Luthiene Dalanhese

The corresponding author for this article

The record-setting winter of 2022–2023 came as an answer to both figurative and literal prayers for political leaders, policy makers, and water managers reliant on snowpacks in the Upper Colorado River Basin, a vital source of water for tens of millions of people across the Western United States. But this “drought-busting” winter was not well-predicted, in part because while interannual patterns of tropical ocean temperatures have a well-known relationship to precipitation patterns across much of the American West, the Upper Colorado is part of a liminal region where these connections tend to be comparatively weak. Using historical sea surface temperature and snowpack records, and leveraging a long-term cross-basin relationship to extend the timeline for evaluation, this analysis demonstrates that the 2022–2023 winter did not present in accordance with other high-snowpack winters in this region, and that the associative pattern of surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, and snow water equivalent in the regions that stored and supplied most of the water to the Colorado River during the 2022–2023 winter, was not substantially different from a historically incoherent arrangement of long-term correlation. These findings suggest that stochastic variability plays an outsized role in influencing water availability in this region, even in extreme years, reinforcing the importance of other trends to inform water policy and management.

In South America, the most destructive extratropical cyclones occur over the southeastern quadrant of the continent, a region that includes some of the world's largest population centres. However, there are few studies of cyclogenesis in this region, and little is known about how the varying origins of these storms impact subsequent behaviour. By supplementing an observational record with current reanalysis data, this study reveals the general characteristics of cyclones that develop in the lee regions of the Andes and those that develop nearer the Atlantic coast. The comparative climatologies demonstrate that cyclone development in these separate contexts is driven by topography, local atmospheric circulations and basin‐scale climate oscillations. The analysis further reveals a low‐frequency seesaw of lee and coastal cyclogenesis, with cross‐basin ocean temperature differences playing a teleconnectional role.

Extratropical cyclones are weather phenomena with significant transfer of energy between the surface (over the ocean or on land) and the atmosphere. Recurrently, reanalysis data are used to understand the behavior of cyclonic tracks and to study extreme events, with constant updates and validations with the observational base in the Northern Hemisphere. However, studies using cyclone tracking in the Southwestern Atlantic, has proven more difficult. This disagreement seems to be in function of the structure and intensity of the forcing factors that influence both cyclogenesis and the displacement to the South Atlantic, when compared to the Northern Hemisphere. In this work, synoptic pressure charts at sea level, manually made and processed by the Brazilian Navy every 12 hours between the years 2010 and 2020, as a product resulting from a consensus among Navy meteorologists, were used to study the cyclonic pathways in the Southwestern Atlantic (METAREA V). Data obtained for all cyclones identified in the charts, based on their position and displacement, formed a database with 10737 cyclones, containing speed, dimensions, and pressure gradient. The cyclones identified have a higher radius frequency between 200/400 km and a faster-moving center shift. In addition, about 60% of cyclones associated with cold fronts have a life cycle ranging from 3 to 4 days. There is also a expressive cyclogenesis between latitudes 23ºS and 43ºS where, in austral autumn winter, increases its frequency over the ocean and close to the southern Brazilian coast. During spring, the greater cyclogenesis frequency occurs over the continent, close to Chaco area in Argentina and Uruguay. The impacts of these statistical figures on the south and southeastern Brazilian coast, mainly the continental insertion point of the cold fronts and cyclonic displacement that influence rough seas and storm surges, are discussed in this work. Keywords: EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES, CYCLONE TRACK, SYNOPTIC CHARTS, SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC