Soumya Kundu

This report presents multiple new results related to the development of multi-scale analytics and control designs for grid oscillations and stability in presence of large-scale power electronics based resource integration. This work investigates two main oscillation types. In the initial part of the report, we consider wide-area inter-area oscillations under high grid-forming inverter (GFM) penetration. Our findings show that significant integration of GFMs replacing conventional generation alter the conventional coherency structure of the grid, necessitating modifications to wide-area control. We propose a distributed, risk-constrained reinforcement learning–based wide-area control design that accounts for this perturbed coherency. Additionally, we study how GFM droop, inverter capacity, and active power headroom affect natural low-frequency modes in heavily GFM-integrated grids, highlighting the importance of droop tuning. A zeroth-order gradient-based algorithm is proposed to optimize such settings and ensure adequate stability margins. Subsequently, we focus on sub- and super-synchronous control interactions (SSCIs). We extend the Dissipative Energy Flow (DEF) method to detect oscillation paths at faster frequencies, validated through PSCAD EMT cases with superimposed sub and super synchronous oscillations. Using an extended MiniWECC EMT case, we show oscillation propagation through MTDC links between IBR and grid-side resources. To this end, we develop an EMT-in-the-loop learning framework for adaptive SSCI mitigation. Finally, we propose a physics-informed neural learning framework to emulate proprietary inverter dynamics, addressing challenges posed with proprietary inverter models. Our Physics-Informed Latent Neural ODE Model (PI-LNM) integrates physics with learning layers to capture black-box inverter dynamics, improving accuracy in grid simulations and control studies.

Hybrid DC-AC power systems integrating inverter-based resources (IBRs) and multi-terminal high-voltage direct current (MTDC) networks represent a promising architecture for future power grids, while introducing challenges for modeling, stability analysis, and control design. This paper develops a hybrid symbolic-numerical modeling framework and tool to characterize the parametric small-signal stability of DC-AC coupled power systems. The proposed approach constructs parametric state-space models to enable efficient representation of system dynamics under varying control parameters and network configurations, with target parameters retained as symbolic variables and the remainder treated numerically. The stability analysis framework covers eigenvalue, sensitivity, and stability boundary and region characterization. Enhanced linear matrix inequality (LMI) techniques are proposed to directly certify small-signal stability over regions of parameter space while also reducing the conservativeness and computational burden. The resulting tools and frameworks enable rapid parametric model construction across diverse grid conditions, thereby facilitating stability-informed control and operation in DC–AC power systems.

This is the final technical report for the SETO-funded VRN3P project (PNNL# 76914). The goal of this project, led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), in collaboration with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Portland General Electric (PGE), was to develop and validate a deep variational recurrent neural network-based net-load prediction (VRN3P) framework for probabilistic time-series forecasting of day-ahead net-load under high solar penetration scenarios. The project team reports successful design of a novel probabilistic net-load forecasting architecture, comprising of a variational autoencoder and a recurrent neural network, which demonstrates 30% improvement in forecast performance, 60% improvement in training time, and consumes 44% less memory, when compared with conventional baseline models. The team tested the VRN3P model performance on GridLAB-D test-cases representing varying BTM solar penetration levels of 20%, 30%, and 50%, with integrated time-series net-load profiles provided by the utility partner (PGE). The VRN3P model demonstrate <2% hourly MAPE (averaged over the year) for day- ahead net-load forecast on the test scenario with 20% BTM solar. Transfer learning extension of the VRN3P model has demonstrated 8.33× speed-up in training, while still achieving acceptable forecast performance of 2.24% hourly MAPE on the 30% BTM solar penetration test-scenario. A preliminary version of the VRN3P GridAPPS-D™has been developed, along with a web-based interactive user-interface (named ‘Forte’) which has made available on GitHub for public use.

This project demonstrated the effectiveness of RD2C-developed, resilience-driven control strategies on high-fidelity system models with high penetrations of inverter-based resources, under the impacts of unexpected natural events and cyber-physical attacks. Controller performance and overall system resilience were quantified using data from a comprehensive suite of scenarios, and provided a clear understanding on how to operate and deploy these mitigation strategies.

The objective of this work is to develop and demonstrate novel, adaptive, lightweight algorithms that enable the decision-making agents in a large cyber-physical network to act both autonomously and in collaborative harmony to enforce assured resilience across spatiotemporal layers, even under unforeseen adversarial scenarios (e.g., high- impact-low-probability events). Towards this end, the proposed solution will serve as minimally invasive add-on layers that bridge the existing (faster, reactive) local myopic controls and (slower, predictive) centralized optimization. Importantly, the proposed algorithms will enable the multi-agent network to autonomously and collaboratively enforce resilient operation under no or limited communication environment typical of severe cyber- physical adversarial events. The expected outcome of this effort is a suite of prototype, open-source, software algorithms for safety-aware local autonomous and semi-cooperative control (SLAC3R), demonstrated on networked microgrids (via RD2C/Thrust-1 OPAL-RT testbed).

With the emergence of low-inertia microgrids powered by inverter-based generation, there remains a concern about the operational resilience of these systems. Grid-forming inverters (GFMs), enabled by various device-level (primary) and system-level (secondary) control methods, are poised to play a significant role in achieving certain operational objectives, such as the effective utilization of clean energy resources while maintaining stability. However, despite the recent advances in GFMs, there is a lack of suitable controls that can ascertain resilience-constrained operations, like maintaining critical operational safety limits during transients under various cyber-physical disruptions. In this work, we develop decentralized autonomous controllers (DACs) that enforce resilience-constrained operation via local, minimally invasive adjustments (e.g., changes in set-points) while co-existing within the hierarchy of existing (primary and secondary) controls. The DACs work autonomously by sensing only local GFM measurements and act only when operational resilience constraints are violated. The proposed DAC scheme is computationally efficient (only algebraic computations), which enables fast, real-time execution and demonstrates the efficacy of the proposed control framework on GridLAB-D-HELICS-based control-grid co-simulations on the IEEE 123-node networked microgrid. Finally, we show how the developed DACs empower the grid by utilizing the available resources entirely to ensure resilience (maintain frequency safe limits).

Edge-computing methods allow devices to efficiently train a high-performing, robust, and personalized model for predictive tasks. However, these methods succumb to privacy and scalability concerns such as adversarial data recovery and expensive model communication. Furthermore, edge computing methods unrealistically assume that all devices train an identical model. In practice, edge devices have varying computational and memory constraints, which may not allow certain devices to have the space or speed to train a specific model. To overcome these issues, we propose MIDDLE, a model-independent distributed learning algorithm that allows heterogeneous edge devices to assist each other in training while communicating only non-sensitive information. MIDDLE unlocks the ability for edge devices, regardless of computational or memory constraints, to assist each other even with completely different model architectures. Furthermore, MIDDLE does not require model or gradient communication, significantly reducing communication size and time. We prove that MIDDLE attains the optimal convergence rate of stochastic gradient descent for convex and non-convex smooth optimization. Finally, our experimental results demonstrate that MIDDLE attains robust and high-performing models without model or gradient communication.

In a controlled cyber-physical network, such as a power grid, any malicious data injection in the sensor measurements can lead to widespread impact due to the actions of the closed-loop controllers. While fast identification of the attack signatures is imperative for reliable operations, it is challenging to do so in a large dynamical network with tightly coupled nodes. A particularly challenging scenario arises when the cyberattacks are strategically launched during a grid stress condition, caused by non-malicious physical disturbances. In this work, we propose an algorithmic framework -- based on Koopman mode (KM) decomposition -- for online identification and visualization of the cyberattack signatures in streaming time-series measurements from a power network. The KMs are capable of capturing the spatial embedding of both natural and anomalous modes of oscillations in the sensor measurements and thus revealing the specific influences of cyberattacks, even under existing non-malicious grid stress events. Most importantly, it enables us to quantitatively compare the outcomes of different potential cyberattacks injected by an attacker. The performance of the proposed algorithmic framework is illustrated on the IEEE 68-bus test system using synthetic attack scenarios. Such knowledge regarding the detection of various cyberattacks will enable us to devise appropriate diagnostic scheme while considering varied constraints arising from different attacks.

Net load forecasting is crucial for energy planning and facilitating informed decision-making regarding trade and load distributions. However, evaluating forecasting models' performance against benchmark models remains challenging, thereby impeding experts' trust in the model's performance. In this context, there is a demand for technological interventions that allow scientists to compare models across various timeframes and solar penetration levels. This paper introduces a visual analytics-based application designed to compare the performance of deep-learning-based net load forecasting models with other models for probabilistic net load forecasting. This application employs carefully selected visual analytic interventions, enabling users to discern differences in model performance across different solar penetration levels, dataset resolutions, and hours of the day over multiple months. We also present observations made using our application through a case study, demonstrating the effectiveness of visualizations in aiding scientists in making informed decisions and enhancing trust in net load forecasting models.