Mu Li

The spatial zoning of cultivated land is a core aspect of territorial spatial planning and an important basis for implementing differentiated cultivated land protection policies. To provide theoretical guidance for the future direction of the protection and utilization of cultivated land in Shandong Province, this paper built a theoretical framework for the spatial zoning of cultivated land based on the trinity of quantity, quality, and ecology and formed an indicator system for the spatial zoning of cultivated land based on these three elements. Based on the analysis and grading results of spatial zoning indicators of cultivated land, hierarchical clustering analysis was performed on 133 county-level administrative units, and then the cultivated land resources of Shandong Province were divided into four types of zones: Key protection zones, comprehensive promotion zones, multifunctional utilization zones, and ecological utilization zones. Future development directions in relation to the protection and utilization of cultivated land in each type of zone were proposed. The results showed that the spatial zoning of cultivated land based on the trinity of quantity, quality, and ecology has important theoretical and practical significance for guiding the protection and utilization of cultivated land in Shandong Province and other regions.

Under the context of rapid urbanization, how to use construction land resources under the dual pressure of socioeconomic growth and cultivated land protection is critical to resource utilization and sustainable development. Thus, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the relationship between socioeconomic change and construction land expansion. Based on decoupling theory, this study constructed a two-dimensional model to analyze the population-construction land and economy (non-agricultural GDP)-construction land decoupling status and characteristics in Hebei Province at the county level. Then, a decoupling-based construction land-use zoning model was built to explore construction land saving and intensive utilization strategies in different construction land-use zones. The results show that (1) the construction land area, population and non-agricultural GDP in Hebei Province increased in the study period, but there were spatial differences in the hot areas of growth. (2) In the population-construction land dimension, the growth of the population and construction land in Hebei Province was generally in an uncoordinated state. According to the results of the calculation, the samples of counties whose relationships between population and construction land were uncoordinated accounted for 75.76% of all counties, and 68.94% of all counties demonstrated weak decoupling. (3) In the economy-construction land dimension, 89.39% of all counties in Hebei Province had coordinated relationships between economy and construction land change. The expansion negative decoupling was the main decoupling state in Hebei Province in this dimension. (4) On the basis of two-dimensional decoupling type results, the construction land-use in Hebei was divided into four zones: “Population–economy dual coordinated”, “population unilateral coordinated”, “economy unilateral coordinated” and “population–economy dual uncoordinated”. The results showed that the “economy unilateral coordinated” zone included 68.18% of all counties. According to the characteristics of different construction land-use zones, this study provided various regulatory and control countermeasures and suggestions to improve the efficiency of construction land-use and to promote sustainable development in Hebei Province.

Food security is the basis of social stability and development. Maintaining sufficient amounts of arable land is essential for China’s food security. In this paper, we consider the relationship between arable land demand to grain demand and production capacity. The changes in national population, grain production, and consumption from 2000 to 2015 are analyzed. Then, we forecast the respective possible changes in the future and accordingly forecast the arable land demand in different possible situations. The results show that the pressure to maintain sufficient amounts of arable land in 2030 may be greater than that in 2040.The higher pressure is due to larger population and lower production capacity. To ensure food security in China, we insist on maintaining 120 million ha of arable land, the “red line” for food security, and improve the arable land productivity to ensure domestic production and self-sufficiency. In addition, residents should be guided to cultivate sound food consumption habits in order to control per capita grain demand. Lastly, we should also make full use of international resources and markets to relieve the pressure on domestic resources and environments.