Yufei Yuan

Data-driven approaches are helpful for quantitative justification and performance evaluation. The Netherlands has made notable strides in establishing a national protocol for bicycle traffic counting and collecting GPS cycling data through initiatives such as the Talking Bikes program. This article addresses the need for a generic framework to harness cycling data and extract relevant insights. Specifically, it focuses on the application of estimating average bicycle delays at signalized intersections, as this is an essential variable in assessing the performance of the transportation system. This study evaluates machine learning (ML)-based approaches using GPS cycling data. The dataset provides comprehensive yet incomplete information regarding one million bicycle rides annually across The Netherlands. These ML models, including random forest, k-nearest neighbor, support vector regression, extreme gradient boosting, and neural networks, are developed to estimate bicycle delays. The study demonstrates the feasibility of estimating bicycle delays using sparse GPS cycling data combined with publicly accessible information, such as weather information and intersection complexity, leveraging the burden of understanding local traffic conditions. It emphasizes the potential of data-driven approaches to inform traffic management, bicycle policy, and infrastructure development.

Pedestrian tactical choices and operational movement in evacuations essentially pertain to decision-making under risk and uncertainty. However, in microscopic evacuation models, this attribute has been greatly overlooked, even lacking a methodology to delineate the related decision characteristics (bounded rationality and risk attitudes), let alone their effects on evacuation processes. This work presents an innovative two-layer floor field cellular automaton model framework, where three intertwined sub-modules respectively dedicated to modelling the exit choice, the locomotion movement and the exit-choice changing behaviours are proposed and integrated as an entity. By introducing various decision-making elements computed by the proposed algorithm, Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) is proposed for the first time to model the exit choice and locomotion decision-making under risk and uncertainty. In the exit-choice changing module, attractive and repulsive forces are invented to jointly describe the tendency to revisit the routing decision. Each sub-module and the whole framework are validated in manifold indoor environments. The simulation results of the modules with CPT accord with the empirics from the evacuation experiments and are superior over those from the state-of-the-art models. The degree of rationality and risk attitudes are proven to have significant impacts on tactical and operational decisions. Furthermore, irrational behaviour in decision-making is not variably detrimental to locomotion efficiency of pedestrians. The proposed framework can serve as an elegant tool to predict pedestrian dynamics. The behavioural findings shed new light on understanding and modelling the tactical and operational decisions in evacuations.

Numerous evacuation performance data for the utilization in evacuation modelling and simulations have been established for the conventional/widely studied scenarios, such as building evacuation scenarios. However, such data are typically scarce for a new scenario in literature — evacuation from high-deck coaches. This paper fulfills this gap by presenting empirical high-deck coach evacuation data-sets that can be used for model configuration and validation. To this end, firstly, five essential and commonly used performance metrics, i.e., evacuation time, flow rate, alighting time gap, velocity on stairways and exit choice, were collected and derived from two series of controlled experiments with 7 and 22 runs that involved 44 and 96 participants respectively. Then, all these datasets were structured in the distribution form, based on which three critical behavioural insights are revealed regardless of the evacuation conditions (the types of high-deck coaches, lighting conditions, and age groups). First, the evacuation behaviour in normal (experimental) conditions conforms to a multi-stage pattern (a modified four-stage pattern, i.e., reaction, acceleration, fluctuation and saturation stages). Second, the instantaneous flow rate can be well captured by the Burr, Loglogistic and Lognormal distributions, and the alighting time gap can be represented by the Burr distribution. Third, more than 50% of passengers evacuate through the rear door in the front-and-rear-door evacuations. The frequency of choosing the front door is found to shift towards the direction of the rear door compared to the ideal results (based on the shortest distance calculation) with a magnitude of approximately 1.95 seat rows. The presented data-sets are valuable resources for the development of high-deck coach evacuation models. The empirical findings promote the understanding upon the evacuation behaviour of high-deck coach passengers.

Metro-bikeshare integration, an important way of improving the efficiency of public transportation, has grown rapidly during the last decades in many countries. However, most previous analysis of metro-bikeshare transfer trips were based on limited sample size and the number of recognized metro-bikeshare trips were not sufficient. The primary objective of this study is to derive a method to recognize metro-bikeshare transfer trips. The two data sources are provided by Nanjing Metro Company and Nanjing Public Bicycle Company over the same period from 9–29 March 2016. The identifying method includes three steps: (1) Matching Card Pairs (2) Filtering Card Pairs and (3) Identifying Card Pairs. The case study indicates that the Support Vector Classification (SVC) performs best with a high prediction accuracy of 95.9% using seamless smartcards. The identifying method is then used to recognize the transfer trips from other types of cards, resulting in 17,022 valid metro-bikeshare transfer trips made by 2948 travelers. Finally, travel patterns extracted from the two groups of identified transfer trips are analyzed comparatively. The method proposed presents new opportunities for analyzing metro-bikeshare transfer trip characteristics.