Mostafa E. AboElsoud

This empirical study undertakes a rigorous examination of the environmental sustainability impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on its member countries. Employing a robust difference-in-difference quasi-natural experimental technique, our analysis spans a panel of 69 countries, covering the years from 1990 to 2022. Our primary metric for assessing ecological strain is the total Ecological Footprint consumption (EFP), measured in global hectares, which encapsulates the ecological exhaustion resulting from economic activities. This study not only contributes to the growing body of literature on the BRI’s economic, social, and environmental impacts but also distinguishes itself by providing experimental evidence of its environmental repercussions 10 years post-initiative commencement for member countries and 4 years for African countries in which the majority joined in 2018. Our findings reveal a significant increase in ecological footprint consumption among the BRI member countries after 2014, implying that participation in the BRI has contributed to heightened ecological depletion in these nations. Additionally, our analysis highlights the same impact for African countries, where ecological footprint consumption substantially escalated after joining the BRI in 2018. This pivotal discovery calls for the attention of not only the Chinese government, a driving force behind the BRI, but also all member countries partaking in this international collaboration. It signals a potential ecological deficit and future productivity impairment, urging stakeholders to reconsider and address the environmental ramifications of their endeavors.

The primary objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between finance and economic growth in a cohort of 16 economies within the MENA region spanning a four-decade period from 1980 to 2021. This study employs panel unit root and panel co-integration analyses to investigate this long-term nexus. The fully modified and dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) approaches are utilized to estimate the long-run coefficients. The findings underscore the existence of cross-sectional interdependence among these nations. Furthermore, Pedroni’s panel co-integration research robustly supports the idea of a long-term co-integrating relationship between financial development and economic growth. Our long-run panel estimations reveal a positive and statistically significant impact of financial development on GDP per capita income growth. In addition to this broad analysis, this paper conducts a detailed time-series examination focused on a specific country to validate the robustness of the results. These findings further substantiate the favorable influence of financial development on income growth in the majority of MENA nations. Notably, private sector participation in these economies is found to be alarmingly low. As a result, a significant policy implication of this study underscores the urgent need for policymakers to prioritize measures conducive to private sector expansion. Moreover, enhancing financial inclusion, addressing the crowd-out effect, and tackling non-performing loans are critical areas requiring attention within the MENA region. Furthermore, our research highlights the potential benefits of developing stock markets as part of an optimal strategy to enhance both economic and income growth rates. In conclusion, this study contributes valuable insights into the finance–growth nexus in the MENA region, emphasizing the importance of financial development as a driver of economic prosperity and the need for targeted policy initiatives to support private sector growth and financial stability.

This study examines the relationship between government spending, specifically military spending, government spending on health, government spending on education, and economic growth in Egypt over the period from 1980 to 2021. The paper utilizes a Granger causality test to detect the directional relationship between spending components and GDP growth. Furthermore, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, including error-correction models, was established to determine the long- and short-term relationships among these variables. The study contrasts Wagner’s versus Keynes’s views of the government spending relationship with economic growth, with a greater emphasis on Keynes’s argument for military spending enhancing economic growth. While previous studies have investigated the relationship between aggregate spending and economic growth from a single or two-way direction of causality, the present study contributes to the literature by exploring the possibility of military spending crowding out spending on health and education and detecting this causality and dynamic relationship. The empirical results support the Keynesian view of causality from all government spending components to economic growth. However, short- and long-term analyses revealed a negative relationship between military spending and economic growth. Moreover, the short-term impact of government spending on education and health on economic growth is negative, but positive in the long-term. Finally, the causality test revealed that military spending influences health and education spending. Additionally, a unidirectional relationship exists between military spending and health expenditure, which requires further research. The policy implication of this study shows that although spending is exogenous to economic growth, it does not align with the Keynesian view of inducing growth. Instead, spending has negative current and future implications for economic development.

This research empirically investigated the effectiveness of the interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed) on managing the subprime mortgage crisis. The study employed the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) to analyze the stability of the Fed’s monetary policy, thereby providing an alternative analysis tool. Correlation analysis results showed a strong positive and statistically significant relationship between Fed funds rate and the labor market, a strong negative and statistically significant relationship between Fed funds rate and the housing market, and a strong negative and statistically significant relationship between Fed funds rate and price stability. In contrast, results of the ARDL model bounds test for cointegration indicated that house price index (HPI), labor market, and price stability were cointegrated, hence exhibiting a long-run relationship with Fed funds rate. This research demonstrates that additional empirical studies using new techniques are required to reevaluate the Fisher effect and expand the understanding of the mechanism between interest rates and inflation. This issue is extremely important, particularly for countries such as the U.S., the UK adapting inflation targeting policy using interest rates as an operational target.

Albania has experienced a rapid transition from a centrally planned economy to a mixed economy since the fall of communism in 1989. Policy changes, trade liberalization, and privatization have come about at a rapid pace, allowing foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade to become key components of Albania’s economy. Against this backdrop, this study investigates the relationships among FDI, trade, and economic growth in Albania. Annual time-series data were obtained from the World Bank. Then, the following econometric tests were performed on the variables representing FDI inflows, exports, and GDP as proxies for FDI, trade, and economic growth: the unit root test; the unit root test with a structural break; Johansen cointegration analysis; the error correction model; and the Granger causality test. The results revealed a long-term relationship between FDI, trade, and economic growth. The Granger causality tests found unidirectional causality. Economic growth brought about exports and FDI in the short term but not vice versa. In conclusion, policymakers need to design policies that promote technology-based, export-promoting FDI to meet the needs of the economy and develop specialized sectors that are competitive in the global market. Furthermore, the salient takeaway is that the penetration of export markets should be promoted as much as the furtherance of FDI.

Purpose: This study aims to better understand the phenomenon of corruption in Tunisia in relation to its impact on economic development. The period of study is 1995 to 2014. The auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is adopted to examine the existence of a long-term relationship between the above-mentioned variables and also the direct and indirect consequences of corruption on economic development in Tunisia.Design/methodology/approach: The study uses a modern econometric technique to estimating the long-term relationship (e.g. the co-integration) between corruption and economic development; using this technique also allows us to investigate the impact of corruption on economic growth.Findings: The empirical results show that corruption has a negative effect on per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in Tunisia for the period under review. This effect is described as a direct effect of corruption in the long term; specifically, declines are observed in per capita GDP, over the long run, by almost 1 per cent, following a 1 per cent increase in the level of corruption. The results also show that corruption has indirect effects via transmission channels, such as investment in physical capital, which is positively significant in the presence of corruption. The same observation is made at the level of government expenditure during the previous year, while for those of the current year, the coefficient becomes negative but not significant. With respect to human capital, the impact of corruption on education expenditures is insignificant.Originality/value: The paper begins with an overview of previous literature in this area. Given the nature of corruption and the differences in the meanings attributed to it, from one country to another and from one culture to another, the paper moves on to study the impact of corruption in Tunisia as a case study for one country with one socio-cultural environment. The authors then propose several methods and possible solutions, which could be implemented to deal with this problem.

This study examines and evaluates the dynamic causality relationship between immigration, unemployment, wages and GDP per capita in host countries with a focus on Australia. Previous research has indicated that the economic impact of immigration is significant; nonetheless, its effect on the labour market being positive or negative is inconclusive. This study uses a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to examine the dynamic short- and long-run nexus between these variables in Australia over the period 1980–2016. The paper provides clear evidence to policy makers on the positive spillover effect of immigration policies developed by the Australian government.

This is an exploratory study that aims to answer the question of whether and to what extent regional media are influential in shaping political awareness and its role in influencing public opinion, especially that of young people. We examined regional media in Egypt, more precisely in the Suez Canal Region. To ensure the validity of our results, we deployed a number of different data collection methods: the collection, analysis, and integration of quantitative and qualitative research. The results reveal that regional media have the potential to contribute effectively in raising youths' political awareness of the public policy‐making process. The recommendations specified are the elimination of red tape, governmental bureaucracy, and centralization in the management of regional radio and television is required; also necessary are financial independence and the restructuring of the organizational hierarchy of all state‐run regional media.Related Articles: Antwi‐Boateng, Osman. 2015. “No Spring in Africa: How Sub‐Saharan Africa has Avoided the Arab Spring Phenomenon.” Politics & Policy 43 (5): 754‐784. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12129Khodr, Hiba, and Isabella Ruble. 2013. “Energy Policies and Domestic Politics in the MENA Region in the Aftermath of the Arab Upheavals: The Cases of Lebanon, Libya, and KSA.” Politics & Policy 41 (5): 656‐689. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/polp.12033.xSarquís, David J. 2012. “Democratization after the Arab Spring: The Case of Egypt's Political Transition.” Politics & Policy 40 (5): 871‐903. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2012.00381.xRelated Media: Bonney, Victoria. 2018. “How Social Media is Shaping our Political Future.” TEDx Talks. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Kd99IIWJUw&t=34sPainter, David. 2014. “Social Media and Political Campaigns – Youth Voting; Positive Messaging.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxE2OGYhVvo