Gemedo Furo

Climate change poses a critical threat to agricultural systems in Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA), a region characterized by high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, despite its minimal contribution to global emissions. This study investigates the long‐term impact of climate change adaptation readiness, comprising economic, governance, and social dimensions, on agricultural productivity in SSA. Using panel data from 29 countries (1995–2023) and using total factor productivity (TFP), cereal yield, and agricultural value added as productivity proxies, the analysis employs Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) to address cross‐sectional dependency and heteroskedasticity, and Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) to assess heterogeneous effects across the conditional productivity distribution. The results reveal that the influence of adaptation readiness is multidimensional and contingent on both the productivity measure and its distributional quantile. For TFP, economic and social readiness show significant positive average effects. Yet, quantile analysis indicates economic readiness is vital for low‐productivity systems, whereas governance readiness gains significance only among high‐productivity systems. For cereal yield, all three readiness dimensions exhibit positive average effects, with social readiness demonstrating the strongest consistent impact. Conversely, only economic readiness consistently enhances agricultural value added. Furthermore, the analysis uncovers notable regional heterogeneity in these relationships across SSA sub‐regions. Policymakers suggest moving beyond uniform interventions and designing context‐specific readiness investments that address distinct productivity constraints and the varied needs of agricultural systems across the productivity spectrum. Furthermore, the study findings strongly support achieving United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially for SDGs 2, 13, and 8 in SSA countries.

Cluster farming has been promoted as an institutional strategy to improve smallholder productivity, market access and profitability in developing countries. However, empirical evidence on the association between governance practices and wheat profitability within cluster systems remains limited. This study examines the role of governance practices on the profitability of wheat farmers in Ethiopia, placing particular emphasis on the mediating role of farm‐gate selling prices. Using cross‐sectional data from 759 farmers across 11 clusters, governance dimension indices were constructed using principal component analysis, and effects were estimated using two‐stage least squares, three‐stage least squares and quantile regression. Results show that accountability, participation and conflict resolution have positive and significant effects on wheat profitability, while transparency has a negative association, likely reflecting coordination and compliance costs. Mediation analysis reveals that farm‐gate price explains about 89.5% of governance's total effect on profitability. Governance effects also vary by cluster group, landholding size, input use and profitability levels. Strong governance improves bargaining power, price realisation and economic returns. The findings highlight the importance of institutional quality in cluster farming. Strengthening accountability, participation and conflict resolution can significantly improve profitability and support smallholder livelihoods, offering key policy insights for cluster‐based agricultural development in Ethiopia and similar contexts.

Agriculture is the cornerstone of sub‐Saharan Africa's (SSA) economy, contributing substantially to national income and employing a significant proportion of the labour force. Despite its economic importance, the sector remains dominated by smallholder farmers with low productivity. In response, the African Union launched the Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program (CAADP) in 2003 to transition African agriculture from subsistence‐based to market‐oriented production through increased public investment. This study examines the impact of fiscal agricultural expenditure on agricultural productivity in the SSA region and investigates convergence in agricultural productivity across countries. Using unbalanced panel data from 30 SSA nations (2003–2023), we employed panel corrected standard errors (PCSE) to address cross‐sectional dependence, with feasible generalised least squares (FGLS) for robustness. Beta‐ and sigma‐convergence tests further assessed disparities in productivity trends. The findings reveal that agricultural expenditure has a significant impact on productivity: A 1% increase leads to a 0.02% rise in total factor productivity, a 0.05% increase in labour productivity and a 0.2% improvement in land productivity following the implementation of CAADP. In addition, the implementation period of CAADP used as a policy dummy also has a positive influence on agricultural productivity when compared to the baseline period. Similarly, the study indicates the persistent existence of absolute and conditional beta‐convergence in three agricultural measures. Meanwhile, sigma‐convergence tests confirm a reduction in dispersion of total factor productivity, but divergent results are observed for labour and land productivities. These findings suggest that heightened public investment is needed to accelerate productivity growth and narrow performance gaps in SSA's agricultural sector.

Land degradation continues to threaten rural livelihoods and long‐term development, boosting interest in restoration strategies such as planting fast‐growing tree species. Eucalyptus plantations have expanded rapidly in many degraded landscapes, yet evidence remains limited on how they influence household wellbeing when the economic value of tree stands is fully accounted for. This study aims to estimate the causal effects of eucalyptus planting on rural households' annual income and accumulated asset values, with explicit attention to its role in rehabilitating degraded land. We integrate the value of eucalyptus stands into household asset portfolios using the Faustmann immature stand valuation model and estimate causal impacts using propensity score matching (PSM), inverse probability weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA), and augmented inverse propensity weighting (AIPW). The novelty of this study lies in (i) incorporating tree‐stand valuation into household asset measurement and (ii) applying a doubly‐robust causal inference framework that strengthens the reliability of impact estimates. Results reveal that eucalyptus planting has a negative average impact on annual household income, primarily due to trade‐offs with farm‐based income sources. Whilst it has a positive effect on accumulated wealth. Mechanism analysis results indicate that eucalyptus planting indirectly increases household income through asset accumulation. Overall, eucalyptus cultivation, when targeted to degraded land and supported by short‐term subsidies or policy interventions, has strong potential for promoting sustainable rural development. Future research using panel and landscape‐scale ecological data would further strengthen and extend our findings for long‐term socio‐ecological outcomes of planting eucalyptus.

Intra‐African agricultural trade (IAAT) is a critical driver of national income, food security, and demand‐supply stabilization across the continent. Despite initiatives like the Comprehensive Africa Agricultural Development Programme (CAADP) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) designed to promote regional trade, IAAT remains below 20% of Africa's total agricultural trade. This study investigates the determinants of this persistent gap, focusing specifically on the relative impact of tariff measures (TMs), non‐tariff measures (NTMs), and governance indicators. Using an unbalanced panel dataset from 26 Sub‐Saharan African countries (2003–2023), the analysis employs the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) to account for substantial cross‐country heterogeneity, with robustness checks conducted using Powell's conditional quantile regression. The findings demonstrate that NTMs are the most significant barrier to IAAT. A 1% increase in NTMs reduces agricultural exports (IAAE) by 0.71%–0.83% and imports (IAAI) by 0.43%–0.83% across the quantile distribution. The effect of TMs is less consistent, showing a significant but smaller negative impact only on imports. Governance quality exhibits a complex role: regulatory quality consistently enhances IAAE (0.58%–0.83%), whereas government effectiveness shows a negative relationship with trade flows. Furthermore, the analysis reveals significant heterogeneity in these effects across Regional Economic Communities (RECs), to consider the region‐specific nature of trade barriers. The study concludes that policies aimed at enhancing IAAT must prioritize the reduction and harmonization of NTMs over mere tariff liberalization. Additionally, targeted improvements in regulatory governance and regionally tailored strategies are essential to unlocking the full potential of intra‐African agricultural trade.

Rapid urbanization and economic growth in Ethiopia are transforming rural landscapes and driving an increased demand for wood resources. In response, smallholder‐managed eucalyptus‐based agroforestry (EBAF) has expanded, reshaping land‐use patterns and tree cover outside forests. This study examines the spatial interactions and spillover effects of socioeconomic and climatic drivers on EBAF expansion across 35 districts in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2024, with natural forest cover, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and ecosystem service values (ESV) analyzed as complementary outcomes. Using remote sensing data and spatial econometric models, we find strong spatial dependence (0.599) in EBAF. Population density (0.0001), elevation, and mean annual temperature (0.332) significantly promote EBAF expansion, while rainfall and urbanization exert opposite effects. Climate spillovers, particularly rising maximum temperatures (−0.784), hurt dense natural forests. NDVI and ESV hotspots are concentrated in the southern highlands; degradation in northern districts is linked to declining rainfall and economic pressure. As a robustness check, we incorporated year‐specific Gi* hotspot indicators and alternative spatial weight matrices into the spatial econometric models. The results confirm that the estimated spatial spillovers remain stable and are consistent with the rook contiguity matrix. Overall, the results indicate that EBAF expansion is the dominant land‐use response to demographic, urban, and climatic pressures, with broader implications for vegetation condition and ecosystem services. Incorporating spatial spillover effects into Ethiopia's Climate‐Resilient Green Economy and Green Legacy initiatives can improve the targeting of agroforestry incentives, reforestation efforts, and ecosystem restoration, supporting both livelihood resilience and long‐term environmental sustainability.

Introduction: An analysis of the impacts of watershed rehabilitation on land cover dynamics and income contribution for local communities is vital for assessing the sustainability of ecological restoration policy development and mitigating the adverse effects of ecosystem degradation. However, integrating ecological, economic, and social frameworks to assess rehabilitation impacts is an area often overlooked in prior studies. Objectives: This study evaluates the impacts of watershed rehabilitation interventions on land cover and ecosystem service values, and examines the challenges to the sustainability of rehabilitated watersheds in Wera district, Ethiopia. Methods: Cross‐sectional data and satellite imagery from 1984 to 2023 were applied to assess land cover change and estimate ecosystem service values. Land cover was examined for 2023 with the Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager and for 1984 with the Landsat 4–5 Thematic Mapper. Results: The results show a significant decline in degraded land and a 1554.9 ha increase in forest cover from 1984 to 2023. Ecosystem service value rose by U.S.$0.35 million, and a resilient community network has developed. However, weak institutions, low youth engagement, and limited cooperation between upstream and downstream communities remain key challenges to sustainability. Conclusions: Rehabilitation intervention boosts forest cover and economic outcomes by providing key resources. Forest cover increased by 1553.9 ha, raising ecosystem service values from U.S.$7.998 to U.S.$8.348 million.