SGSerkan Gürlük

Serkan Gürlük

*This is an algorithmically generated author record based on publicly available information.

Current Organizations / Institutes

The organizations/institutes from the scholar's latest article


Serkan Gürlük has a total of 18 co-authors. Here are the top co-authors by number of shared publications:


Latest Publications

  • Open Access

    Carbon Border Adjustment, Market Responses, and Food-Security Trade-Offs in EU–Türkiye Processed Agri-Food Trade: A Calibrated Stackelberg Analysis

    by Gökhan Uzel, Gülnaz Hale Üstün, Serkan Gürlük

    This paper develops a stylized theoretical policy experiment to evaluate the ex ante economic and environmental implications of extending carbon border adjustment to processed agri-food imports from Türkiye to the EU. The model is not a direct simulation of the existing CBAM, but rather a Stackelberg framework in which the EU sets product-specific carbon charges and Türkiye adjusts export quantities. We develop a calibrated Stackelberg framework in which the EU acts as the regulatory leader setting product-specific carbon border charges, while Türkiye adjusts export quantities as the follower. The model integrates consumer surplus, producer surplus, carbon-charge revenue, environmental benefits, and a food-security penalty linked to minimum consumption requirements. Results reveal substantial heterogeneity across products. In the unconstrained benchmark, lamb and beef face the highest optimal charges, at 45 and 42 USD/tCO2e, respectively. Incorporating food-security constraints reduces the charge for lamb to 27.8 USD/tCO2e, while the charge for beef remains unchanged because the minimum consumption constraint is non-binding. Under the baseline food-security scenario, net EU welfare increases by 29.1 million USD/year. The findings suggest that CBAM-type measures in agri-food trade should be product-specific and should account for food-security risks in nutritionally essential products.

  • Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions – Economic Growth Relationship in Türkiye: Are Agricultural Farmgate Emissions a Major Factor?

    by Gökhan Uzel, Elif Erbek Bozaba, Sertaç Dokuzlu, Serkan Gürlük

    Although the agricultural sector in Türkiye has met/is meeting various criteria during its accession process to the EU, it has not yet formulated a strategy for mitigating or adapt-ing to climate change, particularly in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which con-tribute to climate change. One of the significant reasons behind the farmer protests ob-served in the EU may be the perceived strict stance of EU leaders on combating climate change. This study examines the relationship between farmgate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and economic growth in Türkiye. Using Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR), the causal relationship between agricultural and non-agricultural emissions and GDP is explored in a country where agriculture remains a significant source of income. Accord-ing to the VAR results, although there is no statistical causality found between GDP, non-agricultural emissions, and farmgate emissions, it is suggested that Türkiye, which is following the path of emerging economies and the EU, needs to undertake measures both on the supply side and the demand side. The transition of rural residents in Türkiye to alter agricultural techniques that have been practiced for centuries for mitigation pur-poses may require time. The current findings of the paper do not dictate this. However, in a growing economy, transitioning to regional studies and demand-side mitigation policies for non-agricultural emissions can be implemented more readily. The process that began with supply-side mitigation efforts in countries like the EU, where farmers were structurally more prepared, could start with demand-side mitigation efforts in Tü-rkiye (such as dietary changes, measures in the processing industry, etc.). The wave of change observed in consumers and agricultural raw material processors could lead to-wards farmgate mitigation efforts.

  • Open Access

    Asymmetric Effects of Agricultural Input Prices on Farmgate Prices in Türkiye

    by Gökhan Uzel, Mustafa Kuzu, Ahlem Güler, Serkan Gürlük

    The asymmetric effects of global and national factors on agricultural production negatively affect the sustainability of agriculture in Turkey. This study seeks to explore those impacts on wheat prices by focusing on key input prices such as diesel, fertilizers, and substitute barley prices and wheat production. Unlike studies that use crude oil prices as agricultural input parameters, this study aims to address the lack of behavioural variables in time series studies by considering diesel and fertilizer prices. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model analysis examines the effect of barley prices as a substitute for wheat, while the Granger causality analysis is conducted to assess the causal relationships between variables. Additionally, unlike previous studies that primarily focus on causality between variables or the effects of lagged values, this study investigates the dual effects of explanatory variables. Furthermore, impulse response functions are utilized to analyse the dynamic interactions among the variables and to identify symmetric and asymmetric relationships. Granger causality analysis indicates that wheat production in Türkiye is influenced by wheat prices; however, production does not impact prices. Wheat prices are not market-driven, and price interventions aim to ensure agricultural sustainability. The absence of causality between the wheat production amount and its price emerged bilaterally as barley price/wheat production/barley price. An analysis of wheat price responses to shocks in fertilizer and diesel prices reveals an asymmetric pattern. Wheat prices reacted more strongly to negative shocks, while their response to positive shocks was more moderate. These findings indicate the existence of asymmetric relationships between wheat prices and these two agricultural inputs, underscoring the asymmetric nature of price transmission in agricultural markets. They also highlight the policy requirements associated with ensuring food price stability and sustainable agricultural practices as well as a crucial lesson: policymakers in developing countries should prioritize structural reforms over interventionist policies that distort market signals.


  • Research of The Uludağ National Park in Terms of Resource Economy

    by Gökhan Uzel, Serkan Gürlük

    The potential of forest-mountain ecosystem services as a source of sustainable development has been widely recognized. This paper aims to provide comprehensive economic value resource parameters of Uludağ National Park (UNP), the region of Bursa, Turkey. In this context, 10 ecosystem parameters were determined under 3 categories. The first of these groups is the supplier parameters. Group of supplier parameters consists of crop production, animal production, industrial and firewood production, grazing, beekeeping and non-wood forest products. Group of regulatory parameters as regulators of the ecosystem consists of biodiversity, carbon sequestration and water resources. Within the scope of socio-economic parameter, there is tourism-recreation value.Valution is based on a wide variety of techniques, drawings on market prices, results of local surveys and other econometric valuation methods called as Faustman and Hartman. It shows that at UNP, water resources provide annual benefits of about 147 046 $ ha-1, secondly biodiversity provides a 15 312 $ ha-1 annualy and carbon sequestration has a 6 806 $ ha-1 annual value. After this regulatory parameters, as a socio-economic parameter tourism and recreation provides 4 362 $ ha-1 economic value annualyand supplier resource parameters following them. The paper shows the degree of importance of the UNP main values for the country and region as a whole. It also discusses some reasons of concern when drawing policy tools for improving UNP income and conservation practices local and regional level.


  • Open Access

    Agriculture Policy Scores of Selected Countries Through the Technique for Order of Preference (TOPSIS) Method

    by Abdulhakim Madiyoh, Özlem Turan, Serkan Gürlük

    The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the performance of agricultural sectors in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries using selected criteria, to identify the deficiencies in agricultural policies, to explore competitive advantages and to guide food and nutrition policies. The analyses of this research use the secondary of time series data between the years 1967 - 2016 from 10 countries including; Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam which are the member of ASEAN. This research uses the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method and the data used for the mentioned countries include the following criteria; total agricultural production value of the land, self-sufficiency of animal products criteria, self-sufficiency of crop products criteria, rural population rate, greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, and value of foreign trade in agricultural products. The result of proximity coefficients calculated with the TOPSIS method, which according to the number of proximity and maximum benefit analysis should be done according to the order of preference. It is stated that Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia were the most successful countries in the agricultural policy performance in 1967. As for last decades, Malaysia became the most successful country in agricultural policy performance. We can infer from the results that Malay industrial sector triggered the agricultural sector by supplying financial investment atmosphere.


  • Open Access

    Biyoçeşitlilik Gölge Fiyatının Doğal Kaynak Yönetiminde Kullanımı Üzerine: Uludağ Milli Parkı Örneği

    by Serkan Gürlük Gurluk

    Biyolojik çeşitlilik, insanoğluna kullanım ve kullanım dışı pek çok değer sağlamasına rağmen ekonomik sistemde bu hizmetlerin değerleri dikkate alınmadığı için yok oluşlarına şahit olmaktayız. Eczacılık hammaddesi sağlama değeri, tarımsal germaplazma destek değeri, ekoturizm değeri ve ekosistem değeri gibi değerler aslında ekonomik hayatın işleyişinde önemli rolleri olan hizmetlerdir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, biyolojik çeşitliliğin dağ-orman ekosistemlerindeki değerini ortaya koymak ve doğal kaynak yönetimindeki etkilerini incelemektir. Bursa Uludağ Milli Parkı’nın (UMP) doğal kaynak değerlerinden biri olan biyolojik çeşitliliğin değeri, optimal orman rotasyonunu hesaplama sürecine dahil edilerek, biyolojik çeşitlilik değerinin dikkate alınmadığı durumdaki Faustmann yaklaşımı ile biyolojik çeşitlilik değerinin dikkate alındığı Hartman yaklaşımları karşılaştırılmıştır. UMP’nin Faustmann yaklaşımıyla hesaplanmış temel modelde yaklaşık 44 yıllık rotasyona sahip olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. UMP, 44. yılda 956 USD Ha-1 net bugünkü değere ulaşmaktadır. UMP’nin gerçek alanı ile değerlendirildiğinde, en yüksek bugünkü değeri, 12.2 milyon USD olarak hesaplanmıştır. UMP’nin biyolojik çeşitlilik akış değerinin dikkate alındığı Hartman rotasyonunda 44 yıl olan önceki rotasyon süresinin, 53 yıla yükseldiği gözlemlenmiştir. Hartman rotasyonunda 53. Yılda 5.294 USD Ha-1 bugünkü değerine ulaşılmaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, UMP’nin toplam alanına genelleştirildiğinde aslında biyolojik çeşitliliğin ne kadar değerli bir ekosistem hizmeti sağladığı ortaya konulmuştur. Rotasyon başlangıcındaki biyolojik çeşitlilik değeri (gölge fiyatlarla hesaplanan) yeterli büyüklükte ise optimum rotasyon süresinin sonsuza uzaması muhtemeldir. Bu durumda söz konusu doğal kaynağın ekolojik olarak çok hassas doğal kaynaklardan biri olduğu ve kamusal tahsis kararlarında çok dikkatli olunması gerektiği anlaşılır. Ülkemizde hassas ekosistemlerin bulunduğu alanlar net bir şekilde belirlenmeli ve bu tür alanların yönetimi için pek çok ilgi grubunun yer aldığı danışma kurulları oluşturulmalıdır. Çalışmada kullanılan ‘etki transferi’ ve karbon sekurizasyonu ile eşleştirilen ‘birincil üretim ağı’ yöntemlerinin de kullanımıyla belirlenen biyolojik çeşitlilik akış değeri, Faustmann ve Hartman orman rotasyonu belirleme yaklaşımları ile ilgili kıymet takdiri literatürüne katkıda bulunmaktadır.


  • Open Access

    Impacts of Corruption to Agricultural Export Potential of the Gambia Competitive Neighbours

    by Gökhan Uzel Uzel, Assan Ndi̇mballan, Serkan Gürlük

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the mutual interaction between corruption and agricultural export variations with using corruption perception index, exchange rate and gross domestic product affect. Study, centers the Gambia country, but her neighbour and competitive countries in order to make comparisons. Study constructs a multinominal logit model to analyze the determinants of agricultural export variations and depends on panel data belongs to six Sub-Saharan African countries. Study shows that, the corruption perception index had a probality on agricultural export. Value of corruption production index in the previous year was likely to contribute to the current agricultural export of Sub-Saharan Africa countries. Increases at Gross Domestic Product provide benefits to agricultural export in parallel with corruption perception index. Policy makers, trade sector, business and civil society movements and governmental approaches have significance on preventing corruption climate atmosphere. To the best of authors knowledge, this study constitutes the first attempt to build a theoretical framework to explore how the interactions between determinants of agricultural export variations and corruption inflluence.