Rui Kong

Although the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) has come to an end, the evaluation of TRMM satellite precipitation is still of great significance for the improvement of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM). In this paper, the hydrological utility of TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 RTV7/V7 precipitation products was evaluated using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model in the upper Yangtze River basin. The main results show that (1) TMPA 3B42V7 had a reliable performance in precipitation estimation compared with the gauged precipitation on both spatial and temporal scales over the upper Yangtze River basin. Although TMPA 3B42V7 slightly underestimated precipitation, TMPA 3B42RTV7 significantly overestimated precipitation at daily and monthly time scales; (2) the simulated runoff by the VIC hydrological model showed a high correlation with the gauged runoff and lower bias at daily and monthly time scales. The Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSCE) value was as high as 0.85, the relative bias (RB) was −6.36% and the correlation coefficient (CC) was 0.93 at the daily scale; (3) the accuracy of the 3B42RTV7-driven runoff simulation had been greatly improved by using the hydrological calibration parameters obtained from 3B42RTV7 compared with that of gauged precipitation. A lower RB (14.38% vs. 66.58%) and a higher CC (0.87 vs. 0.85) and NSCE (0.71 vs. −0.92) can be found at daily time scales when we use satellite data instead of gauged precipitation data to calibrate the VIC model. However, the performance of the 3B42V7-driven runoff simulation did not improve in the same operation accordingly. The cause might be that the 3B42V7 satellite products have been adjusted by gauged precipitation. This study suggests that it might be better to calibrate the parameters using satellite data in hydrological simulations, especially for unadjusted satellite data. This study is not only helpful for understanding the assessment of multi-satellite precipitation products in large-scale and complex areas in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, but also can provide a reference for the hydrological utility of the satellite precipitation products in other river basins of the world.

The shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) were designed to project future socioeconomic developments as they might unfold in the absence of explicit additional policies and measures to limit climate forcing or to enhance adaptive capacity. Based on the sixth national population census and the third economic census data of China in 2010, this paper projects the population and economic conditions of the Yangtze River basin from 2010 to 2100 under the SSPs. The results showed that: (1) the population growth rate in most areas of the Yangtze River basin will decrease from 2021 to 2100. The population of the eastern Sichuan Province will decrease obviously, while it will increase obviously in Shanghai during this period. The population of the Yangtze River basin will decline from 2010 to 2100 under the SSPs except for SSP3; (2) The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in most regions will increase by more than CNY 30 billion (Chinese Yuan) compared with 2010 and the total GDP will continue to rise after 2020; (3) The population of the three major urban agglomerations will decrease from 2020 to 2100. However, the GDP of the three major urban agglomerations will increase year by year, among which the YRDUA (Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration) has obvious economic advantages. The GDP growth rate will maintain above 6% in 2020 under different SSPs, and then the growth rate will slow down or stall, even with negative growth in SSP1 and SSP4; (4) The GDP Per of the Yangtze River basin shows growth under different SSPs and it will maintain a growth rate of 6–9% until 2020. While the average annual growth rate of the SSP5 will be about 2.56% at the end of the 21st century, and it will remain at about 1% under other scenarios. This paper provides a scientific basis for the study of future population and socioeconomic changes and climate predictions for quantifying disaster risks.

Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is a basis of material and energy flows in terrestrial ecosystems, and it is also an important component in the research on carbon cycle and carbon budget. This paper evaluated the spatial distribution pattern and temporal change trends for forest NPP simulated by the LPJ (Lund-Potsdam-Jena) model and NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) in the Yangtze River basin from 1982 to 2013. The results revealed that: (1) the spatial distribution of the forest NPP and NDVI in the Yangtze River basin has gradually decreased from the southeast coast to the northwest. The forest NPP and NDVI in the mid-lower Yangtze were higher than that of the upper Yangtze; (2) the forest NPP and NDVI in most areas of the Yangtze River basin were positively correlated with the temperature and precipitation. Moreover, the correlations among the temperature with the forest NPP and NDVI were stronger than that of correlations among precipitation with forest NPP and NDVI. Moreover, the extreme drought event in the year of 2004–2005 led the NPP to decrease in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin; (3) human activity such as major ecological projects would have a certain impact on the NPP and NDVI. The increase in forest areas from 2000 to 2010 was larger than that from 1990 to 2000. Moreover, the increasing rate for the NDVI was higher than that of NPP, especially after the year 2000, which indicates that the major ecological projects might have great impacts on the vegetation dynamics. Moreover, more attention should be paid on the joint impacts of human activity and climate change on terrestrial NPP and NDVI.