Jeffrey J. Ploshay

The impacts of climate change on the North America–North Atlantic–Europe sector are studied using a coupled general circulation model: the Climate Model, version 3 (CM3) and a high-resolution atmosphere-only model, the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM)—both developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. The CM3 experiment is conducted under two climate change scenarios for the 1860–2100 period. The sea surface temperature (SST) forcing prescribed in the “time slice” integrations with HiRAM is derived from observations for the 1979–2008 period and projection by CM3 for the 2086–95 period. The wintertime response in the late twenty-first century is characterized by an enhancement of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in sea level pressure (SLP) and poleward and eastward displacements of the Atlantic jet stream and storm track. The forcing pattern due to eddy vorticity fluxes in the perturbed storm track matches well with the response pattern of the SLP field in the late twenty-first century. The model results suggest that the above circulation changes are linked to the gradient of the altered SST forcing in the North Atlantic. In summer, the projected enhancement of convection over the eastern tropical Pacific is accompanied by a wave train spanning the North America–North Atlantic–Europe sector. This quasi-stationary circulation pattern is associated with diminished storm track activity at 40°–50°N and an eddy forcing pattern similar to the summertime SLP response in the late twenty-first century.

El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important air-sea coupled phenomenon that plays a dominant role in the variability of the tropical regions. Observations, atmospheric and oceanic reanalysis datasets are used to classify ENSO and non-ENSO years to investigate the typical features of its periodicity and atmospheric circulation patterns. Among non-ENSO years, we have analyzed a group, called type-II years, with very small SST anomalies in summer that tend to weaken the correlation between ENSO and precipitation in the equatorial regions. A unique character of ENSO is studied in terms of the quasi-biennial periodicity of SST and heat content (HC) fields over the Pacific-Indian Oceans. While the SST tends to have higher biennial frequency along the Equator, the HC maximizes it into two centers in the western Pacific sector. The north-western center, located east of Mindanao, is strongly correlated with SST in the NINO3 region. The classification of El Nino and La Nina years, based on NINO3 SST and north-western Pacific HC respectively, has been used to identify and describe temperature and wind patterns over an extended-ENSO region that includes the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. The description of the spatial patterns within the atmospheric ENSO circulation has been extended to tropospheric moisture fields and low-level moisture divergence during November–December–January, differentiating the role of El Nino, when large amounts of condensational heat are concentrated in the central Pacific, from La Nina that tends to mainly redistribute heat to Maritime Continents and higher latitudes. The influence of the described mechanisms on equatorial convection in the context of the variability of ENSO on longer timescales for the end of the 20th century is questioned. However, the inaccuracy of the atmospheric reanalysis products in terms of precipitation and the shorter time length of more reliable datasets hamper a final conclusion on this issue

Using the historical surface temperature dataset compiled by Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the Hadley Centre of the United Kingdom, this study examines the seasonal and latitudinal profile of the surface temperature change observed during the last several decades. It reveals that the recent change in zonal-mean surface air temperature is positive at practically all latitudes. In the Northern Hemisphere, the warming increases with increasing latitude and is large in the Arctic Ocean during much of the year except in summer, when it is small. At the Antarctic coast and in the northern part of the circumpolar ocean (near 55°S), where limited data are available, the changes appear to be small during most seasons, though the warming is notable at the coast in winter. However, this warming is much less than the warming over the Arctic Ocean. The seasonal variation of the surface temperature change appears to be broadly consistent with the result from a global warming experi... AbstractUsing the historical surface temperature dataset compiled by Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the Hadley Centre of the United Kingdom, this study examines the seasonal and latitudinal profile of the surface temperature change observed during the last several decades. It reveals that the recent change in zonal-mean surface air temperature is positive at practically all latitudes. In the Northern Hemisphere, the warming increases with increasing latitude and is large in the Arctic Ocean during much of the year except in summer, when it is small. At the Antarctic coast and in the northern part of the circumpolar ocean (near 55°S), where limited data are available, the changes appear to be small during most seasons, though the warming is notable at the coast in winter. However, this warming is much less than the warming over the Arctic Ocean. The seasonal variation of the surface temperature change appears to be broadly consistent with the result from a global warming experi...

The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has developed a coupled general circulation model (CM3) for the atmosphere, oceans, land, and sea ice. The goal of CM3 is to address emerging issues in climate change, including aerosol–cloud interactions, chemistry–climate interactions, and coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere. The model is also designed to serve as the physical system component of earth system models and models for decadal prediction in the near-term future—for example, through improved simulations in tropical land precipitation relative to earlier-generation GFDL models. This paper describes the dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component (AM3) of this model. Relative to GFDL AM2, AM3 includes new treatments of deep and shallow cumulus convection, cloud droplet activation by aerosols, subgrid variability of stratiform vertical velocities for droplet activation, and atmospheric chemistry driven by emissions with advective, convective, and turbulent transport. AM3 employs a cubed-sphere implementation of a finite-volume dynamical core and is coupled to LM3, a new land model with ecosystem dynamics and hydrology. Its horizontal resolution is approximately 200 km, and its vertical resolution ranges approximately from 70 m near the earth’s surface to 1 to 1.5 km near the tropopause and 3 to 4 km in much of the stratosphere. Most basic circulation features in AM3 are simulated as realistically, or more so, as in AM2. In particular, dry biases have been reduced over South America. In coupled mode, the simulation of Arctic sea ice concentration has improved. AM3 aerosol optical depths, scattering properties, and surface clear-sky downward shortwave radiation are more realistic than in AM2. The simulation of marine stratocumulus decks remains problematic, as in AM2. The most intense 0.2% of precipitation rates occur less frequently in AM3 than observed. The last two decades of the twentieth century warm in CM3 by 0.32°C relative to 1881–1920. The Climate Research Unit (CRU) and Goddard Institute for Space Studies analyses of observations show warming of 0.56° and 0.52°C, respectively, over this period. CM3 includes anthropogenic cooling by aerosol–cloud interactions, and its warming by the late twentieth century is somewhat less realistic than in CM2.1, which warmed 0.66°C but did not include aerosol–cloud interactions. The improved simulation of the direct aerosol effect (apparent in surface clear-sky downward radiation) in CM3 evidently acts in concert with its simulation of cloud–aerosol interactions to limit greenhouse gas warming.

The simulation of the diurnal cycle (DC) of precipitation and surface wind pattern by a general circulation model (GCM) with a uniform horizontal resolution of 50 km over the global domain is evaluated. The model output is compared with observational counterparts based on datasets provided by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and reanalysis products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The summertime diurnal characteristics over tropical regions in Asia, the Americas, and Africa are portrayed using the amplitude and phase of the first harmonic of the 24-h cycle, departures of data fields during selected hours from the daily mean, and differences between extreme phases of the DC. There is general agreement between the model and observations with respect to the large-scale land–sea contrasts in the DC. Maximum land precipitation, onshore flows, and landward migration of rainfall signals from the coasts occur in the afternoon, whereas peak maritime rainfall and offshore flows prevail in the morning. Seaward migration of precipitation is discernible over the western Bay of Bengal and South China Sea during nocturnal and morning hours. The evolution from low-intensity rainfall in the morning/early afternoon to heavier precipitation several hours later is also evident over selected continental sites. However, the observed incidence of rainfall with very high intensity in midafternoon is not reproduced in the model atmosphere. Although the model provides an adequate simulation of the daytime upslope and nighttime downslope winds in the vicinity of mountain ranges, valleys, and basins, there are notable discrepancies between model and observations in the DC of precipitation near some of these orographic features. The model does not reproduce the observed seaward migration of precipitation from the western coasts of Myanmar (Burma) and India, and from individual islands of the Indonesian Archipelago at nighttime.

A 20-yr simulation using a global atmospheric general circulation model with a resolution of 0.5° latitude × 0.625° longitude is compared with observational findings. The primary goal of this survey is to assess the model performance in reproducing various summertime phenomena related to the continental-scale Asian monsoon in general, and the regional-scale East Asian monsoon in particular. In both model and observed atmospheres, the seasonal march of the precipitation centers associated with the Asian summer monsoon is characterized by onsets occurring earliest over the southeastern Bay of Bengal, followed by rapid northeastward advances over Indochina, the South China Sea–Philippine Sea and the western Pacific, northward evolution in the East Asian sector, as well as northwestward development over the Bay of Bengal, the Indian subcontinent, and the Arabian Sea. This onset sequence is accompanied by southwesterly low-level flows over the rainy regions, as well as northwestward migration of the 200-mb Tibetan anticyclone. Analysis of the heat sources and sinks in various regions illustrates the prominent role of condensational heating in the local energy budget during the mature phases of monsoon development. In accord with observations, the simulated monsoon rains in the East Asian sector are organized about zonally elongated “mei-yu–baiu” (plum rain) systems. These precipitation features advance to higher latitudes during the June–July period, in conjunction with displacements of the axis of the low-level anticyclone over the subtropical western Pacific. A detailed case study is performed on a prominent rainy episode in the simulation. The model is capable of reproducing the observed intense gradients in temperature, humidity, and moist static stability in the vicinity of the mei-yu–baiu front, as well as the spatial relationships between the rainband and the three-dimensional flow field. The axis of the mei-yu–baiu rainband in this event is aligned with the trajectory of a succession of mesoscale cyclonic vortices, which originate from southwestern China and travel northeastward over the Yangtze River basin.

The diurnal cycle of warm-season rainfall over the continental United States and northern Mexico is analyzed in three global atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) from NCEP, GFDL, and the NASA Global Modeling Assimilation Office (GMAO). The results for each model are based on an ensemble of five summer simulations forced with climatological sea surface temperatures. Although the overall patterns of time-mean (summer) rainfall and low-level winds are reasonably well simulated, all three models exhibit substantial regional deficiencies that appear to be related to problems with the diurnal cycle. Especially prominent are the discrepancies in the diurnal cycle of precipitation over the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains and adjacent Great Plains, including the failure to adequately capture the observed nocturnal peak. Moreover, the observed late afternoon–early evening eastward propagation of convection from the mountains into the Great Plains is not adequately simulated, contributing to... Abstract The diurnal cycle of warm-season rainfall over the continental United States and northern Mexico is analyzed in three global atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) from NCEP, GFDL, and the NASA Global Modeling Assimilation Office (GMAO). The results for each model are based on an ensemble of five summer simulations forced with climatological sea surface temperatures. Although the overall patterns of time-mean (summer) rainfall and low-level winds are reasonably well simulated, all three models exhibit substantial regional deficiencies that appear to be related to problems with the diurnal cycle. Especially prominent are the discrepancies in the diurnal cycle of precipitation over the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains and adjacent Great Plains, including the failure to adequately capture the observed nocturnal peak. Moreover, the observed late afternoon–early evening eastward propagation of convection from the mountains into the Great Plains is not adequately simulated, contributing to...

This study examines the sensitivity of the North American warm season diurnal cycle of precipitation to changes in horizontal resolution in three atmospheric general circulation models, with a primary focus on how the parameterized moist processes respond to improved resolution of topography and associated local/regional circulations on the diurnal time scale. It is found that increasing resolution (from approximately 2° to ½° in latitude–longitude) has a mixed impact on the simulated diurnal cycle of precipitation. Higher resolution generally improves the initiation and downslope propagation of moist convection over the Rockies and the adjacent Great Plains. The propagating signals, however, do not extend beyond the slope region, thereby likely contributing to a dry bias in the Great Plains. Similar improvements in the propagating signals are also found in the diurnal cycle over the North American monsoon region as the models begin to resolve the Gulf of California and the surrounding steep terr... Abstract This study examines the sensitivity of the North American warm season diurnal cycle of precipitation to changes in horizontal resolution in three atmospheric general circulation models, with a primary focus on how the parameterized moist processes respond to improved resolution of topography and associated local/regional circulations on the diurnal time scale. It is found that increasing resolution (from approximately 2° to ½° in latitude–longitude) has a mixed impact on the simulated diurnal cycle of precipitation. Higher resolution generally improves the initiation and downslope propagation of moist convection over the Rockies and the adjacent Great Plains. The propagating signals, however, do not extend beyond the slope region, thereby likely contributing to a dry bias in the Great Plains. Similar improvements in the propagating signals are also found in the diurnal cycle over the North American monsoon region as the models begin to resolve the Gulf of California and the surrounding steep terr...

A model diagnosis has been performed on the nocturnal Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ), which is one of the key elements of the warm season regional climate over North America. The horizontal–vertical structure, diurnal phase, and amplitude of the LLJ are well simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), thus justifying a reevaluation of the physical mechanisms for the formation of the LLJ based on output from this model. A diagnosis of the AGCM data confirms that two planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes, the diurnal oscillation of the pressure gradient force and of vertical diffusion, are of comparable importance in regulating the inertial oscillation of the winds, which leads to the occurrence of maximum LLJ strength during nighttime. These two processes are highlighted in the theories for the LLJ proposed by Holton (1967) and Blackadar (1957). A simple model is constructed in order to study the relative roles of these two mechanisms. This model incorporates the diurnal variation of the pressure gradient force and vertical diffusion coefficients as obtained from the AGCM simulation. The results reveal that the observed diurnal phase and amplitude of the LLJ can be attributed to the combination of these two mechanisms. The LLJ generated by either Holton’s or Blackadar’s mechanism alone is characterized by an unrealistic meridional phase shift and weaker amplitude. It is also shown that the diurnal phase of the LLJ exhibits vertical variations in the PBL, more clearly at higher latitudes, with the upper PBL wind attaining a southerly peak several hours earlier than the lower PBL. The simple model demonstrates that this phase tilt is due mainly to sequential triggering of the inertial oscillation from upper to lower PBL when surface cooling commences after sunset. At lower latitudes, due to the change of orientation of prevailing mean wind vectors and the longer inertial period, the inertial oscillation in the lower PBL tends to be interrupted by strong vertical mixing in the following day, whereas in the upper PBL, the inertial oscillation can proceed in a low-friction environment for a relatively longer duration. Thus, the vertical phase tilt initiated at sunset is less evident at lower latitudes.