Theodore G. Karrison

We propose a nonparametric estimate of the scale-change parameter for characterizing the difference between two survival functions under the accelerated failure time model using an estimating equation based on restricted means. Advantages of our restricted means based approach compared to current nonparametric procedures is the strictly monotone nature of the estimating equation as a function of the scale-change parameter, leading to a unique root, as well as the availability of a direct standard error estimate, avoiding the need for hazard function estimation or re-sampling to conduct inference. We derive the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator for fixed and for random point of restriction. In a simulation study, we compare the performance of the proposed estimator with parametric and nonparametric competitors in terms of bias, efficiency, and accuracy of coverage probabilities. The restricted means based approach provides unbiased estimates and accurate confidence interval coverage rates with efficiency ranging from 81% to 95% relative to fitting the correct parametric model. An example from a randomized clinical trial in head and neck cancer is provided to illustrate an application of the methodology in practice.

Background: Low birthweight, intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) and perinatal mortality have been associated with air pollution. However, intervention studies that use ultrasound measurements to assess the effects of household air pollution (HAP) on fetal biometric parameters (FBP) are rare. We investigated the effect of a cookstove intervention on FBP and IUGR in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) cohort of HAP-exposed pregnant Nigerian women. Methods: We recruited 324 women early in the second trimester of pregnancy. Between 16 and 18 weeks, we randomized them to either continue cooking with firewood/kerosene (control group) or receive a CleanCook stove and ethanol fuel (intervention group). We measured fetal biparietal diameter (BPD), head circumference (HC), femur length (FL), abdominal circumference (AC) and ultrasound-estimated fetal weight (U-EFW) in the second and third trimesters. The women were clinically followed up at six regular time points during their pregnancies. Once during the women’s second trimester and once during the third, we made 72-h continuous measurements of their personal exposures to particulate matter having aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μm (PM_2.5). We adopted a modified intent-to-treat approach for the analysis. Differences between the intervention and control groups on impact of HAP on fetal growth trajectories were analyzed using mixed effects regression models. Results: There were no significant differences in fetal growth trajectories between the intervention and control groups. Conclusions: Larger studies in a setting of low ambient air pollution are required to further investigate the effect of transitioning to a cleaner fuel such as ethanol on intrauterine growth. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02394574; September 2012

Candidate predictive biomarkers for epidermal growth factor receptor inhibitors (EGFRi), skin rash and serum proteomic assays, require further qualification to improve EGFRi therapy in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In a phase II trial that was closed to accrual because of changes in clinical practice we examined the relationships among candidate biomarkers, quantitative changes in tumor size, progression-free and overall survival. 55 patients with progressive NSCLC after platinum therapy were randomized to receive (Arm A) cetuximab, followed by pemetrexed at progression, or (Arm B) concurrent cetuximab and pemetrexed. All received cetuximab monotherapy for the first 14 days. Pre-treatment serum and weekly rash assessments by standard and EGFRi-induced rash (EIR) scales were collected. 43 patients (20-Arm A, 23-Arm B) completed the 14-day run-in. Median survival was 9.1 months. Arm B had better median overall (Arm B = 10.3 [95% CI 7.5, 16.8]; Arm A = 3.5 [2.8, 11.7] months P = 0.046) and progression-free survival (Arm B = 2.3 [1.6, 3.1]; Arm A = 1.6 [0.9, 1.9] months P = 0.11). The EIR scale distributed ratings among 6 rather than 3 categories but ordinal scale rash severity did not predict outcomes. The serum proteomic classifier and absence of rash after 21 days of cetuximab did. Absence of rash after 21 days of cetuximab therapy and the serum proteomic classifier, but not ordinal rash severity, were associated with NSCLC outcomes. Although in a small study, these observations were consistent with results from larger retrospective analyses. Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier NCT00203931