Armando González-Cabán

The potentially large ecological, economic, and societal impacts of climate change makes it a significant problem of the 21st century. These consequences have led to tremendous development in climate change scenarios and new technologies to increase knowledge on the effect and efficiency of mitigation and adaptation measures. Large fires will occur at a higher rate than currently because of lower fuel moisture content resulting in a lower resistance to burning. This is also evidenced by more extreme fire behavior that contributes to higher economic impacts, suppression difficulties and suppression costs. The economic susceptibility concept integrates a set of economic valuation approaches for valuing timber and non-timber resources, considering the fire behavior, and as a consequence, the net value changes for each resource. Flame length increased by 4.6% to 15.69%, according to the different future climate scenarios. Climate change is expected to cause widespread changes to economic susceptibility and suppression costs because of higher flame length and fire intensity. Therefore, our outcomes show an increase in the economic susceptibility of Córdoba Province in the medium and long term (2041–2070) between 6.05% and 25.99%, respectively. In addition, we have found an increase between 65.67% and 86.73% in suppression costs in the last decade. The digital version of the economic susceptibility model using Geographic Information Systems improves its operational capabilities enhancing also its dynamism and simplicity to accept modifications and predictions revisions.

The purpose of this work is to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for minority (African-American and Hispanic) homeowners in Florida for private and public wildfire risk-reduction programs and also to test for differences in response between the two groups. A random parameter logit and latent class model allowed us to determine if there is a difference in wildfire mitigation program preferences, whether WTP is higher for public or private actions for wildfire risk reduction, and whether households with personal experience and who perceive that they live in higher-risk areas have significantly higher WTP. We also compare Florida minority homeowners’ WTP values with Florida original homeowners’ estimates. Results suggest that Florida minority homeowners are willing to invest in public programs, with African-Americans WTP values at a higher rate than Hispanics. In addition, the highest priority for cost-sharing funds would go to low-income homeowners, especially to cost-share private actions on their own land. These results may help fire managers optimise allocation of scarce cost-sharing funds for public v. private actions.

Traditional uses of the forest (timber, forage) have been giving way to other uses more in demand (recreation, ecosystem services). An observable consequence of this process of forest land use conversion is an increase in more difficult and extreme wildfires. Wildland forest management and protection program budgets are limited, and managers are requesting help in finding ways to objectively assign their limited protection resources based on the intrinsic environmental characteristics of a site and the site’s interrelationship with available firefighting resources and existing infrastructure. A Fire Suppression Priority Index, integrating information on both the potential fire behaviour risk (Potential Fire Behaviour Index) and the fire suppression difficulty (Suppression Difficulty Index), provides managers with fundamental information for strategic planning and development of tactical operations to protect the natural environment. Results in the Córdoba Province, Andalusia’s autonomous region, Spain, showed a statistically significant relationship between wildfire size and all three indices, demonstrating the utility of the methodology to identify and prioritise forest areas for strategic and tactical fire management operations. In addition, the methodology was tested and validated by trained and qualified wildfire management personnel in Chile and Israel, obtaining similar results as in Spain.

Historically, in Spain and most European countries, forest fire budgets have never been subjected to an objective and rigorous economic analysis indicative of the returns on investments in fire management protection programs. Thus far we have witnessed expansive growth of costs without any investment planning. New economic realities and more focussed oversight by regulating organisations are forcing agencies with fire protection responsibilities to formally justify their fire protection budget requests. The fire economics evaluation system described here (SINAMI) is the first attempt by Spain’s National Forest System to help agencies with fire responsibilities perform an economic analysis of their budget requests for fire management and protection. SINAMI uses a marginal analysis and the economic criterion of cost-plus-net-value change (C+NVC) to determine the most efficient program and budget level for fire protection for a simulated fire season. The results are used in establishing strategic fire management plans to respond to historical fire situations. The model also provides information on number of fires and area affected by fire intensity level, as well as the number and type of firefighting resources used through the simulated fire season. The SINAMI model is based on the original structure of the National Fire Management Analysis System developed by the USDA Forest Service, expanded and adapted to Spanish conditions.

Visitor use surveys and water quality data indicates that high visitor use levels of two rivers in Puerto Rico does not appear to adversely affect several water quality parameters. Optimum visitor use to maximize visitor defined satisfaction is a more constraining limit on visitor use than water quality. Our multiple regression analysis suggests that visitor use of about 150 visitors per day yields the highest level of visitor reported satisfaction, a level that does not appear to affect turbidity of the river. This high level of visitor use may be related to the gregarious nature of Puerto Ricans and their tolerance for crowding on this densely populated island. The daily peak visitation model indicates that regulating the number of parking spaces may be the most effective way to keep visitor use within the social carrying capacity.