Michael V. Maciosek

Glucose self-monitoring is critical for type 2 diabetes management among patients using insulin. Combining behavior change theory with classification and regression tree (CART) is a novel data-driven approach to identifying barriers to self-monitoring. Baseline data from non-CGM-using patients in The GluCoCare Study were used to describe barriers to self-monitoring and use of data to inform diabetes self-care ( N = 360). Patterns of barriers that predicted self-monitoring or use of self-monitoring data were also identified. Results showed barriers to self-monitoring were present in each of three Behavior Change Wheel categories: capability (e.g. procedural knowledge), opportunity (e.g. social support), and motivation (e.g. guilt). One example of a CART-identified pattern that predicted high self-monitoring was low guilt, high belief about importance of self-monitoring, low skin irritation, and high procedural knowledge. Future studies should test whether promoting these determinant patterns by addressing specific barriers leads to more self-monitoring and better outcomes.

Introduction: Thirteen Southern and Midwestern states – termed ‘Tobacco Nation’ – have persistently higher smoking rates than other US states. Previous research indicates increased cigarette taxes and tobacco control expenditures (TCE) may mitigate this geographical cigarette smoking...

Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks are of concern among immigrants and refugees settling in affluent host countries. The prevalence of CVD and risk factors among Somali African immigrants to the U.S. has not been systematically studied. Methods In 2015–2016, we surveyed 1156 adult Somalis in a Midwestern metropolitan area using respondent-driven sampling to obtain anthropometric, interview, and laboratory data about CVD and associated risk factors, demographics, and social factors. Results The prevalence of diabetes and low physical activity among men and women was high. Overweight, obesity, and dyslipidemia were also particularly prevalent. Levels of calculated CVD risk across the community were greater for men than women. Conclusion Though CVD risk is lower among Somalis than the general U.S. population, our results suggest significant prevalence of risk factors among Somali immigrants. Comparison with prior research suggests that CVD risks may be increasing, necessitating thoughtful intervention to prevent adverse population outcomes.

Uncontrolled hypertension is a leading contributor to cardiovascular disease. A cluster-randomized trial in 16 primary care clinics showed that 12 months of home blood pressure telemonitoring and pharmacist management lowered blood pressure more than usual care (UC) for 24 months. We report cardiovascular events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, hospitalized heart failure, coronary revascularization, and cardiovascular death) and costs over 5 years of follow-up. In the telemonitoring intervention (TI group, n=228), there were 15 cardiovascular events (5 myocardial infarction, 4 stroke, 5 heart failure, 1 cardiovascular death) among 10 patients. In UC group (n=222), there were 26 events (11 myocardial infarction, 12 stroke, 3 heart failure) among 19 patients. The cardiovascular composite end point incidence was 4.4% in the TI group versus 8.6% in the UC group (odds ratio, 0.49 [95% CI, 0.21–1.13], P =0.09). Including 2 coronary revascularizations in the TI group and 10 in the UC group, the secondary cardiovascular composite end point incidence was 5.3% in the TI group versus 10.4% in the UC group (odds ratio, 0.48 [95% CI, 0.22–1.08], P =0.08). Microsimulation modeling showed the difference in events far exceeded predictions based on observed blood pressure. Intervention costs (in 2017 US dollars) were $1511 per patient. Over 5 years, estimated event costs were $758 000 in the TI group and $1 538 000 in the UC group for a return on investment of 126% and a net cost savings of about $1900 per patient. Telemonitoring with pharmacist management lowered blood pressure and may have reduced costs by avoiding cardiovascular events over 5 years. Registration—: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique identifier: NCT00781365.

Background: High-intensity antitobacco media campaigns are a proven strategy to reduce the harms of cigarette smoking. While buy-in from multiple stakeholders is needed to launch meaningful health policy, the budgetary impact of sustained media campaigns from multiple payer perspectives is unknown.Methods: We estimated the budgetary impact and time to breakeven from societal, all-payer, Medicare, Medicaid and private insurer perspectives of national antitobacco media campaigns in the USA. Campaigns of 1, 5 and 10 years of durations were assessed in a microsimulation model to estimate the 10 and 20-year health and budgetary impact. Simulation model inputs were obtained from literature and both pubic use and proprietary data sets.Results: The microsimulation predicts that a 10-year national smoking cessation campaign would produce net savings of $10.4, $5.1, $1.4, $3.6 and $0.2 billion from the societal, all-payer, Medicare, Medicaid and private insurer perspectives, respectively. National antitobacco media campaigns of 1, 5 and 10-year durations could produce net savings for Medicaid and Medicare within 2 years, and for private insurers within 6–9 years. A 10-year campaign would reduce adult cigarette smoking prevalence by 1.2 percentage points, prevent 23 500 smoking-attributable deaths over the first 10 years. In sensitivity analysis, media campaign costs would be offset by reductions in medical care spending of smoking among all payers combined within 6 years in all tested scenarios.Conclusions: 1, 5 and 10-year antitobacco media campaigns all yield net savings within 10 years from all perspectives. Multiyear campaigns yield substantially higher savings than a 1-year campaign.

Background: The benefits to adults who quit smoking increase over time as former smokers live longer, healthier lives. Youth who never smoke will benefit for decades. Thus, the long-term population effects of tobacco prevention and control policies may be substantial. Yet they are rarely quantified in evaluations of state tobacco control programmes.Methods: Using a microsimulation model, we predicted the benefits to Minnesotans from 2018 to 2037 of having reduced cigarette smoking prevalence from 1998 to 2017. We first simulated the health and economic harms of tobacco that would have occurred had smoking prevalence stayed at 1997 levels. The harms produced by that scenario were then compared with harms in scenarios with smoking declining at observed rates from 1998 to 2017 and either expected declines from 2018 to 2037 or a greater decline to 5% prevalence in 2037.Results: With expected smoking prevalence decreases from 2018 to 2037, Minnesotans will experience 12 298 fewer cancers, 72 208 fewer hospitalisations for cardiovascular disease and diabetes, 31 913 fewer respiratory disease hospitalisations, 14 063 fewer smoking-attributable deaths, $10.2 billion less in smoking-attributable medical expenditures and $9.4 billion in productivity gains than if prevalence had stayed at 1997 levels. These gains are two to four times greater than for the previous 20 years, and would be about 15% higher if Minnesota achieves a 5% adult prevalence rate by 2037.Conclusions: The tobacco control measures implemented from 1998 to 2017 will produce accelerated benefits during 2018–2037 if modest progress in tobacco prevalence rates is maintained.

Tobacco control programs and policies reduce tobacco use and prevent health and economic harms. The majority of tobacco control programs and policies in the United States are implemented at local and state levels. Yet the literature on state-level initiatives reports a limited set of outcomes. To facilitate decision-making that is increasingly focused on costs, we provide estimates of a broader set of measures of the impact of tobacco control policy, including smoking prevalence, disease events, deaths, medical costs, productivity and tobacco tax revenues, using the experience of Minnesota as an example. Using the HealthPartners Institute’s ModelHealth^™: Tobacco MN microsimulation, we assessed the impact of the stream of tobacco control expenditures and cigarette price increases from 1998 to 2017. We simulated 1.3 million individuals representative of the Minnesota population. The simulation estimated that increased expenditures on tobacco control above 1997 levels prevented 38,400 cancer, cardiovascular, diabetes and respiratory disease events and 4,100 deaths over 20 years. Increased prices prevented 14,600 additional events and 1,700 additional deaths. Both the net increase in tax revenues and the reduction in medical costs were greater than the additional investments in tobacco control. Combined, the policies address both short-term and long-term goals to reduce the harms of tobacco by helping adults who wish to quit smoking and deterring youth from starting to smoke. States can pay for initial investments in tobacco control through tax increases and recoup those investments through reduced expenditures on medical care.

Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the potential health and budgetary impacts of implementing a pharmacist-involved team-based hypertension management model in the United States. Research Design: In 2017, we evaluated a pharmacist-involved team-based care intervention among 3 targeted groups using a microsimulation model designed to estimate cardiovascular event incidence and associated health care spending in a cross-section of individuals representative of the US population: implementing it among patients with: (1) newly diagnosed hypertension; (2) persistently (≥1 year) uncontrolled blood pressure (BP); or (3) treated, yet persistently uncontrolled BP—and report outcomes over 5 and 20 years. We describe the spending thresholds for each intervention strategy to achieve budget neutrality in 5 years from a payer’s perspective. Results: Offering this intervention could prevent 22.9–36.8 million person-years of uncontrolled BP and 77,200–230,900 heart attacks and strokes in 5 years (83.8–174.8 million and 393,200–922,900 in 20 years, respectively). Health and economic benefits strongly favored groups 2 and 3. Assuming an intervention cost of $525 per enrollee, the intervention generates 5-year budgetary cost-savings only for Medicare among groups 2 and 3. To achieve budget neutrality in 5 years across all groups, intervention costs per person need to be around $35 for Medicaid, $180 for private insurance, and $335 for Medicare enrollees. Conclusions: Adopting a pharmacist-involved team-based hypertension model could substantially improve BP control and cardiovascular outcomes in the United States. Net cost-savings among groups 2 and 3 make a compelling case for Medicare, but favorable economics may also be possible for private insurers, particularly if innovations could moderately lower the cost of delivering an effective intervention.