Shangfeng Li

Snow disasters are severe natural hazards in Jilin Province, China. This research formulated a holistic risk assessment framework which integrates the factors of hazardousness, sensitivity, vulnerability, and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity. Using multi-source data and Geographic Information System (GIS), we evaluated snow disaster risks through 15 selected indicators weighted by the entropy method. Results show high-risk areas primarily concentrated in southeastern mountainous regions, including Jingyu, Fusong, Changbai, and Linjiang. Disaster sensitivity decreases from southeast to northwest, while high-vulnerability zones appear in central urban areas like Changchun. The comprehensive risk generally declines from the southeastern mountains to the northwestern plains. This assessment model effectively reflects snow disaster formation mechanisms and spatial patterns, providing scientific support for disaster prevention and emergency management in Jilin Province.

Summer in the East Asian monsoon region is characterized by heavy rainfall and high temperature. Its onset, depicted by monsoon rainfall and/or airflow as well as surface air temperature, has been well documented. However, the onset of summer season is rarely addressed in northern East Asia (NEA) around the northern edge of the East Asian summer monsoon. This study investigates the feature, mechanism, and variability of the summer onset in NEA based on the ERA-5 reanalysis dataset for 1979–2020. Results show that, in climatology, the onset of summer in NEA occurs in pentad 31 when the spring-to-summer warming process is decelerated at the highest rate. The change in the warming rate is mainly attributed to a decrease in the diabatic heat, mostly surface sensible heat, and temperature advection plays a small role. After the onset of summer, regional low-level northwesterly winds are weakened, and a local NEA cyclonic low forms. The latter, coupled with monsoon southerly airflow to the south, advects more moisture into NEA and increases regional rainfall. Furthermore, a temperature threshold of 17 °C, the climatological regional mean surface air temperature in pentad 31, was proposed to depict summer onset in NEA. Based on the temperature threshold, the year-to-year variability of summer onset timing in NEA is revealed, ranging from pentad 29 (late May) to 34 (middle June), with the standard deviation of 1.2 pentads. It advanced by 0.6 pentads, on average, after the late 1990s. This study provides a new method to objectively quantify the timing of summer onset in East Asia, which is thermodynamically explainable and may help us to depict and monitor summer onset in different latitudes and topography.