Panagiotis Palaios

Amidst a tense geopolitical environment and a rapidly evolving security landscape, this study investigates the determinants of alliance cohesion within NATO from its founding in 1949, examining both micro (dyadic) cohesion and macro (systemic) cohesion. The analysis employs an original dataset of more than 22,000 observations and introduces a novel operationalization of alliance political cohesion. A central finding outlines the role of trade asymmetry, which is strongly associated with alliance political cohesion. The results indicate that the structure of economic interdependence reflects a hierarchical structure within the alliance, enabling dominant actors to exert influence and sustain alignment through asymmetric dependence. Simultaneously, regime similarity, while it enhances cohesion in the full NATO sample, it is associated with greater divergence in US–ally relations. This pattern reflects the constraining role of domestic political processes, public opinion, and societal preferences in democratic states, which can limit alignment with US strategic choices. Overall, the findings contribute to the political economy of alliances by providing new evidence on how hierarchies, economic structure and political institutions jointly shape alliance behavior.

This case study examines China’s use of informal economic coercion against France during the 2008 Tibet crisis. Drawing on official Chinese statements, trade data, and bilateral agreements, the case study traces events from March 2008 to late 2009 and highlights Beijing’s efforts to enforce political red lines while presenting its actions as a defensive response. Measures included suspending diplomatic engagements, consumer boycotts targeting French companies, and stalled commercial deals. Framed in terms of national sovereignty, these measures illustrate how China leverages trade, market access, and nationalist sentiment to punish target states and deter similar actions by others.

In the present study, we examine the relationship among sovereign yields, temperature and precipitation using a large monthly panel data set, which consists of 20 eurozone members, over the period 1980M1–2023M4. To account for possible asymmetries along the distribution of the climate variables, we assume a quadratic modelling specification and apply various mean panel estimation techniques of heterogeneous coefficients. In the next step, to consider possible non-linearities in the distribution of the dependent variables (sovereign yields), we apply the quantile via moments methodology of Machado and Santos Silva, which accounts for possible cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity. We contribute to the existing literature in two main ways. First, we apply a quantile methodology that provides a more in-depth analysis of the climate effects along the distribution of the sovereign yields, especially in the presence of non-normally distributed data. Second, we find that climate change, as proxied by higher temperatures or lower precipitation (drought), will increase the sovereign risk of all countries, but the magnitude of the impact will be higher for countries that are already characterised by higher sovereign risk levels and/or face extreme weather conditions (hotter countries and/or countries with low levels of precipitation). JEL Codes: C23, G15, H63, Q51, Q54

This paper focuses on developing a utility—maximizing model, which points to an optimal defense budget allocation as well as a relationship between security and growth. We test the validity of our model empirically in the case of Greece and Turkey for the period 1971–2023, considering a set of geopolitical, institutional, and economic variables. Our results indicate that if the level of security attained is inadequate in terms of the threat faced, the economic environment becomes highly uncertain, thus depriving the economy from increasing its GDP. In addition, we point to the need for investment in domestic defense technology and infrastructure, both for facing threats and for promoting economic growth. At the institutional level our results indicate the crucial role of the regime type in smoothing the relationship between the two adversaries. The policy implications derived are based on the close relationship between national security, economic growth, and institutions, indicating the need for economies to invest in their domestic industrial base, in light of the latest technological progress and the multipolar nature of the international system.

Tourism is a critical sector that significantly contributes to the global economy, yet it is highly susceptible to external shocks. This paper examines the impact of geopolitical and climate shocks on tourism inflation across major European tourism destinations (1997M1–2023M12). To the best of our knowledge, no previous studies have systematically addressed how the climate and geopolitical spillover effects asymmetrically influence the transmission dynamics of tourism inflation. We perform Quantile Connectedness, TVP‐VAR extended joint connectedness, and nonparametric locally polynomial quantile regression methodologies that allow us to explain heterogeneous inflation dynamics, offering valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders. Our results show that the information transmission of both geopolitical and climate shocks is asymmetric, but the geopolitical risk is more pronounced. Our findings have substantial policy implications, exposing the chaotic influence of the multipolar international system and climate change, thus dismantling the notion that inflation is purely an economic phenomenon.

This paper aims at assessing asymmetric dynamics among migration preferences and various security and economic factors, focusing on the movements from Syria to Turkey and then to the EU via the Greek sea borders (2010M1−2022M12). We perform an economic analysis by developing a utility model, according to which migration preferences depend on security and employment and empirically test asymmetric responses of migration to corresponding shocks. We contribute to the literature by finding that migration is downwards sticky. Despite that theories of international relations may not be monolithic, the magnitude of security impact on migration implies that the state remains the primary actor responsible for managing this phenomenon, which brings us closer to neo-realism theory of International Relations (IR). Our findings reveal the factors that lead to the downwards stickiness of migration thus contributing to a better understating of the incentives for migration and to the formulation of more efficient policies.

This study delves into the exploration of asymmetries in the field of Digital Economics (DE) and specifically, within the digital construction sector, unraveling intricate relationships that guide its evolutionary journey. To unveil the complex relationship between GDP growth rates and Digital Construction (DC) we leverage the Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI), employing a panel dataset encompassing 27 European Union (EU) countries over the period 2017-2022. As a foundational tool for our empirical analysis, we perform Quantile via Moments regression, thus introducing this novel methodology to digital construction research. The findings reveal a consistent and statistically significant positive impact of DC on GDP growth rates, across the entire spectrum of economic conditions, but the effect is more pronounced at the upper quantiles of output. This result implies that stronger economies can use more efficiently the benefits of the Digital Construction compared to the weaker economies, thus signaling the need of the latter for structural reforms, to improve the integration rate of digitalization in the construction sector. The pronounced influence of the Human Capital component of DC underscores the pivotal role of nurturing human skills to effectively integrate digital construction techniques into infrastructure development, within a collaborative culture.