Nadia Politi

This study outlines the conceptual framework and stakeholder-driven requirements for the Just Climate Urban Resilience Service (Just-CURS), an urban Digital Twin platform developed as part of CLIMATE-ADAPT4EOSC EU-Horizon project. Just-CURS is designed to establish a new standard for cross-disciplinary research, promoting a more coherent and effective integration of climate and social data to inform both scientific understanding and policy-making in urban climate adaptation. The approach introduces innovative elements by advancing a more holistic assessment of urban climate risk, in contrast to existing methods that consider environmental and climatic factors separately from socio-economic factors. The Just-CURS framework integrates high-resolution climate modelling with participatory, stakeholder-driven data, embedding the FAIR principles and interoperability standards consistent with the European Open Science Cloud (EOSC) to deliver a unified set of indicators and services for assessing urban climate resilience in extreme heat. This comprehensive integration represents a significant advance over traditional methodologies, enabling continuous monitoring, exploration of “what-if” adaptation scenarios, and evidence-based urban planning to make cities smart. Ultimately, Just-CURS distinguishes itself as a replicable and operational tool that not only enhances local resilience in the Municipality of Aigaleo, Greece, but also contributes to the broader transition towards interoperable, data-driven climate adaptation services across European cities.

The ICARIA Horizon Europe risk-assessment framework and web-based Decision Support System (DSS) were applied in the Southern Aegean Region (Greece) to quantify single- and multi-hazard climate risks (wildfire, heatwave, extreme wind) and to assess adaptation under historical and future climates (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5). The study integrates high-resolution hazard layers (5 km Fire Weather Index, downscaled temperature extremes), satellite-derived land surface temperature (30 m LST for building exposure), asset-level exposure and vulnerability, and probabilistic event-tree-based multi-hazard modelling, and was tested with stakeholders in Rhodes and Syros. Results show increases in wildfire and ecological multi-hazard risk: ecological high-risk (categories 4–5) areas expand by ~10–15%, and economic high-risk zones by ~5–8%. On Rhodes, very high fire-weather days (FWI > 70) rise under SSP5–8.5, and the central mountains shift into the highest ecological risk (category 5). A multi-hazard indicator (FWI > 80, Tmax > 30 °C, wind > 10.8 m/s) identifies persistent future hotspots. The 2023 Rhodes wildfire (~17,600 acres burned; ~€1.29 M electricity, ~€400 k water damage, ~2500 livestock and ~60,000 olive trees lost; ~19,000 evacuees) supports model projections. Adaptation substantially reduces risk. Vegetation substitution (e.g., Ceratonia siliqua, low-flammability stands) cuts category-5 ecological areas by ~30–32% and high-risk economic areas by ~20% (single hazard) and ~28–34% (multi-hazard). On Syros, retrofitting 1980–2010 buildings reduces top-risk classes (4–5) by ~25–35% and lowers thermal-stress exposure. Stakeholder trials found the DSS user-friendly and useful for comparing business-as-usual versus adaptation scenarios and for strategic planning, while highlighting needs for broader hazard coverage and continued support.

Traditional dry-stone terraces, locally known as “xerolithies,” have historically characterised the steep terrains of the Cyclades, including the islands of Syros and Tinos. While initially built to secure arable land and prevent soil erosion in semi-arid environments, their current contribution to alleviating climate-related hazards remains underexplored in scientific literature. As climate change leads to more frequent extreme rainfall events in the Mediterranean, the widespread abandonment of these terraced catchments calls for sophisticated hydrological modelling to assess their present effectiveness in regional water management.By significantly lowering the effective slope of mountainous island catchments, dry-stone terraces act as a nature-based solution (NBS) to slow rainwater to non-erosive velocities, thereby reducing the rapid flow connectivity over the land. The naturally permeable nature of “xerolithies,” which are built entirely without mortar, allows excess water from seasonal storms to gradually infiltrate through structural gaps rather than swiftly flowing over the low impermeability metamorphic lithology of these islands. This temporary storage of storm runoff plays a crucial role in preventing severe soil erosion within the Cycladic landscape while substantially improving deep water infiltration, increasing soil moisture retention, and supporting vital groundwater recharge.To precisely quantify these environmental benefits under future climate pressures, high-resolution geospatial terrain data from representative catchments on Syros and Tinos are combined with advanced hydrodynamic modelling frameworks (Barnhart et al., 2020). The methodology employs detailed climate simulations to assess how landscapes respond to extreme weather events (Politi et al., 2022), explicitly comparing scenarios with intact terraces to those with heavily degraded or barren slopes. By modelling intense, low-probability extreme precipitation events based on localized climate projections, the approach monitors peak surface discharge, water flow dynamics, and sediment transport across the islands’ complex topography.Integrating traditional Cycladic engineering systems (Jiménez De Madariaga, 2021), included in UNESCO’s Representative List of the Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity since 2024, into modern water management strategies directly supports the broader goals of European Union climate adaptation projects across the Mediterranean. Additionally, restoring “xerolithies” helps preserve critical ecological microhabitats for local flora and fauna, enhances the productivity of agricultural land, and increases resilience against extreme weather events. ReferencesBarnhart, K.R., Hutton, E.W.H., Tucker, G.E., Gasparini, N.M., Istanbulluoglu, E., Hobley, D.E.J., Lyons, N.J., Mouchene, M., Nudurupati, S.S., Adams, J.M., Bandaragoda, C., 2020. Short communication: Landlab v2.0: a software package for Earth surface dynamics. Earth Surf. Dynam. 8, 379–397. https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-379-2020Jiménez De Madariaga, C., 2021. Dry stone constructions – intangible cultural heritage and sustainable environment. JCHMSD 11, 614–626. https://doi.org/10.1108/JCHMSD-12-2020-0180Politi, N., Vlachogiannis, · D, Sfetsos, · A, Nastos, · P T, 2022. High resolution projections for extreme temperatures and precipitation over Greece. Climate Dynamics 2022 1, 1–35. https://doi.org/10.1007/S00382-022-06590-W

This study examines the effects of climate change on precipitation and drought conditions in Greece, focusing on basin-level hydrological analysis. It builds on existing evidence that the Mediterranean region is highly vulnerable to global warming, experiencing reduced rainfall, extended droughts, and increased hydro-climatic extremes. Using high-resolution down-scaled climate projections under multiple RCP scenarios, the research quantifies precipitation volume within specific hydrological basins, incorporating detailed basin geometries and spatial statistical methods. Alongside precipitation estimates, consecutive dry days and drought frequency, assessed via the Standardised Precipitation Index, offer a multi-indicator view of climate stress. This basin-specific framework connects climate modelling with water resource management, supporting more targeted adaptation strategies. The findings provide new spatial insights into how precipitation redistributes across basins under future climate conditions, with implications for drought-prone regions in Greece.

This study presents a comprehensive wildfire risk assessment framework for Rhodes Island, Greece, aimed at quantifying the impacts of climate change on hazard levels and vulnerability in a typical Mediterranean environment. The approach integrates Fire Weather Index (FWI) data, detailed fuel-type mapping, and multiple vulnerability indicators covering ecological, socioeconomic, and population factors, enabling spatially explicit estimates of current and future wildfire risk. Historically, Rhodes mostly faces moderate wildfire risk, mainly in central and northeastern regions, with localised areas of higher risk near settlements and key economic sites. Climate forecasts for 2025–2049 predict a notable increase in hazard, with areas experiencing extreme fire weather (FWI > 50) increasing from 15.19% to 66–72%, across all emission scenarios. Ecological vulnerability is particularly alarming, as 93% of the island is already highly susceptible; fire-prone forest and agricultural zones are expected to move into the highest ecological risk categories, especially in the central mountain areas. The devastating 2023 wildfire, which burned over 17,600 hectares, caused more than €5.8 million in direct damages and led to the largest evacuation in the island’s history, closely aligning with high-risk zones modelled in the framework. An important insight is the limited spatial variation in near-future risk between RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, indicating that significant wildfire intensification is largely unavoidable by mid-century, emphasising the urgent need for quick adaptation and risk mitigation efforts for Mediterranean critical infrastructure and communities.

The future climate is anticipated to affect economic activities, the unique natural and forest ecosystems, agriculture, buildings, and communities in the region of the Troodos Mountains in Cyprus. The current study, as part of the European project Regions4Climate (R4C), aimed to develop a sustainable tourism model for this specific region to ensure the climate resilience of the Troodos communities while preserving its traditional products and ecosystems for future generations. Tangible key risk climate indicators were calculated using the CORDEX climate surface datasets to estimate the spatial changes under two climate scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The climate indicators were specifically selected to identify several known regional hazards, such as drought, heatwaves, forest fires, etc., that are linked to impacts on socio-economic activities like tourism, ecosystems, agriculture, energy, and water resources.

As local risk assessments are fundamental for risk management and mitigation strategies, this work introduces a methodology for assessing multi-hazard scenarios of extreme compounded events and their duration using daily time series of surface variables from high-resolution climate simulations during historical and future periods under RCP8.5. The aim was to investigate the return level extremes of 20- and 50-year periods of hazards occurring within specific durations and concurrent extreme values of other surface variables, for selected locations in Greece. In addition, future changes in the temporal occurrence of compounded hazards involving precipitation and wind with temperature extremes were performed based on temperature extreme percentiles. The assessment revealed the geographical dependence in the projected occurrence, intensity, and duration of compounded multi-hazard extremes, emphasising the need for high spatial resolution climate data for their investigation. The highlights of the findings include a significant increasing trend of compounded multi-hazard extremes, e.g., hot days and tropical nights, milder winter minimum temperatures with lower rainfall extremes, hotter and windier events of shorter duration, and longer precipitation extremes with increased extreme temperatures. The projections showcased the impact of climate change on extreme compounds with a multitude of interesting findings associated with significant changes in their duration, intensity, and temporal occurrence.

Climate change and its effects on water availability call for innovative and sustainable solutions for tackling water scarcity and drought in arid and semi-arid regions. Arid regions, grappling with the complex interplay of climate change, population growth, and heightened demand for water resources, demand a paradigm shift in the way we approach water management.The island of Syros and the Cyclades region, in general, are historically affected by drought and water scarcity. To tackle these phenomena, the local communities have been dependent on alternative water resources, mainly rainwater harvesting and seawater desalination. Over the past years, managed aquifer recharge from reclaimed wastewater is also tested and implemented to increase the water safety of the island. The performance of a rainwater harvesting (RWH) system depends on various factors such as the amount of rainfall, the size and design of the system, the quality of the water collected, and the demand for water. Although RWH is embedded to the local architecture (flat roofs and built-in water reservoirs), not all buildings have the capacity to collect the maximum water for precipitation. These buildings represent all public buildings and buildings with limited storing capacity. Adding these buildings to the equation, the local community is closer to the RWH potential of 50 m3/capita per annum. Such communal rainwater application will reduce the demand on desalinated water production, especially outside the touristic period, resulting on decreasing energy needs and consequently CO2 emissions. This work explores a visionary approach to addressing the water crisis in arid islands, advocating for the design of a communal rainwater harvesting administration and implementation framework tailored to the unique needs of arid and semi-arid islands. Such application will increase the water safety of these areas, while decreasing the environmental impact of energy demanding alternative water resources.

As warmer and drier conditions associated with global warming are projected to increase in southern Europe, the Mediterranean countries are currently the most prone to wildfire danger. In the present study, we investigated the statistical relationship between drought and fire weather risks in the context of climate change using drought index and fire weather-related indicators. We focused on the vulnerable and long-suffering area of the Attica region using high-resolution gridded climate datasets. Concerning fire weather components and fire hazard days, the majority of Attica consistently produced values that were moderately to highly anti-correlated (−0.5 to −0.9). This suggests that drier circumstances raise the risk of fires. Additionally, it was shown that the spatial dependence of each variable on the 6-months scale Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI6), varied based on the period and climate scenario. Under both scenarios, an increasing rate of change between the drought index and fire indicators was calculated over future periods versus the historical period. In the case of mean and 95th percentiles of FWI with SPEI6, abrupt changes in linear regression slope values were observed, shifting from lower in the past to higher values in the future periods. Finally, the fire indicators’ future projections demonstrated a tendency towards an increasing fire weather risk for the region’s non-urban (forested and agricultural) areas. This increase was evident from the probability distributions shifting to higher mean and even more extreme values in future periods and scenarios. The study demonstrated the region’s growing vulnerability to future fire incidents in the context of climate change.

Many modern frameworks for community resilience and emergency management in the face of extreme hydrometeorological and climate events rely on scenario building. These scenarios typically cover multiple hazards and assess the likelihood of their occurrence. They are quantified by their main characteristics, including likelihood of occurrence, intensity, duration, and spatial extent. However, most studies in the literature focus only on the first two characteristics, neglecting to incorporate the internal hazard dynamics and their persistence over time. In this study, we propose a multidimensional approach to construct extreme event scenarios for multiple hazards, such as heat waves, cold spells, extreme precipitation and snowfall, and wind speed. We consider the intensity, duration, and return period (IDRP) triptych for a specific location. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach by developing pertinent scenarios for eight locations in Greece with diverse geographical characteristics and dominant extreme hazards. We also address how climate change impacts the scenario characteristics.