Min Ouyang

The emerging tropical cyclone (TC)-blackout-heatwave compound risk under climate change is not well understood. In this study, we employ projections of TCs, sea level rise, and heatwaves, in conjunction with power system resilience modeling, to evaluate historical and future TC-blackout-heatwave compound risk in Louisiana, US. We find that the return period for a compound event comparable to Hurricane Ida (2021), with approximately 35 million customer hours of simultaneous power outage and heatwave exposure in Louisiana, is around 278 years in the historical climate of 1980–2005. Under the SSP5-8.5 emissions scenario, this return period is projected to decrease to 16.2 years by 2070–2100, a ~17 times reduction. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, it decreases to 23.1 years, representing a ~12 times reduction. Heatwave intensification is the primary driver of this increased risk, reducing the return period by approximately 5 times under SSP5-8.5 and 3 times under SSP2-4.5. Increased TC activity is the second driver, reducing the return period by 40% and 34% under the respective scenarios. These findings enhance our understanding of compound climate hazards and inform climate adaptation strategies.

The emerging tropical cyclone (TC)-blackout-heatwave compound hazard under climate change are not well understood. In this study, we employ future projections of TCs, sea levels, and heatwaves, in conjunction with power system resilience modeling, to evaluate historical and future TC-blackout-heatwave compound hazard risks in Louisiana, US. We find that the return period for a compound hazard event comparable to Hurricane Ida (2021), with approximately 35 million customer hours of simultaneous power outage and heatwave exposure in Louisiana, is around 278 years in the historical climate (1980-2005). Under the emissions scenario SSP5 8.5 (SSP2 4.5), this return period may decrease by a factor of ~17×(10x) to 16.2 (28.4) years in the future climate (2070-2100). The significant increase in risk can be primarily attributed to projected escalations in heatwaves, which result in an approximate 5(2)-fold decrease in compound hazard return period, and in TC activity, which cause an estimated 2(1)-fold decrease in the return period. The findings contribute to our knowledge of and adaptation to compound climate hazards.

Urban road networks (URNs), as simplified views and important components of cities, have different structures, resulting in varying levels of transport efficiency, accessibility, resilience, and many socio-economic indicators. Thus, topological characteristics of URNs have received great attention in the literature, while existing studies have used various boundaries to extract URNs for analysis. This naturally leads to the question of whether topological patterns concluded using small-size boundaries keep consistent with those uncovered using commonly adopted administrative boundaries or daily travel range-based boundaries. This paper conducts a large-scale empirical analysis to reveal the boundary effects on 22 topological metrics of URNs across 363 cities in mainland China. Statistical results show that boundaries have negligible effects on the average node degree, edge density, orientation entropy of road segments, and the eccentricity for the shortest or fastest routes, while other metrics including the clustering coefficient, proportion of high-level road segments, and average edge length together with route-related metrics such as average angular deviation show significant differences between road networks extracted using different boundaries. In addition, the high-centrality components identified using varied boundaries show significant differences in terms of their locations, with only 21%–28% of high-centrality nodes overlapping between the road networks extracted using administrative and daily travel range-based boundaries. These findings provide useful insights to assist urban planning and better predict the influence of a road network structure on the movement of people and the flow of socio-economic activities, particularly in the context of rapid urbanization and the ever-increasing sprawl of road networks.