Souly Phanouvong

: Substandard and falsified medicines are harmful to patients, causing prolonged illness, side effects, and preventable deaths. Moreover, they have an impact on the health system and society more broadly by leading to additional care, higher disease burden, productivity losses and loss of trust in health care. Models that estimate the health and economic impacts of substandard and falsified medicines can be useful for regulators to contextualize the problem and to make an economic case for solutions. Yet these models have not been systematically catalogued to date. We reviewed existing models that estimate the health and economic impact of substandard and falsified medicines to describe the varying modeling approaches and gaps in knowledge. We compared model characteristics, data sources, assumptions, and limitations. Seven models were identified. The models assessed the impact of antimalarial (n = 5) or antibiotic (n = 2) quality at a national (n = 4), regional (n = 2), or global (n = 1) level. Most models conducted uncertainty analysis and provided ranges around potential outcomes. We found that models are lacking for other medicines, few countries’ data have been analyzed, and capturing population heterogeneity remains a challenge. Providing the best estimates of the impact of substandard and falsified medicines on a level that is actionable for decision-makers is important. To enable this, research on the impact of substandard and falsified medicines should be expanded to more medicine types and classes and tailored to more countries that are affected, with greater specificity.

This meeting report presents the key findings and discussion points of a 1-day meeting entitled ‘Fake anti-malarials: start with the facts’ held on 28th May 2015, in Geneva, Switzerland, to disseminate the findings of the artemisinin combination therapy consortium’s drug quality programme. The teams purchased over 10,000 samples, using representative sampling approaches, from six malaria endemic countries: Equatorial Guinea (Bioko Island), Cambodia, Ghana, Nigeria, Rwanda and Tanzania. Laboratory analyses of these samples showed that falsified anti-malarials (<8 %) were found in just two of the countries, whilst substandard artemisinin-based combinations were present in all six countries and, artemisinin-based monotherapy tablets are still available in some places despite the fact that the WHO has urged regulatory authorities in malaria-endemic countries to take measures to halt the production and marketing of these oral monotherapies since 2007. This report summarizes the presentations that reviewed the public health impact of falsified and substandard drugs, sampling strategies, techniques for drug quality analysis, approaches to strengthen health systems capacity for the surveillance of drug quality, and the ensuing discussion points from the dissemination meeting.

Monitoring the quality of medicines plays a crucial role in an integrated medicines quality assurance system. In a publicly available medicines quality database (MQDB), the U.S. Pharmacopeial Convention (USP) reports results of data collected from medicines quality monitoring (MQM) activities spanning the period of 2003–2013 in 17 countries of Africa, Asia, and South America. The MQDB contains information on 15,063 samples collected and tested using Minilab® screening methods and/or pharmacopeial methods. Approximately 71% of the samples reported came from Asia, 23% from Africa, and 6% from South America. The samples collected and tested include mainly antibiotic, antimalarial, and antituberculosis medicines. A total of 848 samples, representing 5.6% of total samples, failed the quality test. The failure proportion per region was 11.5%, 10.4%, and 2.9% for South America, Africa, and Asia, respectively. Eighty-one counterfeit medicines were reported, 86.4% of which were found in Asia and 13.6% in Africa. Additional analysis of the data shows the distribution of poor-quality medicines per region and by therapeutic indication as well as possible trends of counterfeit medicines.