Hitoshi Hirose

The detection of preslip, occurring hours to days before a large earthquake, using geodetic measurements has been a major focus in earthquake prediction research. A recent study claims to have detected a preseismic signal interpreted as accelerating slip near the hypocenter of the 2011 great Tohoku‐oki earthquake, starting approximately 2 hr before the mainshock. This claim is based on a stacking procedure using GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) data. However, a follow‐up study demonstrated that the signal disappeared when specific GNSS noise was corrected. Here we utilize tiltmeter records, independent on GNSS, to check whether the claimed preseismic signal is detected using a similar stacking procedure. Our results show no acceleration‐like deformation from 2 hr before the mainshock. This indicates that no precursory slip exceeded the noise level of the tilt data, and if any preslip occurred, it was less than 5.0 × 10 ¹⁸ Nm in seismic moment.

Slow slip events (SSEs) lasting for approximately 1 year occur every 6–8 years around the Bungo Channel in the southwest Japan subduction zone. The slip time evolution of the latest Bungo Channel SSE that occurred in 2018–2019 has been studied; however, the detailed spatial and temporal relationship between the slip process and other nearby phenomena, such as tectonic tremors and SSEs, is not well understood. Moreover, the migration of such long-term SSEs from Hyuganada to Shikoku through the Bungo Channel has been suggested, but a slip process connecting the SSEs has not been observed. In this study, we utilized 21 continuous global navigation satellite system (GNSS) stations around the Bungo Channel and Hyuganada that have been installed by us since 2014 in addition to GNSS Earth Observation System (GEONET) stations to improve the spatial resolution of such interplate slip. Based on these data, we estimate the spatial and temporal slip evolutions of the major SSE in 2018–2019, which was accompanied by tremor activity in the deep episodic tremor and slip (ETS) zone, and a smaller SSE in 2015–2016 without tremor activity. We show that the slip area of the major SSE overlaps the ETS zone, whereas that of the smaller SSE does not. This strongly suggests that synchronized tremor activity with an SSE requires a slip close to or overlapping the ETS zone. We also show two distinct slip propagation paths from the Oita area during the 2018–2019 sequence: one is a southward propagation to the Miyazaki area, leading to an SSE around the Miyazaki Plain, and the other is an eastward propagation to an area close to Cape Ashizuri, where “invading slip” is proposed to propagate from the ETS zone to a shallower megathrust source area. These slip propagations may be two of fundamental slip modes that connect slow-slip patch-like areas around the Bungo Channel and Hyuganada. Graphic Abstract

Using global navigation satellite system (GNSS) data to detect millimeter-order signals of short-term slow slip events (S-SSEs) and to estimate their source parameters, especially duration, is challenging because of low signal-to-noise ratio. Although the duration of S-SSEs in the Nankai subduction zone has been estimated using tiltmeters, its regional variation has never been quantitatively studied. We developed an S-SSE detection method to estimate both the fault model and duration with their errors based on the detection methods developed by previous studies and applied it to a 23-year period of GNSS data in the Nankai subduction zone. We extracted S-SSE signals by calculating correlation coefficients between the GNSS time series and a synthetic template representing the time evolution of an S-SSE and by computing the average of correlation coefficients weighted by the predicted S-SSE signals. We enhanced the signals for duration estimation by stacking GNSS time series weighted by displacements calculated from the estimated fault model. By applying the developed method, we detected 284 S-SSEs from 1997 to 2020 in the Nankai subduction zone from Tokai to Kyushu and discussed their regional characteristics. The results include some newly detected S-SSEs, including events accompanying very low-frequency earthquakes and repeating earthquakes in offshore Kyushu. Our study provides the first geodetic evidence for synchronization of S-SSEs and other seismic phenomena in offshore Kyushu. We estimated the cumulative slip and duration, and their error carefully. We also estimated the average slip rate by dividing the cumulative slip by the cumulative duration. This study clarified that the average slip rate in western Shikoku was approximately twice as that in eastern Shikoku and Kyushu. These regional differences were statistically significant at the 95% confidence interval. Multiple factors can influence the regional characteristics of S-SSEs, and we speculate that the subducting plate interface geometry is one of the dominant factors. Graphical Abstract

In the southwest Japan subduction zone, short‐term slow slip events (SSEs) accompanying nonvolcanic tremor (ETS: episodic tremor and slip) occur repeatedly with recurrence intervals of several months. It is important to know the detailed slip areas of the SSEs because short‐term SSEs occur at the downdip extension of a megathrust earthquake rupture zone, and hence, the SSEs play a key role in the stress buildup processes of the megathrust earthquakes. Although most of the previous studies model a SSE fault motion with uniform slip on a rectangular fault, this may lead to a bias in estimating the slip area. In this study we estimate a spatial slip distribution for each of the short‐term SSEs from tilt offset measurements. In total, the slip distributions of 61 SSEs in Shikoku from January 2001 to March 2019 are obtained. The ETS zone in Shikoku is divided into three segments in terms of slip history of the SSEs. Before 2011, the slip areas of most of the SSEs are limited in any one of the three segments. After 2012, however, the number of SSEs having a slip area that extends to multiple segments increases. The slip histories at each position in the ETS zone suggest that the short‐term SSE activity is affected by the occurrence of nearby long‐term SSEs. The average slip rate over 18 years suggests that an estimated slip deficit in the ETS zone in western Shikoku could be released by long‐term SSEs, or coseismic slip or afterslip of the megathrust earthquakes.

We investigated the spatiotemporal evolution of a shallow very low frequency earthquake (sVLFE) swarm linked to the 2009/2010 long‐term slow slip event (SSE) in the Bungo channel, southwestern Japan. Broadband seismograms were analyzed using a cross‐correlation technique to detect sVLFEs having similar waveforms to template sVLFEs, and their relative locations were estimated. The sVLFEs exhibit clear migration over a distance of 150 km along the Nankai trough, similar to nonvolcanic tremors and deep very low frequency earthquakes (dVLFEs) accompanied by short‐term SSEs on the downward extension of the seismogenic zone. This similarity between sVLFEs and dVLFEs suggests that SSEs occur in both deeper and shallower extensions of the seismogenic zone. The analyzed sVLFEs were likely caused by a shallow SSE that occurred from January to March 2010 following the initiation and acceleration of the long‐term SSE. This temporal evolution may be caused by stress interaction between the shallow SSE and the long‐term SSE.

Near the Boso Peninsula, central Japan, slow slip events (SSEs) accompanied by earthquake swarms repeatedly occur every 4 to 7 years. We apply a Network Inversion Filter to tilt change and Global Navigation Satellite Systems displacement data simultaneously in order to obtain the spatiotemporal slip evolution of the Boso Peninsula SSEs in 2007 and 2011. Slip initiates on the eastern offshore area in both of the events and propagates to the northwestward in 2007, whereas the 2011 slip propagates to the west. These slip propagations correlate well both spatially and temporally with the migration of the accompanying seismicity. This indicates that the Boso slow slip is a major driving process for earthquake swarm activities, and that monitoring of interplate slip has the potential to be used in assessing the possibility of an earthquake in near real time.

We numerically simulate slow slip events (SSEs) in the Shikoku region of Japan, incorporating the configuration of the subducting plate. We adopt a rate‐ and state‐dependent friction law with cutoff velocities, assuming a frictional parameter distribution based on observed long‐term SSEs and nonvolcanic tremors that reflects the slip of short‐term SSEs. Our model reproduces recurrences of long‐ and short‐term SSEs and segments of short‐term SSEs. In our simulation, short‐term SSEs' transition from episodic to continuous slip is reproduced. This feature is consistent with tremor activity recently reported in both Shikoku and Cascadia. In addition to the long‐term SSEs in the Bungo Channel, our model also reproduces newly found long‐term SSEs in central Shikoku and predicts that these SSEs recur during the interseismic period between megathrust earthquakes. Our model comprehensively reproduces various SSEs and their characteristics as reported in the Shikoku region.

We investigated temporal changes in seismic velocity associated with active seismic swarms and crustal deformations that occurred in 2006 and 2009 in the eastern Izu peninsula of Japan. To detect changes in seismic velocity during and after these swarm episodes, we used a passive image interferometry technique, by estimating the phase shift of auto‐correlation functions of continuous seismic waveforms in a frequency band of 1–3 Hz. During the 2006 and 2009 swarm episodes, a significant velocity decrease (>0.3%) was detected at the station nearest the swarm area. This velocity decrease occurred when the volumetric strain change at the surface due to magma intrusion was larger than 10⁻⁶. We could not, however, find a clear correlation between the velocity decrease and the peak ground acceleration caused by moderate earthquakes (M ∼ 5) that occurred during the swarms. We also found that during the interseismic period the velocity decrease gradually recovered, and appears to be proportional to displacement at the surface measured by GPS stations. These results suggest that the change in the subsurface velocity structure in the eastern Izu peninsula strongly reflects strain changes caused by magma intrusion into the crust.

Slow slip events (SSEs) are another mode of fault deformation than the fast faulting of regular earthquakes. Such transient episodes have been observed at plate boundaries in a number of subduction zones around the globe. The SSEs near the Boso Peninsula, central Japan, are among the most documented SSEs, with the longest repeating history, of almost 30 y, and have a recurrence interval of 5 to 7 y. A remarkable characteristic of the slow slip episodes is the accompanying earthquake swarm activity. Our stable, long-term seismic observations enable us to detect SSEs using the recorded earthquake catalog, by considering an earthquake swarm as a proxy for a slow slip episode. Six recurrent episodes are identified in this way since 1982. The average duration of the SSE interoccurrence interval is 68 mo; however, there are significant fluctuations from this mean. While a regular cycle can be explained using a simple physical model, the mechanisms that are responsible for the observed fluctuations are poorly known. Here we show that the latest SSE in the Boso Peninsula was likely hastened by the stress transfer from the March 11, 2011 great Tohoku earthquake. Moreover, a similar mechanism accounts for the delay of an SSE in 1990 by a nearby earthquake. The low stress buildups and drops during the SSE cycle can explain the strong sensitivity of these SSEs to stress transfer from external sources.

In the subduction zone of southwest Japan, short‐term slow slip events (SSEs) occur with low frequency tremors (LFTs) at intervals of several months. Recently LFTs have been located with high resolution and their activities have been examined in detail. By setting the generation zones of SSEs such that these zones contain the LFT hypocenters, we simulate SSEs on a 3D plate interface beneath the Kii Peninsula and Tokai regions by using a rate‐ and state‐dependent friction law with a small cut‐off velocity for the evolution effect. Our numerical results show that recurrence intervals of SSEs in the southern and central Kii Peninsula, in the northern Kii Peninsula, and in the Tokai region are 2.5–3.0, 4.8–5.6, and 3.5–4.5 months, respectively, which are consistent with observed SSE activity. Our simulation also produces a multisegment event that propagates from the Kii to Tokai segments at a speed of 10 km/day, which is consistent with observations. The results suggest that generation zones of LFTs coincide with SSE regions and that these two events are different manifestations of the same slip process along the subduction zone. We also perform 3D modeling of faster events accompanied by short‐term SSEs by considering local circular patches with a smaller critical displacement, surrounded by SSE zones with a larger critical displacement. Local circular patches are set at the observed LFT locations. The simulation reproduces fast events that propagate at a speed of 100–200 km/day during a single SSE event.