Philip Mayer

In order to achieve the commonly agreed emission reduction target, the European Commission called upon the member states to submit National Energy and Climate Plans to ensure increased transparency for the respective national targets and strategies. An analysis of these plans shows that some member states have declared ambitious emission reductions targets, as well as technology-specific phaseout policies in the power sector. A transformation to a climate-friendly system requires considerable investment, the question arises if there are benefits to be in the vanguard. We find that countries may have an incentive to outperform in the development of a low-carbon electricity system.

Several European countries plan to phase out coal-fired power plants in order to reach their greenhouse gas abatement targets. Additionally, the phase-out will bring about so-called ancillary effects or co-effects. In our study, we focus on the co-effects induced in the countries that export coal to Europe. Furthermore, we examine the ancillary effects imposed on China as a major supplier of technologies (like solar energy technologies) that will replace coal-fired power plants. Using a combination of an input-output model, econometric analysis and employing the concept of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals, we assess impacts of coal phase-out policies on environmental, economic, and societal dimensions. Our results show that despite negative impacts on income and employment in coal-exporting countries, a phase-out of coal-fired power plants is linked with multiple positive effects. In particular, we observe improvements in water management and biodiversity conservation, reduced release of pollutants, and improvements on a societal level. However, even if we consider a reduction in the use of coal in the European steel production sector as an additional challenge, these positive impacts on coal exporting countries remain rather small. The same applies to the effects we observe for China.

Energy scenarios currently in use for policy advice are based on a number of simplifying assumptions. This includes, in particular, the linear extrapolation of trends. However, this approach ignores the fact that central variables were highly dynamic in the past. For an assessment of energy futures and the specification of measures, novel approaches are necessary which can implement non-linear trends. In this paper, we show how cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis can be applied to map dynamic trends. Using a small CIB model, we highlight the need for novel approaches in the creation and evaluation of energy futures and the possible contribution of CIB analysis.

The UK’s exit from the European Union (EU) has potential ramifications for the country’s electricity sector, given its increasing interlinkage with other EU electricity systems. Brexit could hamper the development toward higher market integration and the realization of new interconnector projects. Moreover, a fall in the value of the Pound, resulting from Brexit in the medium term, could also affect the electricity trading structure. Combining a European electricity market model and a multi-criteria decision analysis tool, this study assesses the implications of Brexit for the electricity market of Great Britain (hereafter GB) for 2030, from the perspective of (i) political decision makers, (ii) electricity consumers, and (iii) producers. Results indicate that the implications of Brexit depend on the future development of the GB electricity system and on the objectives of the respective stakeholders. Possible opportunities brought by Brexit under a low-carbon trajectory contrast with greater challenges and tradeoffs between stakeholders under alternative power system development paths. Despite increased British autonomy in energy and climate matters, there remains interdependency between British and EU energy policy.