarithmic upper-tail probability $\log \Pr(X \ge E[X] + t)$ for all $Ω(N^{-2/k}) \le p \ll 1$ and all $t \gg \sqrt{Var(X)}$, excluding only a few boundary cases. In particular, we show that the space of parameters $(p,t)$ is partitioned into three phenomenologically distinct regions, where the upper-tail probabilities either resemble those of Gaussian or Poisson random variables, or are naturally described by the probability of appearance of a small set that contains nearly all of the excess $t$ progressions. We employ a variety of tools from probability theory, including classical tilting arguments and martingale concentration inequalities. However, the main technical innovation is a combinatorial result that establishes a stronger version of `entropic stability' for sets with rich arithmetic structure.

Let $k$ and $\ell$ be positive integers. We prove that if $1 \leq \ell \leq o_k(k^{6/5})$, then in every large enough graph $G$, the fraction of $k$-vertex subsets that induce exactly $\ell$ edges is at most $1/e + o_k(1)$. Together with a recent result of Kwan, Sudakov, and Tran, this settles a conjecture of Alon, Hefetz, Krivelevich, and Tyomkyn.

Suppose that $X$ is a bounded-degree polynomial with nonnegative coefficients on the $p$-biased discrete hypercube. Our main result gives sharp estimates on the logarithmic upper tail probability of $X$ whenever an associated extremal problem satisfies a certain entropic stability property. We apply this result to solve two long-standing open problems in probabilistic combinatorics: the upper tail problem for the number of arithmetic progressions of a fixed length in the $p$-random subset of the integers and the upper tail problem for the number of cliques of a fixed size in the random graph $G_{n,p}$. We also make significant progress on the upper tail problem for the number of copies of a fixed regular graph $H$ in $G_{n,p}$. To accommodate readers who are interested in learning the basic method, we include a short, self-contained solution to the upper tail problem for the number of triangles in $G_{n,p}$ for all $p=p(n)$ satisfying $n^{-1}\log n\ll p \ll 1$.

For fixed graphs $F_1,\dotsc,F_r$, we prove an upper bound on the threshold function for the property that $G(n,p) \to (F_1,\dotsc,F_r)$. This establishes the $1$-statement of a conjecture of Kohayakawa and Kreuter.

Given a hypergraph $\Gamma=(\Omega,\mathcal{X})$ and a sequence $\mathbf{p} = (p_\omega)_{\omega\in \Omega}$ of values in $(0,1)$, let $\Omega_{\mathbf{p}}$ be the random subset of $\Omega$ obtained by keeping every vertex $\omega$ independently with probability $p_\omega$. We investigate the general question of deriving fine (asymptotic) estimates for the probability that $\Omega_{\mathbf{p}}$ is an independent set in $\Gamma$, which is an omnipresent problem in probabilistic combinatorics. Our main result provides a sequence of upper and lower bounds on this probability, each of which can be evaluated explicitly in terms of the joint cumulants of small sets of edge indicator random variables. Under certain natural conditions, these upper and lower bounds coincide asymptotically, thus giving the precise asymptotics of the probability in question. We demonstrate the applicability of our results with two concrete examples: subgraph containment in random (hyper)graphs and arithmetic progressions in random subsets of the integers.

The minrank of a graph $G$ on the set of vertices $[n]$ over a field $\mathbb{F}$ is the minimum possible rank of a matrix $M\in\mathbb{F}^{n\times n}$ with nonzero diagonal entries such that $M_{i,j}=0$ whenever $i$ and $j$ are distinct nonadjacent vertices of $G$. This notion, over the real field, arises in the study of the Lov\'asz theta function of a graph. We obtain tight bounds for the typical minrank of the binomial random graph $G(n,p)$ over any finite or infinite field, showing that for every field $\mathbb{F}=\mathbb F(n)$ and every $p=p(n)$ satisfying $n^{-1} \leq p \leq 1-n^{-0.99}$, the minrank of $G=G(n,p)$ over $\mathbb{F}$ is $\Theta(\frac{n \log (1/p)}{\log n})$ with high probability. The result for the real field settles a problem raised by Knuth in 1994. The proof combines a recent argument of Golovnev, Regev, and Weinstein, who proved the above result for finite fields of size at most $n^{O(1)}$, with tools from linear algebra, including an estimate of R\'onyai, Babai, and Ganapathy for the number of zero-patterns of a sequence of polynomials.

In 1995, Erd\H{o}s and Gy\'arf\'as proved that in every $2$-colouring of the edges of $K_n$, there is a vertex cover by $2\sqrt{n}$ monochromatic paths of the same colour, which is optimal up to a constant factor. The main goal of this paper is to study the natural multi-colour generalization of this problem: given two positive integers $r,s$, what is the smallest number $\text{pc}_{r,s}(K_n)$ such that in every colouring of the edges of $K_n$ with $r$ colours, there exists a vertex cover of $K_n$ by $\text{pc}_{r,s}(K_n)$ monochromatic paths using altogether at most $s$ different colours? For fixed integers $r>s$ and as $n\to\infty$, we prove that $\text{pc}_{r,s}(K_n) = \Theta(n^{1/\chi})$, where $\chi=\max{\{1,2+2s-r\}}$ is the chromatic number of the Kneser gr aph $\text{KG}(r,r-s)$. More generally, if one replaces $K_n$ by an arbitrary $n$-vertex graph with fixed independence number $\alpha$, then we have $\text{pc}_{r,s}(G) = O(n^{1/\chi})$, where this time around $\chi$ is the chromatic number of the Kneser hypergraph $\text{KG}^{(\alpha+1)}(r,r-s)$. This result is tight in the sense that there exist graphs with independence number $\alpha$ for which $\text{pc}_{r,s}(G) = \Omega(n^{1/\chi})$. This is in sharp contrast to the case $r=s$, where it follows from a result of S\'ark\"ozy (2012) that $\text{pc}_{r,r}(G)$ depends only on $r$ and $\alpha$, but not on the number of vertices. We obtain similar results for the situation where instead of using paths, one wants to cover a graph with bounded independence number by monochromatic cycles, or a complete graph by monochromatic $d$-regular graphs.

In 1995, Erdös and Gyárfás proved that in every $2$-colouring of the edges of $K_n$, there is a vertex cover by $2\sqrt{n}$ monochromatic paths of the same colour, which is optimal up to a constant factor. The main goal of this paper is to study the natural multi-colour generalization of this problem: given two positive integers $r,s$, what is the smallest number $pc_{r,s}(K_n)$ such that in every colouring of the edges of $K_n$ with $r$ colours, there exists a vertex cover of $K_n$ by $pc_{r,s}(K_n)$ monochromatic paths using altogether at most $s$ different colours?For fixed integers $r>s$ and as $n\to\infty$, we prove that $pc_{r,s}(K_n) = \Theta(n^{1/\chi})$, where $\chi=\max{\{1,2+2s-r\}}$ is the chromatic number of the Kneser graph $KG(r,r-s)$. More generally, if one replaces $K_n$ by an arbitrary $n$-vertex graph with fixed independence number $\alpha$, then we have $pc_{r,s}(G) = O(n^{1/\chi})$, where this time around $\chi$ is the chromatic number of the Kneser hypergraph $KG^{(\alpha+1)}(r,r-s)$. This result is tight in the sense that there exist graphs with independence number $\alpha$ for which $pc_{r,s}(G) = \Omega(n^{1/\chi})$. This is in sharp contrast to the case $r=s$, where it follows from a result of Sárközy (2012) that $pc_{r,r}(G)$ depends only on $r$ and $\alpha$, but not on the number of vertices.We obtain similar results for the situation where instead of using paths, one wants to cover a graph with bounded independence number by monochromatic cycles, or a complete graph by monochromatic $d$-regular graphs.