Emmanuel Davies

Nigeria changed its goal for onchocerciasis from control to transmission elimination. Under the control program, ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) focused only on hyper/meso-endemic local government areas (LGAs) identified by Rapid Epidemiological Mapping of Onchocerciasis as having ≥ 20% nodule rates. Because transmission is likely in some LGAs where nodule rates are < 20%, the new elimination paradigm requires MDA expansion. Determining which hypoendemic areas require MDA, termed onchocerciasis elimination mapping, is a major challenge. In 2016, we studied 19 ivermectin-naive hypoendemic LGAs in southern Nigeria that bordered LGAs under MDA. Fifty adults and 50 children (aged 5–10 years) were tested in 110 villages for onchocerciasis IgG4 antibody using an Ov16 rapid diagnostic test (RDT). A 10% subset of subjects provided a blood spot for confirmatory Ov16 ELISA. The mean prevalence of RDT positives was 0.5% in the 5,276 children tested (village range, 0.0–4.0%) versus 3.3% in 5,302 adults (village range, 0.0–58.0%). There was 99.3% agreement between the Ov16 RDT and ELISA. Six different MDA launch thresholds were applied to the RDT results based on different recommendations by the Nigeria Onchocerciasis Elimination Committee and the Onchocerciasis Technical Advisory Subgroup of the WHO. Mass drug administration targets for the same area varied tenfold by threshold chosen, from one LGA (population to be treated 221,935) to 13 LGAs (population 2,426,987). Because the Ov16 threshold selected will have considerable cost and resource implications, the decision to initiate MDA should incorporate entomological data demonstrating onchocerciasis transmission.

Following the halt of mass drug administration (MDA) for lymphatic filariasis (LF), the WHO recommends at least 4 years of post-treatment surveillance (PTS) to confirm that transmission recrudescence or importation does not occur. The primary means of evaluation during PTS is repeated transmission assessment surveys (TASs) conducted at 2- to 3-year intervals after TAS-1 stop-MDA surveys. This study reports the results of TAS-2 and TAS-3 surveys in Plateau and Nasarawa states (pop. 6.9 million) of Nigeria divided into a minimum of seven evaluation units (EUs) per TAS. A total of 26,536 first- and second-year primary school children (approximately 6–7 years old) were tested for circulating filarial antigen (CFA) between 2014 and 2017. Of 12,313 children tested in TAS-2 surveys, only five (0.04%) were CFA positive, with no more than two positive samples from any one EU, which was below the critical value of 20 per EU. Of 14,240 children tested in TAS-3 surveys, none (0%) were CFA positive. These results indicate that LF transmission remains below sustainable transmission levels and suggest that elimination of transmission has been achieved in Plateau and Nasarawa, Nigeria.

Ivermectin treatment can cause central nervous system adverse events (CNS-AEs) in persons with very high-density Loa loa microfilaremia (≥ 30,000 mf/mL blood). Hypoendemic onchocerciasis areas where L. loa is endemic have been excluded from ivermectin mass drug administration programs (MDA) because of the concern for CNS AEs. The rapid assessment procedure for L. loa (RAPLOA) is a questionnaire survey to assess history of eye worm. If ≥ 40% of respondents report eye worm, this correlates with ≥ 2% prevalence of very high-density loiasis microfilaremia, posing an unacceptable risk of CNS-AEs after MDA. In 2016, we conducted a L. loa study in 110 ivermectin-naïve, suspected onchocerciasis hypoendemic villages in southern Nigeria. In previous RAPLOA surveys these villages had prevalences between 10% and 67%. We examined 10,605 residents using the LoaScope, a cell phone–based imaging device for rapidly determining the microfilaria (mf) density of L. loa infections. The mean L. loa village mf prevalence was 6.3% (range 0–29%) and the mean individual mf count among positives was 326 mf/mL. The maximum individual mf count was only 11,429 mf/mL, and among 2,748 persons sampled from the 28 villages with ≥ 40% RAPLOA, the ≥ 2% threshold of very high Loa mf density could be excluded with high statistical confidence (P < 0.01). These findings indicate that ivermectin MDA can be delivered in this area with extremely low risk of L. loa–related CNS-AEs. We also concluded that in Nigeria the RAPLOA survey methodology is not predictive of ≥ 2% prevalence of very high-density L. loa microfilaremia.

Nigeria has the largest population at risk for lymphatic filariasis (LF) in Africa. This study used a transmission assessment survey (TAS) to determine whether mass drug administration (MDA) for LF could stop in 21 districts, divided into four evaluation units (EUs), of Plateau and Nasarawa States, Nigeria, after 8–12 years of annual albendazole–ivermectin treatment. A total of 7,131 first- and second-year primary school children (approximately 6–7 years old) were tested for LF antigen by immunochromatographic test (ICT) from May to June 2012. The target sample size of 1,692 was exceeded in each EU (range = 1,767–1,795). A total of 25 (0.4%) individuals were ICT positive, with the number of positives in each EU (range = 3–11) less than the TAS cutoff of 20, meaning that LF transmission had been reduced below sustainable levels. As a result, 3.5 million annual albendazole–ivermectin treatments were halted in 2013. Combined with the previous halt of MDA for LF in other parts of Plateau and Nasarawa, these are the first Nigerian states to stop LF MDA statewide. Posttreatment surveillance is ongoing to determine if LF transmission has been interrupted.

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is one of the neglected tropical diseases targeted for global elimination. The ability to interrupt transmission is, partly, influenced by the underlying intensity of transmission and its geographical variation. This information can also help guide the design of targeted surveillance activities. The present study uses a combination of geostatistical and mathematical modelling to predict the prevalence and transmission intensity of LF prior to the implementation of large-scale control in sub-Saharan Africa. A systematic search of the literature was undertaken to identify surveys on the prevalence of Wuchereria bancrofti microfilaraemia (mf), based on blood smears, and on the prevalence of antigenaemia, based on the use of an immuno-chromatographic card test (ICT). Using a suite of environmental and demographic data, spatiotemporal multivariate models were fitted separately for mf prevalence and ICT-based prevalence within a Bayesian framework and used to make predictions for non-sampled areas. Maps of the dominant vector species of LF were also developed. The maps of predicted prevalence and vector distribution were linked to mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of LF to infer the intensity of transmission, quantified by the basic reproductive number (R0). The literature search identified 1267 surveys that provide suitable data on the prevalence of mf and 2817 surveys that report the prevalence of antigenaemia. Distinct spatial predictions arose from the models for mf prevalence and ICT-based prevalence, with a wider geographical distribution when using ICT-based data. The vector distribution maps demonstrated the spatial variation of LF vector species. Mathematical modelling showed that the reproduction number (R0) estimates vary from 2.7 to 30, with large variations between and within regions. LF transmission is highly heterogeneous, and the developed maps can help guide intervention, monitoring and surveillance strategies as countries progress towards LF elimination.