Jie Qiao

Conditional independence (CI) testing is an important problem, especially in causal discovery. Most testing methods assume that all variables are fully observable and then test the CI among the observed data. Such an assumption is often untenable beyond applications dealing with, e.g., psychological analysis about the mental health status and medical diagnosing (researchers need to consider the existence of latent variables in these scenarios); and typically adopted latent CI test schemes mainly suffer from robust or efficient issues. Accordingly, this article investigates the problem of testing CI between latent variables. To this end, we offer an auxiliary regression-based CI (AReCI) test by taking the measured variable as the surrogate variable of the latent variables to conduct the regression over the latent variables under the linear causal models, in which each latent variable has some certain measured variables. Specifically, given a pair of latent variables $L_X$ and $L_Y$ , and a corresponding latent variable set $\mathcal{L}_{O}$ , $L_X \CI L_Y | \mathcal{L}_{O}$ holds if and only if $A_{\{L_X\}}-\omega_1^\intercal A^{\prime}_{\{\mathcal{L}_{O}\}}$ and $A_{\{L_Y\}}-\omega_2^\intercal A^{\prime\prime}_{\{\mathcal{L}_{O}\}}$ are statistically independent, where $A^{\prime}$ and $A^{\prime\prime}$ are the two disjoint subset of the measured variable for the corresponding latent variables, $A^{\prime}_{\{\mathcal{L}_{O}\}} \cap A^{\prime\prime}_{\{\mathcal{L}_{O}\}} =\emptyset$ , and $\omega_1$ is a parameter vector characterized from the cross covariance between $A_{\{L_X\}}$ and $A^{\prime}_{\{\mathcal{L}_{O}\}}$ , and $\omega_{2}$ is a parameter vector characterized from the cross covariance between $A_{\{L_Y\}}$ and $A^{\prime\prime}_{\{\mathcal{L}_{O}\}}$ . We theoretically show that the AReCI test is capable of addressing both Gaussian and non-Gaussian data. In addition, we find that the well-known partial correlation test can be seen as a special case of the AReCI test. Finally, we devise a causal discovery method by using the AReCI test as the CI test. The experimental results on synthetic and real-world data illustrate the effectiveness of our method.

The recommendation system, relying on historical observational data to model the complex relationships among users and items, has achieved great success in real-world applications. Selection bias is one of the most important issues of the existing observational data-based approaches, which is actually caused by multiple types of unobserved exposure strategies (e.g., promotions and holiday effects). Though various methods have been proposed to address this problem, they are mainly relying on the implicit debiasing techniques but not explicitly modeling the unobserved exposure strategies. By explicitly Reconstructing Exposure STrategies (REST), we formalize the recommendation problem as the counterfactual reasoning and propose the debiased social recommendation method. In REST, we assume that the exposure of an item is controlled by the latent exposure strategies, the user, and the item. Based on the above generation process, we first provide the theoretical guarantee of our method via identification analysis. Second, we employ a variational auto-encoder to reconstruct the latent exposure strategies, with the help of the social networks and the items. Third, we devise a counterfactual reasoning based recommendation algorithm by leveraging the recovered exposure strategies. Experiments on four real-world datasets, including three published datasets and one private WeChat Official Account dataset, demonstrate significant improvements over several state-of-the-art methods.

Causal discovery from observational data is an important but challenging task in many scientific fields. A recent line of work formulates the structure learning problem as a continuous constrained optimization task using an algebraic characterization of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and the least-square loss function. Though the least-square loss function is well justified under the standard Gaussian noise assumption, it is limited if the assumption does not hold. In this work, we theoretically show that the violation of the Gaussian noise assumption will hinder the causal direction identification, making the causal orientation fully determined by the causal strength as well as the variances of noises in the linear case and by the strong non-Gaussian noises in the nonlinear case. Consequently, we propose a more general entropy-based loss that is theoretically consistent with the likelihood score under any noise distribution. We run extensive empirical evaluations on both synthetic data and real-world data to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method and show that our method achieves the best in structure Hamming distance, false discovery rate (FDR), and true-positive rate (TPR) matrices.

Causal discovery from observational data is an important but challenging task in many scientific fields. Recently, a method with non-combinatorial directed acyclic constraint, called NOTEARS, formulates the causal structure learning problem as a continuous optimization problem using least-square loss. Though the least-square loss function is well justified under the standard Gaussian noise assumption, it is limited if the assumption does not hold. In this work, we theoretically show that the violation of the Gaussian noise assumption will hinder the causal direction identification, making the causal orientation fully determined by the causal strength as well as the variances of noises in the linear case and by the strong non-Gaussian noises in the nonlinear case. Consequently, we propose a more general entropy-based loss that is theoretically consistent with the likelihood score under any noise distribution. We run extensive empirical evaluations on both synthetic data and real-world data to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method and show that our method achieves the best in Structure Hamming Distance, False Discovery Rate, and True Positive Rate matrices.

The explainability of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) is critical to various GNN applications, yet it remains a significant challenge. A convincing explanation should be both necessary and sufficient simultaneously. However, existing GNN explaining approaches focus on only one of the two aspects, necessity or sufficiency, or a heuristic trade-off between the two. Theoretically, the Probability of Necessity and Sufficiency (PNS) holds the potential to identify the most necessary and sufficient explanation since it can mathematically quantify the necessity and sufficiency of an explanation. Nevertheless, the difficulty of obtaining PNS due to non-monotonicity and the challenge of counterfactual estimation limit its wide use. To address the non-identifiability of PNS, we resort to a lower bound of PNS that can be optimized via counterfactual estimation, and propose a framework of Necessary and Sufficient Explanation for GNN (NSEG) via optimizing that lower bound. Specifically, we depict the GNN as a structural causal model (SCM), and estimate the probability of counterfactual via the intervention under the SCM. Additionally, we leverage continuous masks with a sampling strategy to optimize the lower bound to enhance the scalability. Empirical results demonstrate that NSEG outperforms state-of-the-art methods, consistently generating the most necessary and sufficient explanations.

Learning causal structure among event types from discrete-time event sequences is a particularly important but challenging task. Existing methods, such as the multivariate Hawkes processes based methods, mostly boil down to learning the so-called Granger causality which assumes that the cause event happens strictly prior to its effect event. Such an assumption is often untenable beyond applications, especially when dealing with discrete-time event sequences in low-resolution; and typical discrete Hawkes processes mainly suffer from identifiability issues raised by the instantaneous effect, i.e., the causal relationship that occurred simultaneously due to the low-resolution data will not be captured by Granger causality. In this work, we propose Structure Hawkes Processes (SHPs) that leverage the instantaneous effect for learning the causal structure among events type in discrete-time event sequence. The proposed method is featured with the Expectation-Maximization of the likelihood function and a sparse optimization scheme. Theoretical results show that the instantaneous effect is a blessing rather than a curse, and the causal structure is identifiable under the existence of the instantaneous effect. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

We study the problem of learning hierarchical causal structure among latent variables from measured variables. While some existing methods are able to recover the latent hierarchical causal structure, they mostly suffer from restricted assumptions, including the tree-structured graph constraint, no ``triangle" structure, and non-Gaussian assumptions. In this paper, we relax these restrictions above and consider a more general and challenging scenario where the beyond tree-structured graph, the ``triangle" structure, and the arbitrary noise distribution are allowed. We investigate the identifiability of the latent hierarchical causal structure and show that by using second-order statistics, the latent hierarchical structure can be identified up to the Markov equivalence classes over latent variables. Moreover, some directions in the Markov equivalence classes of latent variables can be further identified using partially non-Gaussian data. Based on the theoretical results above, we design an effective algorithm for learning the latent hierarchical causal structure. The experimental results on synthetic data verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Learning causal structure among event types from discrete-time event sequences is a particularly important but challenging task. Existing methods, such as the multivariate Hawkes processes based methods, mostly boil down to learning the so-called Granger causality which assumes that the cause event happens strictly prior to its effect event. Such an assumption is often untenable beyond applications, especially when dealing with discrete-time event sequences in low-resolution; and typical discrete Hawkes processes mainly suffer from identifiability issues raised by the instantaneous effect, i.e., the causal relationship that occurred simultaneously due to the low-resolution data will not be captured by Granger causality. In this work, we propose Structure Hawkes Processes (SHPs) that leverage the instantaneous effect for learning the causal structure among events type in discrete-time event sequence. The proposed method is featured with the minorization-maximization of the likelihood function and a sparse optimization scheme. Theoretical results show that the instantaneous effect is a blessing rather than a curse, and the causal structure is identifiable under the existence of the instantaneous effect. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.