Ahmad Wagdy

Drought is a slow-onset phenomenon that evolves over a season or even years. Drought affects people more than any other natural disaster due to its widespread and significant negative impacts. Population growth and associated water demand add further stress on water resources, especially in periods of drought. Drought indices represent a single value resulting from processing a considerable amount of data. These indices provide a short message to stakeholders to adapt water resource management strategies. Since drought results from interconnected phenomena, designing a composite drought index that includes several drought indices can accurately capture drought events. Drought assessment over a large-scale basin (e.g., the Blue Nile) is a challenging objective that has not been deeply tackled before except for small portions of the basin. This paper assessed droughts over the whole basin by evaluating meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought indices. The calculated drought indices (Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and standardized soil moisture index (SSI)) in addition to the development of a new standardized evapotranspiration index (sETI) are jointly integrated into a novel composite drought index for the Blue Nile (BNI). The optimal weights for SPI, SRI, sETI, and SSI were 0.33, 0.26, 0.2, and 0.19, respectively, in the designed BNI.

The study of water balance is considered here as a way to assess the performance of regional climate models and examine model uncertainty and as an approach to understanding regional hydrology, especially interactions between atmospheric and hydrological processes. We studied the atmospheric and terrestrial water balance over the Eastern Nile Basin (ENB) region using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. The model performance in simulating precipitation and surface air temperature is assessed by comparing the model output with the data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Center dataset for precipitation and from the University of Delaware for temperature. The results show that the simulated and observed values correlate well. In terms of water balance, the study region was found to be a sink for moisture, where the atmospheric convergence is negative during most of the time. Most of the precipitation originates from moisture fluxes from outside the domain, and the contribution of local evapotranspiration to precipitation is limited, with small values for the moisture recycling ratios year-round. The atmospheric moisture content does not show significant monthly or annual variation. The results indicate that the terrestrial water storage varies seasonally, with negative fluxes during most of the year, except June, July, and August, when most of the precipitation occurs.