Ning Wang

Background: Great achievements have been achieved by free antiretroviral therapy (ART). A rapid and accurate prediction of survival in people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) is needed for effective management. We aimed to establish an effective prognostic model to forecast the survival of PLHIV after ART.Methods: The participants were enrolled from a follow-up cohort over 2003-2019 in Nanjing AIDS Prevention and Control Information System. A nested case-control study was employed with HIV-related death, and a propensity-score matching (PSM) approach was applied in a ratio of 1:4 to allocate the patients. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses were performed based on the training set to determine the risk factors. The discrimination was qualified using the area under the curve (AUC) and concordance index (C-Index). The nomogram was calibrated using the calibration curve. The clinical benefit of prognostic nomogram was assessed by decision curve analysis (DCA).Results: Predictive factors including CD4 cell count (CD4), body mass index (BMI) and hemoglobin (HB) were determined and incorporated into the nomogram. In the training set, AUC and C-index (95% CI) were 0.831 and 0.798 (0.758, 0.839), respectively. The validation set revealed a good discrimination with an AUC of 0.802 and a C-index (95% CI) of 0.786 (0.681, 0.892). The calibration curve also exhibited a high consistency in the predictive power (especially in the first 3 years after ART initiation) of the nomogram. Moreover, DCA demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically beneficial.Conclusion: The nomogram is effective and accurate in forecasting the survival of PLHIV, and beneficial for medical workers in health administration.

Human pegivirus 2 (HPgV-2) is a recently recognized pegivirus of the family Flaviviridae. To investigate the epidemic features of HPgV-2 circulating in the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected population, we tested for antibodies and viral RNA of HPgV-2 and hepatitis C virus (HCV) with retrospective plasma samples collected from 771 HIV infections with multiple risk behaviors in Honghe Prefecture of Yunnan Province. A total of 195 subjects (25.29%) were seroreactive to HPgV-2, and 41 (5.32%) were RNA positive. Although the positive rate of HPgV-2 antibodies in HIV/HCV-coinfected individuals (27.69%) was significantly higher than that of HIV monoinfections (20.82%) (p = 0.036), this is the first report of HPgV-2 viremia in HIV-infected individuals without HCV infection and the presence of two HPgV-2 lineages in China. Our data indicate that HPgV-2 can also be transmitted sexually, which might be facilitated when combined with HCV infection, injecting drug use, and risky sexual behavior, which appear to have a synergistic effect on HPgV-2 infection. Phylogenetic analysis of 26 near-full-length genome sequences showed that the HPgV-2 strains in China are divided into two clusters.

The widespread use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has led to considerable concerns about the prevalence of transmitted drug resistance (TDR). Sexual contact, particularly men who have sex with men (MSM) was the most prevalent form of HIV transmission in Shijiazhuang. Hence, we conducted an epidemiological surveillance study on TDR among newly diagnosed individuals who infected-HIV through sexual contact in from 2014–2015. Genotypic resistance mutations were defined using the WHO-2009 surveillance list. Potential impact on antiretroviral drug was predicted according to the Stanford HIV db program version 7.0. The role of transmission clusters in drug resistant strains was evaluated by phylogenetic and network analyses. In this study, 589 individuals were recruited and 542 samples were amplified and sequenced successfully. The over prevalence of TDR was 6.1%: 1.8% to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), 2.0% to non- NRTIs (NNRTIs) and 2.4% to protease inhibitors (PIs), respectively. We did not find significant differences in the TDR prevalence by demographic and clinical characteristics (p > 0.05). Using network and phylogenetic analysis, almost 60.0% sequences were clustered together. Of these clusters, 2 included at least two individuals carrying the same resistance mutation, accounting for 21.2% (7/33) individuals with TDR. No significant difference was observed in the clustering rate between the individuals with and without TDR. We obtained a moderate level TDR rate in studied region. These findings enhance our understanding of HIV-1 drug resistance prevalence in Shijiazhuang, and may be helpful for the comprehensive prevention and control of HIV-1.

Condom use and antiretroviral therapy (ART) are effective means to prevent and control HIV transmission. We aimed to assess the effect of condom use in combination with antiretroviral therapy (ART) on HIV incidence and mortality among men who had sex with men (MSM) in Beijing, China. We evaluated the effect of condom use, ART, and the combination of both among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) of MSM in the Chaoyang District of Beijing using the Asian Epidemic Model (AEM). Evaluation indicators included absolute risk reduction (ARR) and the percentage of relative risk reduction (RRR %). HIV incidence and prevalence declined substantially when condoms were used by MSM in Chaoyang from 2003 to 2013. The ARR of HIV incidence was from 0 to 0.91% and the RRR% was from 0 to 43.93%. The ARR of HIV prevalence was from 0 to 3.79% and the RRR% was from 0 to 31.53%. The HIV mortality rate decreased substantially (ARR from 0 to 1.75%, and RRR% from 0 to 40.03%) when ART was implemented. When condom use combined with ART was implemented in MSM in 2003–2013, HIV incidence declined substantially (ARR from 0 to 0.99%, and RRR% from 0 to 46.11%). HIV prevalence was also reduced with an ARR from 0 to 3.5%, and an RRR% from 0 to 29.88%. The HIV mortality also declined substantially (ARR from − 0.01% to 1.02%, RRR% from − 1.44% to 39.98%). Among MSM, a combination of condom use and ART reduces both HIV incidence and mortality caused by HIV. Combining these methods results in a more effective prevention and control of HIV.

To the Editor—Ma and collaborators [ 1] recently reported that at the end of 2015 in China, 65% of persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (PLWH) receiving highly antiretroviral therapy (HAART) were virally suppressed, and after adjustment for those without viral load (VL) testing, the proportion suppressed increased to 89%. This showed that there was a great deficit in VL testing for PLWH receiving HAART in China.

HIV testing is the first step to the fulfillment of Treat as Prevention (TasP) and reaching the 90-90-90 goal in HIV control. However, there are still a large number of Men who have Sex with Men (MSM) have never been tested for HIV before, and little is known about the HIV incidence and care linkage among this population. A Mixed method was used to recruit MSM who had never tested for HIV before from January 2012 to December 2014 in Shenyang, China. Potential MSM participants were invited to attend the enrollment for HIV and syphilis testing at a general hospital-based voluntary counseling and test (VCT). HIV confirmed positive subjects were further tested by BED HIV-1 capture enzyme immunoassay (BED-CEIA) to determine the HIV incidence. Syphilis was screened by the rapid plasma reagent test (RPR) and confirmed by Treponema pallidum particle assay (TPPA). All the HIV positive subjects were referred to the local Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and clinics for HIV primary care and follow-ups. In total 646 HIV first-time-testers of MSM (FMSM) attended this study, 73.4% (474/646) were aged under 31-year-old and 57.3% (370/646) and used the Internet as their major cruising avenue for seeking male sexual partners. The average prevalence of HIV and current syphilis infection was 10.8% (70/646) and 11.0% (71/646), respectively. The HIV incidence was 10.3 (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.1–14.5)/100PY. Multivariate logistic analysis showed that factors such as use of the Internet as the major cruising avenue (adjusted OR [AOR] 2.7, 95% CI 0.9–7.6) and having a current syphilis infection (AOR 4.2, 95% CI 1.8–12.2) were independent correlates of a recent HIV infection. Of the 95 HIV screening test positive FMSM, 73.7% (70/95) returned and be confirmed positive, 92.9% (65/70) of confirmed patients were linked to care. Among those retained and underwent CD4+ T cell test, 76.3% (42/55) started HIV antiretroviral therapy. Among the unconfirmed, 84.0% (21/25) were non-local migrants. The HIV incidence of FMSM in Shenyang was high. Future HIV testing program needs to keep on expanding among the MSM who have never been tested for HIV yet. The Internet-based campaigns and syphilis testing and treatment could represent an opportunity to get access to this hard-to-reach population and link them to HIV care. Future linkage to HIV care of this population should underscore the usage of HIV rapid diagnostic tests to prevent lost at early steps of linkage.

The progression of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) within host includes typical stages and the Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) is shown to be effective in slowing down this progression. There are great challenges in describing the entire HIV disease progression and evaluating comprehensive effects of ART on life expectancy for HIV infected individuals on ART. We develop a novel summative treatment benefit index (TBI), based on an HIV viral dynamics model and linking the infection and viral production rates to the Weibull function. This index summarizes the integrated effect of ART on the life expectancy (LE) of a patient, and more importantly, can be reconstructed from the individual clinic data. The proposed model, faithfully mimicking the entire HIV disease progression, enables us to predict life expectancy and trace back the timing of infection. We fit the model to the longitudinal data in a cohort study in China to reconstruct the treatment benefit index, and we describe the dependence of individual life expectancy on key ART treatment specifics including the timing of ART initiation, timing of emergence of drug resistant virus variants and ART adherence. We show that combining model predictions with monitored CD4 counts and viral loads can provide critical information about the disease progression, to assist the design of ART regimen for maximizing the treatment benefits.

Longitudinal studies of female sex workers (FSWs) are vulnerable to loss to follow-up (LTFU) due to this population’s high mobility and low willingness to self-identify as FSWs. LTFU in cohort studies is a critical problem and may lead to bias in estimation of incidence and exposure-outcome associations. The aim of this study was to analyze LTFU and HIV incidence and their associated factors in a 9-year longitudinal study of FSWs in Kaiyuan, Yunnan Province, China. This analysis includes all HIV-1 seronegative FSWs who were recruited into a prospective study in Kaiyuan with at least one follow-up visit after enrollment from March 2006 to November 2013. Participants were visited in 6-month intervals after enrollment. Their demographic and behavioral data and blood specimens for HIV and sexual transmitted disease testing were collected at enrollment and at each follow-up visit. The administrative censoring date was December 31, 2014. Participants were considered LTFU if their last visit occurred 1 year or more before the administrative censoring date. Univariate and multivariable Cox regression models with time-independent variables were used to investigate the hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) of the factors associated with LTFU and HIV acquisition. Of the 1158 FSWs, 950 were defined as LTFUs (LTFU rate: 29.69, 95 % CI: 27.85–31.62 per 100 person years [PYs]), and 33 experienced HIV seroconversions (cumulative incidence: 1.06, 95 % CI: 0.74–1.47 per 100 PYs). After adjustment, we found that FSWs who used drugs were less likely to be LTFU compared with non-drug users (adjust hazard ratio [AHR]= 0.62, 95 % CI: 0.51–0.76), though FSWs who used drug were associated with a higher risk of HIV acquisition (AHR = 3.06, 95 % CI: 1.49–6.30). Also, FSWs who always used condoms with clients in the previous month were associated with a higher risk of LTFU (AHR = 1.51, 95 % CI: 1.15–1.97), while they were negative associated with new HIV infection (AHR = 0.28, 95 % CI: 0.12–0.61). A high LTFU rate exists in the Kaiyuan FSW cohort study, and LTFU did not occur at random. Participants retained in the cohort tended to be at higher risk of HIV acquisition, which may result in an overestimate of the incidence of HIV infection from the Kaiyuan FSW cohort.

Background: The national annually reported proportion of men who have sex with men (MSM) among people living with HIV (PLWH) is growing in China. To better inform the public health sector how to improve HIV prevention strategies, it is necessary to understand the current level of HIV incidence and its correlates. Methods: Google Scholar, PubMed, Web of Science and three major Chinese electronic publication databases (http://qikan.cqvip.com/, http://g.wanfangdata.com.cn/, http://www.cnki.net/, respectively) were searched for studies reporting HIV incidence. Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (CMA) 2.0 statistical software (Biostat, Inc. Englewood, NJ, USA) was used to calculate the pooled HIV incidence and perform subgroup-analysis to find correlates for HIV seroconversion in Chinese MSM. Random effects modelling was then conducted. Results: Twenty-five eligible studies were included in this meta-analysis. The calculated pooled HIV incidence was 5.61/100 person years (PY), with an increasing trend over time (3.24/100PY, 5.29/100PY, 5.50/100PY in 2005–2008, 2009–2011, 2012–2014 respectively, ?2 test for trend P = 0.04). Subgroup analyses indicated that age <25 years (rate ratio (RR) = 1.85), junior college education and below (RR = 1.87), having = 2 male sexual partners in past 6 months (RR = 2.50), baseline syphilis infection (RR = 2.99), homosexual orientation (RR = 1.91), preferred bottom/versatile roles in anal sexual intercourse (RR = 2.33), and having unprotected anal intercourse in the past 6 months (RR = 2.16) significantly increased the risk for HIV seroconversion (each P < 0.05). Uncircumcised MSM had a marginal statistically significant higher HIV incidence (RR = 3.35, P = 0.051). Conclusion: HIV incidence is still alarmingly high among Chinese MSM. Stronger HIV intervention strategies should be implemented, in particular targeting young, less educated and syphilis-infected MSM.

Background. The 90-90-90 targets recommended by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS require strengthening human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care, which includes diagnosis, linkage to and retention in care, assessment for treatment suitability, and optimization of HIV treatment. We sought to quantify patient engagement along the continuum, 10 years after introduction of Chinese HIV care policies. Methods. We included patients from Shandong, China, who were diagnosed with HIV from 1992 to 2013. Records were obtained from the HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System to populate a 7-step HIV care continuum. Pearson χ² test and multivariate logistic regression were used for analysis. Results. Of 6500 estimated HIV-infected persons, 60.1% were diagnosed, of whom 41.9% received highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Only 59.6% of patients on HAART and 15% of all infected persons achieved viral suppression. Children infected by mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) and persons infected by intravenous drug use were less likely to be linked to and retained in care (odds ratio [OR], 0.33 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .14–.80] and OR, 0.58 [95% CI, .40–.90], respectively). Persons tested in custodial institutions were substantially less likely to be on HAART (OR, 0.22 [95% CI, .09–.59]) compared with those tested in medical facilities. Patients on HAART infected by homosexual or heterosexual transmission and those infected by MTCT were less likely to achieve viral suppression (OR, 0.18 [95% CI, .09–.34]; OR, 0.12 [95% CI, .06–.22]; OR, 0.07 [95% CI, .02–.20], respectively). Conclusions. Our report suggests, at the current rate, Shandong Province has to accelerate HIV care efforts to close disparities in HIV care and achieve the 90-90-90 goals equitably.