Tiago Carrilho Biló

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) redistributes heat, salt, oxygen, carbon, and nutrients in the Atlantic Ocean, providing warmth and moisture to the climate of northern Europe (Rhines and Häkkinen, 2003), displacing the Intertropical Convergence Zone northward of the equator (Ben-Yami et al., 2024), sequestering anthropogenic carbon in the deep ocean (Brown et al., 2021), and seeding the subpolar North Atlantic with sufficient nutrients to support the annual spring phytoplankton bloom (Williams et al., 2026). While models and proxies of the AMOC have been instrumental in understanding its past and future variability, large inter-model differences necessitate direct observations to provide a baseline from which to compare the models, as well as an unambiguous time series of recent AMOC variability. However, measuring a system as large and complex as the AMOC presents many challenges: spanning thousands of kilometers horizontally and covering full ocean depths, the AMOC is composed of currents that vary on daily to millennial time scales. Recirculating flows that can be an order of magnitude stronger than the AMOC itself further complicate observations.

Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) has drawn extensive attention due to its impact on the global redistribution of heat and freshwater. Here we present the latest time series (2014–2022) of the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program and characterize MOC interannual variability. We find that any single boundary current captures ∼30% of subpolar MOC interannual variability. However, to fully resolve MOC variability, a wide swath across the eastern subpolar basin is needed; in the Labrador Sea both boundaries are needed. Through a volume budget analysis for the subpolar basins' lower limbs, we estimate the magnitude of unresolved processes (e.g., diapycnal mixing) required to close the mean budget (∼2 Sv). We find that in the eastern subpolar basin surface‐forced transformation variability is linked to lower limb volume variability, which translates to MOC changes within the same year. In contrast, this linkage is weak in the Labrador Sea.

Starting in 2012, the eastern subpolar North Atlantic experienced the strongest surface freshening in the past 120 years. It is yet unknown whether this salinity anomaly propagated downward into the water column and affected the properties of the boundary currents of the subpolar gyre, which could slow down the overturning. Here, we investigate the imprint of this salinity anomaly on the warm and saline Irminger Current (IC) in the decade thereafter. Using daily mooring data from the IC covering the period 2014–2022 combined with hydrographic sections across the adjacent basins from 1990, the evolving signal of the salinity anomaly over the water column and its imprint on the transport variability is studied. We find that due to the salinity anomaly, the northward freshwater transport of the IC increased by 10 mSv in summer 2016 compared to summer 2015. In 2018, the salinity anomaly covered the water column down to 1,500 m depth. Hydrographic sections across the basin showed that this recent freshening signal spread across the Irminger Sea. Overall, the freshwater transport of the IC increased by a factor of three between 2014–2015 and 2021–2022. The associated density decrease over the upper 1,500 m of the water column resulted in an increase in the northward transport of waters lighter than σ₀ = 27.55 kg m⁻³ from 1.7 to 4.2 Sv. This change in northward IC transport by density class may impact the characteristics of the overturning in the Northeastern Atlantic, its strength and the density at which it peaks.

The North Atlantic subpolar gyre experienced strong freshening in recent years starting around 2012. Here, we investigate the imprint of this freshwater anomaly on the water column hydrography and transport variability of the Irminger Current (IC). The IC transports warm and saline waters northward along the western flank of the Reykjanes Ridge as part of the upper limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). To investigate if the salinity anomaly spread and propagated downward, we used high-resolution mooring data from the IC covering the period 2014 – 2022 combined with hydrographic sections from the Irminger Sea and Iceland Basin. We found that the IC experienced a strong freshening starting in summer 2016. By 2018, this salinity anomaly covers the whole water column down to 1500 m depth and freshened the IC until 2022. In 2022, the IC was at its freshest state observed since the early 1990’s. Hydrographic sections across the adjacent basins showed that the recent freshening spread across the Irminger Sea and was also comparable to its fresh state in the early 1990’s. The salinity anomaly increased the freshwater transport of the IC by a factor of three from 2014-2015 to 2021-2022 and caused a decrease in density over much of the water column. This resulted in an increase in the transport of waters lighter than 27.55 kg m-3, potentially strengthening the upper limb of the AMOC.

Previous studies have reported temperature increase of bottom waters in the South Atlantic Ocean at rates of about 2 moC-1. Here we present data indicating four-year warming at rates near the interior of the South Atlantic of up to 17(+/- 0.9) moC-1. The data were sampled from January 2019 to January 2023, at two previously unobserved locations, at 31.13oW and 34.50oS (Site E) and 18.82oW and 34.50oS (Site F). Each mooring was equipped with two independent temperature sensors, one placed 1 m above the seafloor and the other 50 m above. Site E was moored at a nominal depth of 4006 m, under the influence of the Antarctic Bottom Water. Site F was at 3888 m, within a layer influenced by the North Atlantic Deep Water. The data show strong seasonality and significant variability at the semi-diurnal cycle. At both sites, the trends are positive and significant, with the higher rate at the deeper location. Assuming similar surface warming at the convection regions, with the signals being advected to the sampling sites, this could be indicating that climate signals acquired near the surface around Antarctica are reaching the abyssal South Atlantic earlier than those carried by the North Atlantic Deep Water. However, the large spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability of such signals suggest that other local processes are also important in determining the observed temperature variability.

The Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) – the primary component of the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation – flows along the eastern flank of Greenland from a combination of Denmark Strait Overflow Water and Iceland Scotland Overflow Water. The Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) has continuously measured the DWBC since 2014 using current meters, temperature/salinity sensors, and acoustic doppler current profilers. This mooring array located near Cape Farewell also incorporates data from the Ocean Observatories Initiative’s Global Irminger Sea Array to create the longest continuous observations of the DWBC closest to where Iceland Scotland Overflow Water and Denmark Strait Overflow water first merge. This study reveals that the DWBC has decreased by 26% over the first six years of OSNAP observations primarily due to a thinning of the traditionally defined DWBC layer (σθ > 27.8 kg m-3) due to a known freshening signal moving through the subpolar region. Despite this decrease, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation as calculated by OSNAP has remained relatively steady over the same period. Ultimately, the reason for this difference is due to the methods used to define these two circulations. Finding such notably different trends for two seemingly dependent circulations raises the question of how to best define these transports.

Understanding the variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is essential for better predictions of our changing climate. Here we present an updated time series (August 2014 to June 2020) from the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program. The 6-year time series allows us to observe the seasonality of the subpolar overturning and meridional heat and freshwater transports. The overturning peaks in late spring and reaches a minimum in early winter, with a peak-to-trough range of 9.0 Sv. The overturning seasonal timing can be explained by winter transformation and the export of dense water, modulated by a seasonally varying Ekman transport. Furthermore, over 55% of the total meridional freshwater transport variability can be explained by its seasonality, largely owing to overturning dynamics. Our results provide the first observational analysis of seasonality in the subpolar North Atlantic overturning and highlight its important contribution to the total overturning variability observed to date.

The Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) is the main component of the deep limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Off northeast Brazil, the DWBC breaks up into southwestward‐propagating anticyclones. In this study, we investigate the breakup mechanism with hydrographic observations, eddy‐resolving numerical model outputs, and theory. Here, we present a quasi‐synoptic map of geostrophic velocities and stream function at the DWBC core level between 2.5°S and 11°S. We observe, in horizontal distributions of velocities, that the DWBC breakup site is linked to a topographic feature of the Brazilian continental margin centered at 8°S: the Pernambuco Plateau (PP). Moreover, both observations and model outputs hint at a possible DWBC separation near the PP preceding anticyclone genesis. We test, with three different theories from the literature, whether or not the DWBC separates at 8°S. The results of the tests converge to indicate that the DWBC undergoes a local and intermittent inertial separation while contouring the PP. Downstream of its separation at the plateau, the DWBC sheds eddies similarly to previously reported laboratory experiments. In addition, a regional analysis of energy transfer shows that barotropic instability significantly contributes to the anticyclones growth between 8°S and 13°S. Analysis of the energy budget and separation of waters related to the AMOC pathways into the basin interior provide a better understanding for later studies about heat fluxes and ventilation in the deep tropical South Atlantic.

The subpolar North Atlantic is a site of significant carbon dioxide, oxygen, and heat exchange with the atmosphere. This exchange, which regulates transient climate change and prevents large‐scale hypoxia throughout the North Atlantic, is thought to be mediated by vertical mixing in the ocean's surface mixed layer. Here we present observational evidence that waters deeper than the conventionally defined mixed layer are affected directly by atmospheric forcing in this region. When northerly winds blow along the Irminger Sea's western boundary current, the Ekman response pushes denser water over lighter water, potentially triggering slantwise convection. We estimate that this down‐front wind forcing is four times stronger than air–sea heat flux buoyancy forcing and can mix waters to several times the conventionally defined mixed layer depth. Slantwise convection is not included in most large‐scale ocean models, which likely limits their ability to accurately represent subpolar water mass transformations and deep ocean ventilation.