Richard T. Gudaj

Commercial conflict has limited American soy exports to the biggest market, China, providing Russian farmers an opportunity to enter the Chinese market. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture and the Russian Soybean Union have established a program to promote soybean production and processing. Chinese farmers in the Russian Far East (RFE) and high profits from soybean production make new opportunities and challenges for local farmers. We analyze how the soybean development plan has fared so far and the role of Chinese farmers in Russia. The current Sino‐Russian agricultural agreement has little chance of increasing soybean production because of tariffs, unstable regulatory policies, and restrictions on seeds and labor. The scope of the soybean industry can be developed if Russian authorities will take a more liberal approach in Chinese‐Russian cooperation.

Chinese farmers are actively engaged in the economy of the Russian Far East. We used an econometric model to analyze panel data on the socioeconomic impact on local residents of Chinese farmers and workers in the Russian Far East (RFE). Proximity to Chinese farms and sales to Chinese retailers increases the well‐being, the farm income, and the food costs of Russian rural households. The same factors raise land prices through increased competition, reduce the wages of Russian workers and the number of family members working on Russian farms, increase the number of full‐time jobs for farm workers, lower yields of corn and wheat, and raise yields of potatoes and rice. Thus, the effects of the Chinese presence on rural Russian households varies with the makeup of the household, the amount of land it owns and leases, and the number of household members who work on other farms. Cooperation with Chinese farmers and retailers plays an important role in determining the ability of the rural areas of the RFE to develop sustainably.

The availability of large areas of uncultivated land in the Russian Far East (RFE) and the close proximity of millions of skilled, landless farmers in northeastern China has created an opportunity for cooperation in developing the eastern frontier of Russia with Chinese technology. Some Russian scientists claim that there is no advanced technology used in Chinese cultivation. Chinese scientists believe that Russian agricultural technology and genetic seed development stopped in the 1960s. Until now, no economic research has been conducted to determine empirically whether technology transfer is feasible. We applied an econometric model to analyze whether Chinese farmers in the RFE have transferred knowledge of leading plant cultivation methods. We find some evidence of improved yields among Russian farmers who communicate with Chinese farmers in the RFE, strongly suggesting that informal technology transfer is taking place.

Chinese originally migrated to the Russian Far East (RFE) to fill a labor shortage on collective farms. In more recent decades, some Chinese migrants have chosen to lease land from Russian farmers to manage their own farms. Rising soybean prices and the trade war between China and the United States have increased demand for land capable of producing soybeans. Thus, Chinese farmers in the RFE compete for land with Russians. The Chinese also contribute positively to local food security by increasing food availability and accessibility. This study uses an econometric model to analyze the impact of Chinese on local land markets in the RFE. Financial support for Russian farmers by the government depresses their demand for land; rising soybean prices and the employment of Chinese farm workers by Russian farmers encourage farm expansion, resulting in higher land prices. Selling farm produce to Chinese merchants increases the amount of land owned, cultivated, and rented by Russian farmers.

China’s international position as a net creditor nation provides it with foreign exchange that it has invested in Asian and African countries. One example is China's investment in the Russian Far East (RFE). Thousands of Chinese agricultural workers have migrated to the RFE in recent decades. They are often welcomed by Russian farmers who face a labor shortage and by local residents who can buy cheap vegetables from them, but there are others who resent their presence in the region as competitors. Our study is the first empirical study of this relationship. Our results demonstrate economic benefits to the Russian households. There are, however, some negative repercussions of Chinese farmers in the RFE, and the governments of both China and Russia need to manage the situation wisely.

This study aims to estimate the value of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting to China’s agricultural sector. This study applies the Weibull distribution to model crop yields under different ENSO phases. Under the framework of Bayesian decision theory, this research pioneers the application of China’s Agricultural Sector Model to translate the yield effects resulting from ENSO variations into economic effects. Results show that ENSO exerts noticeable and heterogeneous effects on crop yields over selected crops across different regions. In addition, ENSO forecasting is useful for farmers’ cropping decisions and positively impacts economic surplus. The findings present that the value of this information is generally positive and rises with improved forecast accuracy, with the value of perfect forecasting estimated to be as substantial as CNY 3168 million. However, the value of ENSO forecasting is relatively small in the context of China’s tremendous agricultural output. This study is the first to evaluate the value of ENSO forecasting to China’s agriculture sector and has critical implications for the promotion of a Chinese ENSO forecast system.