Sergey V. Baranov

The current paper describes algorithms and a methodology for assessing postseismic activity in the Aftershock Information System (IS), developed for the Kirovsk Branch (KB) of JSC Apatit. The Aftershock IS is intended for real-time determination of aftershock areas, the expected energy of the strongest aftershock, and the duration of the hazardous period after major seismic events with energy exceeding 10⁷ J that occur during mining of apatite-nepheline ores in the Khibiny massif. Aftershock IS was designed based on long-term seismic monitoring in underground mines of KB JSC Apatit. The methodology describes various forecast strategies for risk management at a mining enterprise. The system can produce estimates both from the parameters of the main shock immediately after its occurrence and several hours later using additional data on the first aftershocks. The application of the methodology and algorithms of Aftershock IS are showcased on a seismic event with E = 1.8 × 10⁸ J that occurred at the Kirovsky mine of JSC Apatit on July 17, 2024, at 04:07:57 UTC.

Subject. This article focuses on the risks to achieving the national state policy objectives in the Russian Arctic zone as a maximum national interest macro-region. Objectives. The article aims to outline the main directions for minimizing the risks of achieving each goal of the State policy of the Russian Federation in the Arctic zone. Methods. For the study, we used a fundamentally new strategic approach to identifying the activities risks of the Russian Arctic zone. Results. The article identifies, substantiates, and typologizes the risks of achieving each of the five objectives of State Arctic policy. Conclusions. The risks are often interconnected, which leads to increased uncertainty and reduces the ability to achieve the strategic goals of state policy. To minimize the risks, it is necessary to involve government authorities in collaboration with large corporations developing Arctic resources, as well as the scientific community.

The study of economic processes in the regions of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF) using economic-statistical modelling methods is an important area of Arctic research due to the possibility of displaying statistically significant relationships of economic processes and phenomena and forecasting economic dynamics, but the potential of such modelling is limited by the specificity of the processes of a number of regional economies in the Arctic, distorted by the increased state presence and active man-agement intervention in the Arctic. Therefore, economic and statistical studies of the Russian Arctic regions are rare in relation to the popularity of the Arctic topics in regional studies. The aim of the study is economic-statistical modelling of production processes in the regions of the AZRF using the production function (PF) toolkit. At the first stage, the analysis of correlations between GRP and factors of production was carried out, on the basis of which the AZRF regions were divided into three groups: 1) regions in which the mutual behavior of the main factors of production (labor and capital) fits into the generally accepted concepts (the Russian Federation as a whole, the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)); 2) regions in which the mutual behavior of the main factors of production does not fit into the classical concepts: there is a sufficiently strong positive relationship with only one of the factors of production (the Arkhangelsk Oblast, the Krasnoyarsk Krai, the Komi Republic); 3) regions for which there is no sufficiently strong positive relationship between GRP and factors of production (the Murmansk Oblast, the Republic of Karelia, the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug). At the second stage, at least 4 PF models were built for the regions of group 1 (the best model was selected using the Akaike information criterion adjusted for small samples). For the regions of group 2, Cobb-Douglas PF models and single-factor models were built, in which a factor with a positive relationship with GRP was included. The construction of PF models for the regions of group 3 is impossible.

—This paper examines the construction of an aftershock activity area in conditions of natural and mining-induced seismicity based after the data on the first aftershocks. The study area is apatite–nepheline deposits located in the southern part of the Khibiny massif. A significant number of variants of aftershock regions were investigated that differ in shape, location, and orientation. The size of the area has been determined by scaling based on physical and statistical characteristics calculated from both the main shock and the first aftershocks. The criterion based on an error diagram has been used to quantitatively compare a large number of different variants. As a result, the optimal area type has been selected, which showing the best results of the quantitative test based on seismicity data on the study area for 1996–2022. The technique can be used to predict the area of aftershock activity distribution at the Khibiny massif deposits after a natural–mining-induced earthquake based on operational processing data.

   Aim. To establish the specifics of interaction between the factors of economic growth of the Murmansk Oblast and Russia as a whole using the methodological potential of production functions.   Objectives. To evaluate the possibilities of building production function models for the Murmansk Oblast and Russia as a whole; to build and study adequate models of the production function type for the Murmansk Oblast and Russia as a whole.   Methods. The constructed methodology is based on the verification of the initial hypothesis about the possibility of building an adequate model of the production function type for the subjects of the Russian Federation (RF) and Russia as a whole. At the first stage, the dynamics of gross regional product (GRP) and economic growth factors (investment in fixed capital, the value of fixed assets and the number of employees) were analyzed, which reflects significant differences in the behavior of these indicators for the Murmansk Oblast and Russia as a whole. Aiming to test the hypothesis about the possibility of constructing production functions for the Murmansk Oblast and Russia as a whole, Pearson correlation coefficients between GRP and production factors for 2000-2022 were calculated. Further it was supposed to construct a series of models of the production function type. The indicative production function and the Cobb-Douglas production function were considered. The best model was selected using Akaike’s information criterion adjusted for small samples.   Results. It was found that for Russia as a whole the mutual behavior of the main factors of economic growth (labor and capital) fits into the generally accepted ideas: there is a significant positive relationship between GRP and factors of production. Accordingly, for Russia it becomes possible to construct classical models of GRP production in the form of production functions. The hypothesis about the possibility of building production functions for the Murmansk Oblast was not confirmed; the models were created only for Russia as a whole.   Conclusions. Based on the study of a series of models in the form of the indicative production function and the Cobb-Douglas function, the growing nature of the Russian economy, elasticity parameters for the number of employed and investment in fixed capital are established. The fact of unbalanced interaction of the main factors of production in the Murmansk Oblast did not confirm the hypothesis for this region. The reasons for the imbalance should be sought in the specifics of regional production processes.

—The effect of water saturation of the medium on the property of earthquakes to trigger other earthquake shocks (earthquake productivity) is studied using the long-term seismological observations and water inflow monitoring data in the Khibiny massif ore deposits. The analysis indicates that water saturation of the medium is a significant factor affecting the productivity of earthquakes.

The article is devoted to the study of the influence of watering of the rock environment on post-seismic activity in the deposits of the Khibiny mountains. Initial data are the results of long-term monitoring of seismicity and observations of water inflows. At a qualitative level, the influence of watering of the environment on the b-value of the Gutenberg – Richter distribution of magnitudes of triggered events, as well as on the parameters of the Omori – Utsu law, which describes the post-seismic activity decay rate over time, was studied.

Abstract— This paper analyzes the use of the automated aftershock hazards assessment system (AFCAST) through the example of a series of aftershocks of the M _w 7.8 earthquake in Turkey of February 6, 2023 (the Pazarcik earthquake). The paper presents automated estimates of the aftershock activity area, the magnitude of the strongest aftershock, and the duration of the hazardous period, yielded using data on the main shock and on the first aftershocks.