Flavio Roberto Arroyo Morocho

This study examines future CO2 emissions scenarios for Ecuador by 2050, considering the interrelationships among energy supply, energy demand, and economic growth. Using a system dynamics modeling approach, three scenarios were developed: a Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, an optimistic national policy scenario (ESCN1), and a global trends scenario (ESCN2). The model was calibrated and validated using historical data from 2000 to 2015 and then applied to simulate the long-term behavior of CO2 emissions associated with final energy consumption across six key economic sectors. The results indicate that, under the BAU and ESCN1 scenarios, both energy demand and CO2 emissions are projected to increase significantly, driven by continued dependence on fossil fuels. In contrast, the ESCN2 scenario, aligned with international sustainability trends and policy frameworks, suggests a potential reduction in emissions by 2050 through a more diversified energy mix and improvements in energy efficiency.

Product design strategies play a pivotal role in advancing responsible production and consumption by enabling the transition toward more sustainable industrial practices. In this context, the rapid evolution of technology and artificial intelligence is fostering the development of innovative and sustainability-oriented strategies, which are increasingly embedded in the early stages of the design process, thereby facilitating the transformation and optimisation of contemporary industrial systems. This scoping review presents advances in product design strategies that promote responsible production and consumption, along with the impacts of their implementation, the associated challenges and limitations, and future perspectives. This manuscript was prepared according to the PRISMA^® guidelines, using scientific literature from databases and repositories such as Scopus, Web of Science, ScienceDirect, and Taylor & Francis. Document selection was conducted by two observers, yielding a Cohen’s Kappa coefficient of 0.840. A total of 147 articles were included for reference information extraction. The product design process plays a crucial role in promoting more sustainable production and guiding responsible consumption habits, as it has proven effective in reducing resource use and waste generation from a life cycle perspective. However, its impact also depends on human-related factors such as perceptions, habits, levels of trust, and usage conditions, highlighting the interaction between product design and consumer behaviour.

The growing demand for sustainable materials has driven significant interest in composites reinforced with organic fibers, due to their mechanical performance, availability, and reduced environmental impact. This study investigates the mechanical behavior of two composite configurations: a cross-woven fabric and a sandwich-type panel, both made from totora (Schoenoplectus californicus) and low-density polyethylene–aluminum (LDPE–Al). Our experimental results show that the cross-woven variant achieved higher impact resistance (2.51 J), tensile strength (5.82 MPa), and greater deformation capacity (6.76%), making it more suitable for applications requiring energy absorption and flexibility, such as interior cladding and modular furniture. In contrast, the sandwich configuration exhibited superior stiffness (910 MPa), favoring structural panels and low-load roofing uses. This research distinguishes itself by integrating biodegradable totora fibers with recycled LDPE–Al to fabricate sustainable construction components, advancing circular economy principles while addressing limitations in previous composite formulations through improved mechanical balance and application-specific performance.

In Ecuador, the growth of the transportation sector has significantly increased greenhouse gas emissions. According to experts, this sector currently contributes to 49.8% of total greenhouse gas emissions in this country. This poses significant challenges for environmental sustainability, emphasizing the urgent need for effective strategies to mitigate these emissions and promote environmentally friendly practices. Therefore, this study focuses on developing a dynamic simulation of energy scenarios for the year 2035 in the transportation sector, with the goal of transitioning to sustainable mobility, as fossil fuels are the main pollutants in the country. This study proposes system dynamics models using VENSIM 6.0b software to estimate the total energy demand and pollutant emissions in the transportation sector. The results suggest that if Ecuador aligns with global mobility trends and implements public policies promoting the use of electric vehicles, total CO₂ emissions could potentially decrease from 50,161,432 kilobarrels of oil equivalent (kBOE) to 20,589,720 kBOE by the year 2035.

This article describes the results of a study of Ecuador’s energy status, using the system dynamics methodology to model supply, demand and CO₂ emissions scenarios for the year 2030. Primary energy production increased in the different projected scenarios, with oil as the most important source of energy. The increase observed in final energy consumption was mainly associated with the transport and industry sectors. A reduction in energy intensity was projected for the different scenarios, which could be associated with the projected economic growth. The results obtained were used to build a proposal for energy policies aimed at mitigating emissions. The proposed changes to the national energy matrix could be the factors that will contribute most to the achievement of carbon emission reductions projected by the different scenarios; changes in the energy matrix are mainly associated with the development of projects to replace fossil fuels with renewable energies, mainly hydropower.

This article presents a comparative analysis of energy governance with respect to renewable energy sources in Ecuador. The use of renewable energy sources increases energy security and enables countries to achieve their climate mitigation goals. Ecuador’s energy mix is dominated using fossil fuels and produces only 7.8% of its energy supply from renewable energy. The scenario analysis suggests that using the example of international renewable energy policies will achieve sustainable energy development in Ecuador. Relying less on fossil fuels and decentralizing the electricity sector from the use of thermoelectric plants is the great challenge for the country. Using the enormous water potential that Ecuador has and taking advantage of the sources of solar, biomass and wind energy available in the country will reduce the forecast of 60,233.70 KT CO₂ by 2030 that would be reached if current consumption conditions and energy mix are maintained, while designing a long-term energy planning with a greater participation of renewable energies would forecast a CO₂ emission of 41,232.30 KT, that is, a reduction of 31.5% in emissions.

Climate change and global warming are related to the demand for energy, energy efficiency, and CO₂ emissions. In this research, in order to project the trends in final energy demand, energy intensity, and CO₂ emission production in Ecuador during a period between 2000 and 2030, a model has been developed based on the dynamics of the systems supported by Vensim simulation models. The energy matrix of Ecuador has changed in recent years, giving more importance to hydropower. It is conclusive that, if industrialized country policies or trends on the use of renewable energy and energy efficiency were applied, the production of CO₂ emissions by 2030 in Ecuador would reach 42,191.4 KTCO₂, a value well below the 75,182.6 KTCO₂ that would be seen if the current conditions are maintained. In the same way, by 2030, energy intensity would be reduced to 54% compared to the beginning of the simulation period.

The structure of Ecuador's energy matrix over the past 15 years has varied, but in general, the three dominant sources of energy in the country are: oil, hydroelectricity and biomass. In recent years, hydro energy has had a great boost with the construction of important hydroelectric projects, which has allowed to achieve important generation of energy from renewable sources. A system dynamics model evaluates the scenarios of Ecuador's energy model. The analysis describes the relationship between dynamic factors, such as policies, energy dependence and demand. National governmental political scenarios and global trends mark the way forward in search of reduction of energy consumption, energy efficiency and CO2 emissions mitigation. The results forecast future scenarios and trends in the supply and demand of energy and CO2 emissions projected until 2030.Keywords: CO2, Emissions, energy demand, Energy PoliciesJEL Classifications: Q48, Q58, O100 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.7132

La Economía Circular es un modelo de negocio que se basa en el reciclaje, la reutilización y la reducción de los recursos naturales, que, a partir de la revolución industrial, las empresas han creado una gran cantidad de productos, que promueven el consumo y se generan residuos destinados a la contaminación ambiental sin un posterior tratamiento. Se analizan los principales países que están tomando medidas al respecto y brindando un ejemplo de mejora al promover dicho modelo de economía, tomando en cuenta factores de diseño e innovación en la creación de productos. En el Ecuador se están llevando a cabo programas de participación más activa en el conocimiento y aplicación de la Economía Circular, donde el reciclaje de residuos se empieza a tomar conciencia en los hogares e instituciones encargadas de las políticas de aplicación sustentable.

El presente artículo muestra la importancia de la Economía Circular en la actualidad y como esta se debe implementar en las empresas de la ciudad de Quito para construir un cambio radical en nuestro sistema económico y en nuestro medioambiente. Los últimos 150 años de evolución industrial han estado dominados por un modelo de producción y consumo lineal, en donde los productos/bienes son producidos a partir de materias primas, después son vendidos, utilizados y finalmente desechados como residuos. Frente a la actual economía global y el aumento de evidencias que apuntan a la creciente escasez y sobreexplotación de recursos, nace la necesidad de la búsqueda de un nuevo modelo económico (negocio). La economía circular presenta un cambio radical para lograr una economía sustentable para la sociedad, priorizando el cuidado y el uso de recursos, reduciendo el impacto ambiental que generamos. Finalmente se analiza la situación actual de la industria ecuatoriana las cuales buscan cambiar de un modelo lineal a un modelo circular, procurando minimizar riesgos, costos e impactos ambientales.