Ewa Lewicka

Оффициальный сайт сборника научных трудов "Геотехническая механика", ИГТМ НАН Украины Official site Collected Scientific Papers “Geo-Technical Mechanics” (the Journal) is issued by the M.S. Polyakov Institute of Geotechnical Mechanics under the National Academy of Science of Ukraine.

This work is an attempt to determine the scale of threats to the mineral security of Poland in the area of non-energy raw materials resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In particular, it aims to identify those industries whose proper functioning may be threatened in the face of the limited supply of raw materials from three directions – Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. An element of the analysis was also the indication of possible alternative sources of the supply of these raw materials. For this purpose, the directions of imports to Poland of about 140 non-energy raw materials in 2011–2020 were analyzed. As a result, about thirty raw materials were selected, the supplies of which came from, among others, at least one of the three mentioned countries. To determine the raw materials for which the disruption of supplies may have the most serious impact on the functioning of the Polish economy, the following criteria were adopted: a minimum 20% share of these countries in covering the domestic demand in 2020, and a minimum value of these imports in 2020 of 20 million PLN. These threshold conditions were met by eight raw materials: iron ores and concentrates, carbon black, potash, aluminum, ferroalloys, nickel, ball clays and refractory clays, and synthetic corundum. Among these, the need to change the directions of supplies applies to the greatest extent to iron ores and concentrates, aluminum and nickel, while in the case of non-metallic raw materials, it applies most to ball clays and refractory clays and potassium salts. These are among the most important raw materials necessary for the proper functioning of the national economy, but their shortage or disruptions in the continuity of their supplies pose a real threat to the mineral security of Poland.

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The observation of trends in the demand for minerals is of fundamental importance in the long- -term assessment of prospects for economic development in Poland. From among 148 minerals analyzed, 42 minerals are indicated as key minerals for the country’s economy, of which 22 were recognized as deficit minerals. These minerals have been the subject of this paper. For each of these minerals the forecasts of demand by the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 have been made taking the current trends in domestic economy and premises for the development of industries that are main users of these minerals into account. The most promising prospects for growth of domestic demand – with at least a two-fold increase by 2050 – have been determined for manganese dioxide, metallic: magnesium, nickel, silicon, as well as talc and steatite, while an increase by at least 50% have been anticipated for metallic aluminum, tin, metallic manganese, and elemental phosphorus. For natural gas and crude oil growing tendencies have also been predicted, but only by 2030. On the other hand, the most probable decline in domestic demand by 2050 may be foreseen for iron ores and concentrates, bauxite, metallic tungsten, magnesite and magnesia, as well as for crude oil and natural gas, especially after 2040. It seems inevitable that the deficit in the foreign trade of minerals will continue to deepen in the coming years. By 2030 this will mainly result from the growing importation of crude oil and natural gas, but beyond – by 2050 – further deepening in the trade deficit will be related to the growing importation of many metals as well as of some industrial minerals. After 2040, the negative trade balance can be mitigated by a possible decrease in foreign deliveries of hydrocarbons and iron ores and concentrates.

Sufficient supplies of critical raw materials (CRMs) for rapidly developing technologies, e.g., Li-ion batteries, wind turbines, photovoltaics, digitization, etc., have become one of the main economic challenges for the EU. Due to growing import dependency and associated risk of supply disruptions of these raw materials from third countries, there is a need to encourage their domestic production. This is an important starting point for EU value chains crucial for the sustainable economic growth of the whole Union. This contribution has evaluated the possibilities of CRMs supply from the EU’s primary sources. A three-step approach, including an assessment of CRMs’ importance for the EU’s economic growth, their significance in at least two of the three strategic industrial sectors (i.e., renewable energy, e-mobility, defense and aerospace), and their potential availability from EU mineral deposits, has been applied. Results of the analysis have shown that, of 29 critical mineral raw materials (according to the 2020 EC list), the potential to develop manufacturing from the Union mineral deposits exists for 11 CRMs, i.e., cobalt, graphite (natural), HREE, LREE, lithium, magnesium, niobium, PGMs, silicon metal, titanium, and tungsten, while some other CRMs, namely gallium, germanium, indium, and vanadium can be recovered as by-products. Measures to mitigate EU import dependency have been also proposed.

Limestone flour is used in a variety of industrial sectors such as power and heat generation, glass-making, paper-making, the construction industry and construction materials manufacturing, the production of agriculture, plastics and rubber goods, as well as coal mining, and environmental protection. This paper aims to characterize and interpret the limestone flour supply and demand trends in the main applications in Poland in the last decade. In order to track the changes of domestic consumption for this commodity, its major users have been surveyed along with analyses of data from the Statistics Poland (GUS). The results showed that during 2009–2018 the coal-fired power plants became the biggest customer of limestone flour utilized as a sorbent in the wet flue gas desulfurization method (FGD). This method has been implemented in the vast majority of Polish power plants. It is estimated that in the last decade the total annual production capacity of limestone flour at the milling plants in Poland increased by 1.5 million tons, to around 6.0 million tons. In the forthcoming years, this is expected to continue to increase despite EU restrictions on fossil fuel use (especially hard coal and lignite). Other promising areas of future growth are: for limestone flour of medium quality—the construction materials manufacturing and the construction industry itself, for limestone flour of the highest quality—the glass industry, while for fine-grained limestone flour of high-quality—the plastics and rubber industries. In terms of resource security, it is worth noting that Poland is a country rich in limestone deposits. However, only some of them, that is, limestone rock varieties of the Jurassic and Devonian ages from the Kielce vicinity in central Poland are suitable for the production of high-quality limestone flour for the needs of the mentioned industries. The paper analyses the potential of the limestone flour production from the available limestone rock deposits with respect to the current and future needs of the domestic market in Poland.

Different techniques (chemical analysis, X-ray diffraction, Mössbauer spectroscopy, UV-Vis-NIR spectrophotometry and chromaticity measurements) were used to study the color variation of feldspathic raw materials after firing at 1200 °C. Two varieties of feldspar-quartz grits (with Na₂O or K₂O prevalence) doped with synthetic pigments (hematite and rutile) were heat-treated in an oxidizing atmosphere. The results obtained indicate that the color of the ceramic body after firing may not only depend on the presence and analytical content of coloring elements (such as iron and titanium), but on their valence state and the chemical characteristics of the melt itself. The prevalence of larger alkali K⁺ ions over Na⁺ ions may cause the reduction of the coordination number of iron. This has a significant effect on the length of the Fe–O bond, which in turn influences the capacity for light absorption of a specific wavelength. The results of spectrophotometric measurements showed pronounced disparity between the raw materials and samples doped with coloring oxides. The introduction of synthetic pigments caused clear changes in the spectral dependence of the total absorbance. The absorbance increased in the whole measuring range, in particular in the visible part of the spectrum. Furthermore, a red-shift of the absorption bands towards longer wavelengths attributed to oxygen-metal charge transfer (OMCT) interactions between Fe³⁺ and O²⁻ ions as well as to d-d transitions within Fe³⁺ ions was observed.

An assessment of current demand for mineral raw materials in the domestic economy as well possibilities to satisfy the needs of the industry has been performed for the period 2011-2015 on the basis of estimated values and volumes of their consumption, as well as indices of the share of importation in the consumption and percentage of production sold abroad. Domestically consumed mineral raw materials have been assigned to groups corresponding to the main way of their usage, distinguishing:fuels, metallic, ceramic, chemical, construction, and others. Complementary to the presented demand- supply relations are trade balances of selected commodities. Analysis of available statistical data showed that the demand for substantial number of mineral raw materials in Poland has been met by imports and this probably will be continued in future. The reasons for Poland’s sustained import dependency of mineral raw materials is the lack or insufficient reserve base, as well as low quality of raw materials available from deposits occurring in the country. The exceptions are construction raw materials and some ceramic ones, as well minerals exported in significant qualities (e.g.: refined copper, silver, zinc, sulphur, lead raw materials, or selenium), for which it can be stated that their domestic supplies may fully satisfy the demand of the national economy. On the other hand, the scale of utilization of such fuels as hard coal and lignite, which represent very significant item in Poland’s total energy mix, may be greatly reduced in the light of EU directives aimed at restricted use of these fossil fuels. The possible alternative is development of the use of renewable energy sources, while in the case of metals - improved recycling of scrap and metal-bearing wastes.