Makram Talih

Pain is the leading cause of disability worldwide, yet no harmonized self-reported reference framework exists to characterize how its burden is distributed across the lifespan and world regions. In this study, we harmonized individual-level self-reported pain data from 6,125,459 participants across 902 population-based data sources in 118 countries to establish global reference trajectories of pain. We implemented these trajectories in an open-access benchmarking platform for positioning external datasets against global pain norms. Pain prevalence ranged from roughly 2% for facial pain to 40% for back pain, was consistently higher in women across all 11 anatomical sites (risk ratio range: 1.08−1.83) and increased most steeply before age 55 years. Contrary to existing estimates that generally project higher prevalence of pain conditions in higher Human Development Index (HDI) regions, we found that individuals in the lowest HDI countries experienced a substantially higher late-life prevalence of any bodily pain than those in the highest (risk difference: 30.6 percentage points (95% confidence interval: 26.9−34.3)), with low back pain approaching twice the prevalence at the oldest ages. Globally, 18.3% of pain burden across anatomical sites was attributable to three modifiable risk factors (smoking, obesity and low income), but this varied from 12.6% in sub-Saharan Africa to 27.1% in eastern Europe, indicating that the factors underlying pain in lower-HDI settings remain poorly characterized. Together, these reference trajectories provide a common framework for defining and comparing pain burden and informing more equitable global surveillance and prevention.

We aimed to examine the relationship between lifetime exposure to adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) during the first decade of life and recent pain features reported in early adolescence. We conducted a prospective study using data from 4564 adolescent Generation XXI birth cohort participants recruited in 2005–2006. Adverse childhood experiences were reported by children at ages 10 and 13 years using a 15‐item questionnaire. Recent pain features (e.g., any pain, pain sites, recurrent pain intensity, and recurrent pain duration) were measured using structured questionnaires, including the Luebeck pain screening questionnaire at age 13. Using hierarchical binary and multinomial logistic regression analyses with progressive adjustments for confounders, we estimated the associations [adjused odds ratios (aOR) with their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI)] between exposure to ACEs at 10 and pain features at 13 years. The study revealed a statistically significant association between exposure to ACEs reported at age 10 and any pain experienced at age 13 (OR = 1.09; 95% CI [1.07, 1.12]). Even after accounting for the newly reported ACEs at age 13, the association with ACEs at age 10, remained significant (aOR = 1.11 [95% CI, 1.08–1.14]). Consistent patterns were observed when the number of pain sites, recurrent pain intensity, or recurrent pain duration were used as outcome variables instead of any pain at age 13. Adverse childhood experiences occurring during the first decade of life predict the onset of pain features during early adolescence. Consequently, childhood exposure to adversity should be considered a pivotal initial exposure in a pathway leading to chronic pain later in life.

Background: Equal-tailed confidence intervals that maintain nominal coverage (0.95 or greater probability that a 95% confidence interval covers the true value) are useful in interval-based statistical reliability standards, because they remain conservative. For age-adjusted death rates, while the Fay–Feuer gamma method remains the gold standard, modifications have been proposed to streamline implementation and/or obtain more efficient intervals (shorter intervals that retain nominal coverage). Methods: This paper evaluates three such modifications for use in interval-based statistical reliability standards, the Anderson–Rosenberg, Tiwari, and Fay–Kim intervals, when data are sparse and sample size-based standards alone are overly coarse. Initial simulations were anchored around small populations (P = 2400 or 1200), the median crude all-cause US mortality rate in 2010–2019 (833.8 per 100,000), and the corresponding age-specific probabilities of death. To allow for greater variation in the age-adjustment weights and age-specific probabilities, a second set of simulations draws those at random, while holding the mean number of deaths at 20 or 10. Finally, county-level mortality data by race/ethnicity from four causes are selected to capture even greater variation: all causes, external causes, congenital malformations, and Alzheimer disease. Results: The three modifications had comparable performance when the number of deaths was large relative to the denominator and the age distribution was as in the standard population. However, for sparse county-level data by race/ethnicity for rarer causes of death, and for which the age distribution differed sharply from the standard population, coverage probability in all but the Fay–Feuer method sometimes fell below 0.95. More efficient intervals than the Fay–Feuer interval were identified under specific circumstances. When the coefficient of variation of the age-adjustment weights was below 0.5, the Anderson–Rosenberg and Tiwari intervals appeared to be more efficient, whereas when it was above 0.5, the Fay–Kim interval appeared to be more efficient. Conclusions: As national and international agencies reassess prevailing data presentation standards to release age-adjusted estimates for smaller areas or population subgroups than previously presented, the Fay–Feuer interval can be used to develop interval-based statistical reliability standards with appropriate thresholds that are generally applicable. For data that meet certain statistical conditions, more efficient intervals could be considered.

Background: Trajectory studies suggest considerable stability of persistent or recurrent pain in adolescence. This points to the first decade of life as an important aetiologic window for shaping future pain, where the potential for prevention may be optimised.Objectives: We aimed to quantify changes in mother‐reported pain experience in children between ages 7 and 10 and describe clusters of different pain experiences defined by complementary pain features.Methods: We conducted a prospective study using data from 4036 Generation XXI birth cohort participants recruited in 2005‐06. Pain history was reported by mothers at ages 7 and 10 using the Luebeck pain screening questionnaire. We tracked changes in six pain features over time using relative risks (RRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Clusters were obtained using the k‐medoids algorithm.Results: The risk of severe pain at age 10 increased with increasing severity at age 7, with RRs ranging from 2.18 (95% CI 1.90, 2.50) for multisite to 4.43 (95% CI 3.19, 6.15) for high frequency pain at age 7. A majority of children (59.4%) had transient or no pain but two clusters included children with stable recurrent pain (n = 404, 10.2% of the sample). One of those (n = 177) was characterised by higher probabilities of multisite pain (74.6% and 66.7% at ages 7 and 10, respectively), with psychosocial triggers/contexts (59.3% and 61.0%) and daily‐living restrictions (72.2% and 84.6%). Most children in that cluster (58.3%) also self‐reported recent pain at age 10 and had more frequent family history of chronic pain (60.5%).Conclusions: All pain features assessed tracked with a positive gradient between ages 7 and 10, arguing for the significance of the first decade of life in the escalation of the pain experience. Multisite pain and psychosocial attributions appeared to be early markers of more adverse pain experiences.

In this paper, we evaluate 11 measures of inequality, d(p₁, p₂), between 2 proportions p₁ and p₂, some of which are new to the health disparities literature. These measures are selected because they are continuous, nonnegative, equal to 0 if and only if |p₁ − p₂| = 0, and maximal when |p₁ − p₂| = 1. They are also symmetrical [d(p₁, p₂) = d(p₂, p₁)] and complement-invariant [d(p₁, p₂) = d(1 − p₂, 1 − p₁)]. To study intermeasure agreement, 5 of the 11 measures, including the absolute difference, are retained, because they remain finite and are maximal if and only if |p₁ − p₂| = 1. Even when the 2 proportions are assumed to be drawn at random from a shared distribution—interpreted as the absence of an avoidable difference—the expected value of d(p₁, p₂) depends on the shape of the distribution (and the choice of d) and can be quite large. To allow for direct comparisons among measures, we propose a standard measurement unit akin to a z score. For skewed underlying beta distributions, 4 of the 5 retained measures, once standardized, offer more conservative assessments of the magnitude of inequality than the absolute difference. We conclude that, even for measures that share the highlighted mathematical properties, magnitude comparisons are most usefully assessed relative to an elicited or estimated underlying distribution for the 2 proportions.

Concern has been expressed that human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programs might promote risky sexual behavior through mechanisms such as risk compensation, behavioral disinhibition, or perceived endorsement of sexual activity. This study assesses whether HPV vaccination status is associated with any differences in selected sexual behaviors among young sexually-active women in the US. Our dataset includes young, adult female respondents from questionnaire data collected in the National Center for Health Statistics' National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2007 to 2014. The empirical approach implements a doubly robust estimation procedure, based on inverse probability of treatment weighting. For robustness, we implement several specifications for the propensity model and the outcomes model. We find no consistent association between HPV vaccination and condom usage or frequency of sex. Specifically, we find no evidence that HPV vaccination is associated with condom usage or with whether a person had sex more than 52 or more than 104 times per year. We find inconsistent evidence that HPV vaccination is associated with a person having sex more than 12 times per year. As in previous research, HPV vaccination does not appear to have a substantive effect on sexual behavior among young sexually-active women in the US.

To describe methodological issues that arise in the construction and design-based estimation of multidimensional indices that aggregate state-specific inequalities in core health measures, using data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).