Sá Nogueira Lisboa

The design of science-based policies to improve the sustainability of smallholder agriculture is challenged by a limited understanding of fundamental system properties, such as the spatial distribution of active cropland and field size. We integrate 1.5 m resolution satellite imagery, satellite embeddings, and deep learning to map individual fields in complex smallholder systems at policy-relevant scale. We identify 17 million fields across Mozambique for the target year 2023, reflecting the cropland distribution but also pointing to previously uncaptured agricultural regions located in agricultural frontier regions which host 5%–9% of the Mozambican population. Field size in Mozambique is low overall, with half of the fields being smaller than 0.2 ha, and 78% smaller than 0.5 ha. Field size varies with accessibility, population density, and forest cover change, suggesting the presence of diverse actors, including semi-subsistence smallholder farms, medium-scale commercial farms, and large-scale farming operations. Our results suggest that field size is a key indicator relating to the socio-economic and environmental outcomes of agriculture and their trade-offs.

The Gilé National Park (PNAG for its acronym in Portuguese), located in central Mozambique is one of the most important protected areas in the country. It is one of the last remnants of intact Miombo woodlands, providing critical habitat for endemic biodiversity. Fires are an important ecological factor in Miombo, but changes in fire regimes may compromise the stability of this ecosystem and thus, the conservation value of PNAG. This study assessed fire patterns and mapped fire risk in support of adaptive management in the PNAG. We investigated Miombo fire regime over 23 years (2001 to 2023) in terms of return interval, frequency, temporal distribution, spatial density and intensity, extent, and severity, by using two Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite products (MCD14ML active fire; MCD64A1 burned area). Primary risk drivers were established and spatial fire likelihood mapped, using the Random Forest algorithm. Analysis revealed pronounced late dry season burning (August–October) affecting approximately 60% of the PNAG annually, especially in central-northern and eastern landscapes. Remarkably, 88% of the park maintains a 1-to-2-year fire return interval across the entire fire season (May–October) while only 7% maintains return frequencies of 3-to-4-year cycles. The latter is important for maintaining Miombo ecosystem functionality. Medium to medium–high fire severity covered 98% of the total fire extension. Climate-related drivers and hunting activities were identified as key fire initiators, especially in central areas of the park. The findings demonstrate an urgent need for spatially differentiated fire management action through prescribed burning to maintain PNAG’s ecological resilience and conservation value.

Miombo forest in Gilé National Park (PNAG), central Mozambique have significant habitat for endemic biodiversity but face mounting pressure from recurrent fire disturbance. This study assessed fire patterns and mapped fire risk in support of adaptive management in the PNAG. We investigated miombo fire regime over 23 years (2001 to 2023) in terms of return intervals, frequency, temporal distribution, spatial density and intensity, area extent, and severity, by using two MODIS satellite products (MCD14ML active fire; MCD64A1 burned area). Primary risk drivers were established and spatial fire likelihood mapped, using Random forest algorithm. Analysis revealed pronounced late dry-season burning (August-October) affecting approximately 60% of PNAG annually, especially in central-northern and eastern landscapes. Remarkably, 88% of the park maintain 1 to 2 year fire return interval while only 7% maintains return frequencies of 3 to 4 year cycles, important for maintaining Miombo ecosystem functionality. Medium to medium-high fire severity covered 98% of total fire areas. Climate-related drivers and hunting activities were identified as key fire imitators, peaking in central areas in terms of likelihood. Findings demonstrate urgent need for spatially-differentiated fire governance incorporating strategic zoning and prescribed burning to maintain PNAG's ecological resilience and conservation value.

Agricultural activities, charcoal production and commercial logging are the primary drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Miombo woodlands (MWs), yet the abandonment of these activities can allow for ecological recovery. While previous research has largely focused on MWs recovery following agricultural disturbances, the regrowth pathways and ecological impacts of charcoal production and logging remain poorly understood. This study fills that gap by analysing vegetation recovery within a common framework across smallholder agriculture, charcoal production and commercial logging in central Mozambique, and examining the environmental and socio‐economic factors that influence recovery across these disturbance types. Using remote sensing data, we identified three sites for each disturbance type and conducted forest inventories in abandoned lands on trees with diameter greater than 5 cm, applying a chronosequence approach, along with undisturbed MWs. We assessed vegetation structure parameters, species diversity metrics and conducted plot pairwise similarity comparisons for each disturbance type. A generalised additive model was used to evaluate the effects of abandonment age and external factors on vegetation structure, species diversity and composition. Our findings show that MWs recover more quickly in vegetation structure (in 30 years) than in species diversity and composition. Species composition trajectories differed among disturbance types, with Sørensen dissimilarity showing significant temporal change only in charcoal stands; although species turnover and nestedness remained largely stable over time, turnover contributed more to overall compositional dissimilarity than nestedness, suggesting that shifts were more associated with species replacement than richness differences. Species richness and the effective number of species showed no significant change with abandonment age across any disturbance type. Charcoal and logging stands displayed greater species diversity convergence compared to agricultural stands. External factors, such as proximity to temporary rivers, villages and secondary roads, as well as fire frequency, influenced recovery, with impacts varying based on disturbance type. Our findings emphasise the complexity of Miombo woodland recovery and highlight the need for long‐term monitoring and management to support the resilience of these ecosystems in the face of ongoing disturbances. Future research should focus on longer timeframes, larger sample sizes, and include the natural regeneration to better understand the mechanisms behind vegetation recovery in disturbed MWs.

Seasonally dry tropical woodlands are vital for climate change mitigation, yet their full potential in carbon storage remains poorly understood. This is largely due to the lack of species-specific allometric models tailored to these ecosystems. To address this knowledge gap, this study aimed to develop species-specific biomass allometric equations (BAEs) for accurately estimating both above- and below-ground biomass of Colophospermum mopane (J.Kirk ex Benth.) J.Kirk ex J. Léonard, and to assess the feasibility of incorporating total height, estimated using height-diameter (H-D) equations, to improve the accuracy of biomass estimation in Mozambique. We applied a destructive method and felled 120 C. mopane trees in Mabalane and Tambara Districts. We measured breast height diameter (D), total height (H) and biomass of each component (roots, stem, branches and leaves). We fitted three BAE models using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression and fifteen H-D models using nonlinear regression. A validation procedure checked the applicability of all models. We conducted a forest inventory with 78 temporary clusters, each consisting of four 100 m x 20 m plots, to estimate the average AGB and BGB of C. mopane using the best-fitting BAE and H-D model. We also compared the best BAE of C. mopane with existing locally developed species-specific BAEs. The study found that the model including the interaction of D² and H, performed better than the model with separate D and H. However, models with D and H performed similarly to models with D alone. The Power model with two parameters and the HossfeldIV model with three parameters exhibited the best performance among the H-D models. Integrating the H from the H-D model into the BAE for AGB estimation can improve the efficiency and reliability of biomass estimation from forest inventory data. This research is timely as there is an urgent need to improve the accuracy of carbon counting to support climate change goals and sustainable management of Mopane woodland given their spatial extent in southern Africa.

Mountain landscape, described as a global biodiversity hotspot due to high endemism, is threatened by land-use change, including management and modification of vegetation. However, there is little knowledge about how road and land use affect plant diversity in mountains landscapes, particularly in southern Africa. Previous studies have studied the impact of the road or land use on plant species diversity separately and have concentrated on a single plant species. Here we compare the plant diversity of regenerated trees, shrubs, herbaceous plant, and grasses among Forest, Fallow, Agriculture, and Road in the Moribane Forest Reserve (MFR), in Eastern Chimanimani Mountain landscape in Mozambique. To assess how land-use change affects plant diversity, we conducted 45 transects along the roadside and randomly established 24 quadrats in the Agriculture fields and Fallow and 26 quadrats in the pristine Forest. In each transect and quadrats, we recorded the occurrence of four plant life forms (regenerated trees, shrubs, herbaceous, and grass species) to determine the alpha and beta-diversity across land-uses, and we assessed the invasiveness of each species. Species composition varied significantly among the land-uses types. Roadside had higher species diversity and the highest number of invasive species (138 total species of all plant life forms; 31 invasive species), following Agriculture (72; 30), Fallow (81; 20), and Forest (78; 19). There was no similarity in species between roadsides and other land-uses. Furthermore, roadside recorded the highest average species turnover for all plant life forms following Agriculture, Forest, and Fallow. Among the plants, the most important life form was herbaceous with 143 species, following grass with 86 species, shrubs with 86, and regenerated trees with 65 species. The land-use pattern makes the landscape more diversified in the study area and, as a result, increase the plant species richness and diversity by species replacement. This study is unique in collecting and analyzing data on different plant life forms on roadsides linked with a range of different land-use types within a small region of a mountain landscape in southern Africa.

The path for bringing millions of people out of poverty in Africa is likely to coincide with important changes in land use and land cover (LULC). Envisioning the different possible pathways for agricultural, economic and social development, and their implications for changes in LULC, ecosystem services and society well-being, will improve policy-making. This paper presents a case that uses a multi-scale participatory scenario planning method to facilitate the understanding of the complex interactions between LULC change and the wellbeing of the rural population and their possible future evolution in Mozambique up to 2035. Key drivers of change were identified: the empowerment of civil society, the effective application of legislation and changes in rural technologies (e.g., information and communications technologies and renewable energy sources). Three scenarios were constructed: one characterized by the government promoting large investments; a second scenario characterized by the increase in local community power and public policies to promote small and medium enterprises; and a third, intermediate scenario. All three scenarios highlight qualitative large LULC changes, either driven by large companies or by small and medium scale farmers. The scenarios have different impact in wellbeing and equity, the first one implying a higher rural to urban area migration. The results also show that the effective application of the law can produce different results, from assuring large international investments to assuring the improvement of social services like education, health care and extension services. Successful application of these policies, both for biodiversity and ecosystem services protection, and for the social services needed to improve the well-being of the Mozambican rural population, will have to overcome significant barriers.